College Football Handicapping – Betting College Football Rivalries

Handicapping and Betting College Football Rivalries and the Biggest Emotional Games

In seasons past I’ve discussed and written about rivalry and revenge games, last home games, bowl eligibility games and the emotion, momentum and letdown of many of the late season college football games. The next two weeks are the biggest weekends of the college football season for rivalry games, and I’ve outlined some of the situations surrounding many of the meaningful games.

Many poker players enjoy being challenged and try especially hard to outsmart and outplay opponents that they are familiar or even consider ‘rivals’. Sports bettors enjoy the chance to beat their ‘rival’ – the bookmaker – while competing to beat the game and ‘profit’ from the experience. As November football continues, the college football games become bigger and more meaningful, as many rivalry games define a college football team’s season.

Rivalry games are considered the lifeblood of college football and some of the most anticipated games of the season. This is a time when bitter enemies play for personal pride, past players, fans, recruiting wars and state supremacy. The underdog may have a losing record and be playing this as their ‘bowl’ game while also trying to ruin the enemy’s season. These contests attract special attention and coverage from the media, but thousands of fans and alumni across the nation look forward to at least one contest per season; the game against their biggest rival.

These rivalry games present an interesting dynamic from a handicapping and betting perspective, as statistical profiles and won/loss records are often trumped by emotion, intensity and the situational handicapping that is at its contrary peak during rivalry week.  Major line adjustments are made not only from recent results, but the situations surrounding teams such as bowl eligibility, conference title game appearances or in a number of teams cases with upcoming rivalry games – a chance to secure a spot in the BCS playoffs and a shot at the national championship.

Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are the teams at the top of the current Bowl Subdivision Poll ranked by the College Football Selection Committee. And all six of those teams have big rivalry games over the next two weekends.

Nov. 21       Notre Dame at Boston College

Nov. 28       Clemson at South Carolina

Nov. 28       Alabama at Auburn

Nov. 28       Ohio State at Michigan

Nov. 28       Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

Nov. 28       Notre Dame at Stanford

In addition, this weekend features some key rivalry games as Arizona State hosts Arizona for state supremacy and the Territorial Cup while Stanford hosts Cal in the Big Game rivalry with a potential fantastic finish always possible as we’ve already witnessed some remarkable finishes this season in the Michigan State versus Michigan rivalry and Miami’s miracle finish over Duke. I’ve provided some of my game analysis and insight to these games and it should not be a surprise when these big ‘Dogs bark loud and bite hard in these and additional rivalry games.

So as you analyze the teams, statistics and situations surrounding these rivalry games, know that the emotions are high and the pressure to win is often at its peak.  And if you believe that even the biggest ‘Dogs are too ugly to back with your hard-earned money, I’ll remind you that in 2007 we cashed our biggest rivalry game of the season when the Pitt Panthers (+29) upset undefeated West Virginia 13-9 in the Backyard Brawl to knock the Mountaineers out of the national championship picture. Our big puppy ‘Dog also delivered an easy ‘under’ the total winner in that game against the high-powered West Virginia offense; proving again that defenses and intensity levels rise in these emotional rivalry games.

As you evaluate these rivalry games and your opponents, be sure you understand the stats, situations, betting lines and value before you bet, raise or consider going ‘all-in’. Going broke because your emotions caused you to go on tilt is not a disciplined approach or prudent play.

As always, if you don’t have the time, energy, discipline or ability to consistently project point spread winners, get on my bag and I’ll guide you down the fairway and chip-in with your approach to the green. After all, clients and members have enjoyed a sensational football season including our Top Plays, which are on a 28-11 ATS run in college football all the way back to September and NFL continues to be strong with Top Plays 5-1 in November following last week’s Top Play Big Bertha on the early release of the Kansas City Chiefs (+6) in their beat down of the Denver Broncos 29-13. All members are enjoying our SuperContest plays which are 33-16-1 ATS placing us in the Top-15 out of a record 1,727 entries as we push towards a strong finish and potential big-money prize.

Best wishes in your pursuit of profit as you fire for more fairways and green on the gridiron and knock the stuffing out of the bookmaker over Thanksgiving and beyond.