NFL Inside The Numbers Week 2

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 2

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 2 provided great opportunities to attack some over-adjustments from Week 1 results, and also a learning experience in understanding the NFL and steering clear of road favorites more often than not. We were able to go 2-1 on our Top Play sides, but still was not a good week in game selection management and missed too many ugly home ‘Dogs that we have discussed previously.  Many public bettors over-reacted to Week 1 results and paid the price riding teams that helped them win in Week 1. Instead, road favorites Tennessee, Miami, St. Louis and even Baltimore lost to inferior teams that few bettors felt comfortable supporting as Cleveland, Jacksonville, Washington and Oakland pulled upsets as home ‘Dogs over those four. In addition, ugly week 1 performances from Tampa Bay had them a big ‘Dog on the road in week 2 and they simply beat New Orleans outright.

When the dust cleared in week 2, all 10 underdogs that covered won the game outright, including our Top Play on the New York Jets (+7) Monday night at Indianapolis. That’s using New England as a ‘Dog as the Bills went from pk to favorite game day.

Here are some Week 2 stats of note.

Week 2 NFL favorites went 6-10 SU and 6-10 ATS.  Scoring was up Week 2 with an average of 47.75 points per game and over/under totals going 7-8-1

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  Three more teams suffered turnover troubles in Week 2 as the Chiefs (5-1), Titans (3-0) and Colts (5-1) all suffered negative turnover margins of 3 or more. Teams in this situation are now 1-5 SU/ and 0-6 ATS this season and just one team last season won the game with a negative 3-or-greater turnover differential.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent ( at least 30 yards ) went 7-4 ATS in Week 2. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners.  Clearly it’s not an easy forecast as few expected the Eagles to struggle again but Philly had just 7 rushing yards on 17 attempts and 226 total yards in a 20-10 home loss to Dallas. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 2 big ground gainers in rushing included the Vikings (199 rush yards/42 attempts), Redskins (182/37), Bengals (175/36) and Panthers (172/33). The Cowboys and Jaguars dominated the ground game and point of attack play with margin rushing edges in victory with 113 and 123 rushing yards, while the Titans (166/30), Bills (160/27) and Chiefs (144/29) had big edges in rushing but could not overcome at least three turnovers and penalty problems in defeat.

The Eagles (7/17), Lions (38/16), and Dolphins (42/16), Texans (61/23) and Rams (67/13) all struggled to get their running game going in defeat and so too did the Patriots (56/15) and Broncos (61/22) in victory.

But the point of all this is that rushing stats and point of attack play often trumps passing prowess a majority of the time. When you have Tom Brady (451 passing yards) or a few other top-tier quarterbacks that can overcome a poor ground game or use it as a short passing attack, sometimes a lack of a running game pays off.  But regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL. We have the adjust to the rules and changes in the game allowing for more passing game success and now more scoring in recent seasons, but the game is still about blocking, tackling, running and catching and the team that controls the line of scrimmage and establishes a running game (or more attempts) is often the team that comes out on top.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 2 victories were the Patriots (507 yards/6.7 yards per play ), Steelers (453/8.7), Bengals (389/6.3), Falcons (402/5.7), Raiders (448/6.8), Jaguars (396/6.0) and Redskins (373/5.7).  Inefficient offensive teams included the Rams (213/4.6), Eagles (226/4.1), Lions (323/4.6 ), Saints (323/4.7) and Broncos (299/4.3) in victory.  The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.