Inside the Numbers Week 13 NFL Betting

Handicapping and analyzing Week 13 stats

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Each week you can listen to my NFL Podcast recorded Friday’s where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday games.

Here are some Week 13 stats of note.

Week 13 NFL favorites went 10-6 straight-up (SU) and 7-9 against the spread (ATS), and for the season betting favorites are now 87-100-4 ATS (46.5%). We have a great week going 6-3 for clients and could have been a special week had the Bears/Seahawks (under 37.5) not blown up late before going to OT, where Seattle scored a TD for the 23-17 win. The Vikings (240 rushing yards!) incredibly did not cover 8 points in a 23-14 loss at Green Bay as Minnesota’s kicker also missed a 42-yard field goal in the closing minutes. The Broncos/Bucks ‘under’ also blew up late. That’s the nature of the NFL as many games and betting results are often decided in the later stages of the fourth quarter. The key is to understand match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are 39-2 ATS this season. Last year they went 34-3 ATS.

Last season (2011) betting favorites went 120-127-9 (48.6%) and in 2010 betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Scoring for the week averaged 40.6 ppg; the second lowest of the season (Week 5 – 40.4 ppg). Over/unders went 7-9 in Week 13.   
 
Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent went 7-4 ATS in Week 13. Our rushing guidelines have now gone 100-33 (75%); right at the 10-year average. If you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to more cashing more tickets and point spread winners. Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more. I’m always more cautious utilizing rushing game parameters late season as situations, playoff scenarios and motivation become more meaningful or lacking for teams that have tossed the towel.

Week 13 big ground gainers in rushing included the Vikings (240 yards/8.6 yards per rush), Bills (232/5.0/46 rushes), Redskins (207/6.7), Eagles (183/7.0), Jets (177/4.1/43 rushes) and Seahawks (176/5.5).

The Chargers (46 yards), Jaguars (50), Bucs (71), Cardinals (81), Raiders (85) and Titans all struggled to get their running game going with less than 21 or less rushing attempts for each team and low rushing yardage. Only the Cardinals covered in defeat, despite just 137 yards at 2.5 yards per play! That’s what a +3 turnover margin will do for betting backers and another example of the true impact of turnovers in the NFL. 

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Browns (475 yards/7.1 yppl), Seahawks (459/6.8), Colts (459/6.2), Packers (435/6.0), Cowboys (417/6.7), Panthers (385/7.5) and Redskins (370/7.1). Inefficient offensive teams included the Cardinals (137/2.5/5 first downs!), Jaguars (236/3.7), Dolphins (277/4.2) and Chargers (297/4.7).

Teams that run the ball for at least 200 yards in a game are 20-5-1 ATS (80%) this season. Teams that run the ball for at least 150 yards in victory are 59-15-1 ATS (79%) this season.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Be sure to listen to my NFL Podcast each week for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay