NFL Handicapping – Week 2 NFC South

NFC South features quality teams top to bottom – by @FairwayJay

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+3)

The New Orleans Saints proved week 1 that they are a different team with Head Coach Sean Payton. The Saints didn’t have much success on the ground but the balance that was missing last year returned as they ran the ball 29 times for 78 yards. Drew Brees used that balance to carve up the Falcons secondary for 357 yards on 35 attempts and two touchdowns.

This weekend they face a good Tampa defense but one that has to overcome the inefficiencies of a slow starting offense. Tampa gave up 254 yards to Jets rookie QB Geno Smith last week and didn’t show the ability to stop the tight end, Kellen Winslow, from dominating the middle of the field. Jimmy Graham is one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL, and the Bucs linebackers could have a tough time containing him this weekend. Tampa is 1-2 in their last three home games against the New Orleans Saints giving up an average of 28 points per game and only scoring an average of 20 ppg. Last year though they were swept by the Saints and allowed an average of 38 ppg.

The  O/U is set for 47 in this contest. That number has only been surpassed once in the past 10 games between these two teams. This Bucs defense may be the best they’ve had in quite sometime with the addition of Darrelle Revis, who looked healthy last week. the Saints defense allowed over 360 yards to the Falcons stronger offense last week; mostly through the air. The Saints defense set a record for futility last season and strong running teams dominated New Orleans at the point of attack. Count on the Bucs to grind on the ground with RB Doug Martin and try to shorten the game and minimize possessions for QB Brees and his weapons in the passing game.

Divergent week 1 results have impacted this line by two points from what would have been the week 1 line. But note that the Saints are 4-1 ATS on this field recently and the Bucs are an awful home Dog going 4-15 last 19 tries. Still, if the Buccaneers can overcome the emotional impact of last weeks loss and force a turnover or two, I like Tampa Bay’s chances with the better running game and defense as home Dog.   Tampa in teasers too.

St. Louis at Atlanta (-6.5)

The Falcons burned their betting backers last week when they failed to punch in the go ahead TD late vs the Saints. Now they return home laying over a TD against a Rams team and coach Fisher in their best role. The Rams rallied late last week for a 27-24 win over Arizona.  St. Louis  went 7-1 ATS on the road last year and also 11-3 ATS as underdog under coach Fisher.  Money is starting to show on the Rams, but must respect Atlanta coach Smith’s 18-5 ATS record off a loss. The Falcons are also 18-10 ATS as home favorite the past four season’s, and have to believe they will rely much more on former Rams running back Steven Jackson as he make his home debut for the Falcons. Jackson only had 11 carries in the opening game loss last week against the Saints, and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter only called 14 running plays total. That’s an issue long term, as team that fail to run the ball at least 20 times in a contest are long-term losing ATS proposition over 80% of the time.

Carolina at Buffalo (+3)

Surprising line on the surface with the Bills a home underdog to the Panthers, who scored just 7 points in defeat last week. But the Bills home loss to the Patriots was not as close as the 23-21 final, as Buffalo was out-gained by 160 yards while allowing 446 yards and 156 rushing yards. The Panthers know how to tote the rock, as QB Newton and RB Williams provide a solid tandem in the backfield. The Bills only had the ball for 22 minutes last week and couldn’t beat New England despite 3 Patriots turnovers. The Panthers did average 5.0 yards per rush while gaining 124 yards on the ground against a stout Seattle defense. While the Bills looked tempting as home ‘Dog, must look at the line of scrimmage and give the Panthers the edge, as their defense is still underrated and strong and will force rookie QB E.J. Manual into some poor decisions. The Bills defensive line is also a strength, so combined with Buffalo’s very good ground game with Spiller and Jackson, this contest is likely to see plenty of rushing attempts. That would usually point me to a ‘under’ the total play, but with the Bills secondary in shambles with injuries and personnel losses, it’s Carolina or pass in my opinion.

@FairwayJay