College Football Handicapping – Powerful and Balanced Offenses

Isolating Powerful And Balanced Offenses – Teams That Run and Pass For At Least 200 yards

As we make the turn at the halfway point of the college football regular season, we can now utilize some stronger statistical numbers in evaluating teams and match-ups.  All BCS conference teams have now played at least two conferences games to give us realistic projections on their performance vs. similar opponents. No more “false favorites” who padded their numbers vs. a soft non-conference schedule.

I annually research and document offensive and statistical profiles of teams, and usually start posting updates near mid-October. One of the indicators I use for offensive strength is not just yards gained or yards per play, but how the teams accumulate those yards.  Addressing opponents and strength of schedule is another factor you must evaluate once you review the numbers and statistical profiles.

Last week we looked at college football’s defensive dominators. This week we look at the offensive side of the ball.  One specific area of strength I pay attention to at this time of year are teams which have strong, balanced offenses. As a guideline, I look for teams who both run and pass the ball for over 200 yards-per-game on average. As of October 16, 2014 there are 16 teams that both run and pass for at least 200 yards per game against FBS opponents.  There were 20 such teams at this time last season and 22 in 2013.  Six teams dropped from this list as of last week with Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, NC State, UCLA and Wyoming.

Note that there are 29 teams that rush for at least 200 yards per game ( 23% of the 128 FBS teams ) and 38 teams that pass for at least 250 ypg, as teams that run for 200+ and pass for 250+ are your most powerful and balanced offensive teams – there are currently 6 such teams  ( 8 at this time last season and 12 in 2013).

The ability to run the football effectively also helps on the defensive side of the ball by keeping a defense fresh.  In past seasons I used 200 yards as the “balanced, power” guideline for both running and passing. However, you may recall in 2006 that offensive production was reduced by nearly 10% with the clock rule changes that season. That didn’t last long.

Currently, there are 41 teams that average at least 420 total yards-per-game on offense; down considerably from last season. Of course, you need to evaluate previous opponents and adjust accordingly based on opponent strength of schedule and the upcoming schedule and opponents defensive strengths to feel more confident in your team’s ability to sustain their offensive production and balance. The power teams can be attractive teams to bet on, especially as an underdog.  If our power team has a strong defense to support this high-powered balanced offense then they often become an even stronger play in an underdog role; a situation I’ve used many times in the past and again this season.

Good defensive coordinators can take an average defense and slow down another team’s offense if they lack balance. Thus, high-powered passing teams that lack a solid running game are susceptible to an inconsistent performance, especially if their own defense is not up to ‘par’ to hold down an opponent.

Update your numbers weekly and pay attention to on-field performance, especially vs. quality opponents. You’ll be laying a pretty big price with some of these power teams in the weeks ahead, so continue to evaluate on-field performance and dig deep into the injury reports as well. Pay attention to key losses and how a team performs so you can project letdown situations and recognize when a team has a match-up edge. As you become more proficient in evaluating team’s strengths and weaknesses, you’ll find yourself with more tap-in birdies, and build your bankroll by getting the green.

Strong, balanced and high-scoring offenses that score at least 30 points per game, run for 200+ YPG and pass for 200+ YPG vs. FBS opponents are listed in the chart below. Note that these are NCAA statistics and rushing yardage and yards-per-rush includes quarterback sack yardage.

Rushing yards, yards per rush ( YPR ), passing yards, yards per pass play/attempt ( YPPL ), points per game ( PPG )

College Football Powerful And Balanced Offenses – Stats vs. FBS Opponents Only Through Oct. 15

Teams	Rushing	YPR	Passing	YP Pass	PPG
Arizona	260	5.6	217	6.7	35
Baylor	344	7.4	366	12.4	63
Florida State	203	5.7	229	7.8	32
Georgia	226	6.1	210	8.2	35
Houston	293	5.4	269	9.3	45
Iowa	200	4.8	205	7.4	32
North Carolina	231	6.9	210	7.6	33
Notre Dame	239	5.9	265	9	38
Ohio State	230	5.8	230	7.9	37
Oregon	285	5.8	203	7.1	37
Stanford	226	5.2	224	9.5	38
TCU	237	6.1	376	9.6	47
Tennessee	224	4.7	208	6.8	34
Texas Tech	200	6.5	439	8.8	51
Tulsa	200	4.01	368	8.9	37
West Virginia	235	4.4	254	7.7	35