Handicapping NFL Week 1

Handicapping NFL Week 1 and Noting Line Moves and Past Results

The betting lines have been out for months and Week 1 has finally arrived as the regular season kicks off this week. We’ve seen some significant line movement on games as noted below along with some totals moves.

Injuries and player movement effect some of the adjustments, but much of the early lines are predicated on last season’s results. That’s why Week 1 of the regular season is often contrary and last year’s six outright underdog winners support such a claim. Underdogs went 11-5 ATS in Week 1 last season using the closing lines and we’ll see plenty more upsets this season as eight home underdogs suit up in Week 1.

Shopping is always important, and recall last season when NY Jets bettors were bemoaning the Raiders late TD to lose by 5 in Week 1 as many bet the closing number game day with the Jets -6. New York bettors had many weeks and even days before opening kickoff Sunday to lay less than 5 points.  

Here are the noted line moves heading into Week 1 from the opening numbers months ago to the lines in bold as of August 28. I’ve noted the 11 additional line moves since and current as of September 8. Patriots QB Tom Brady’s overturned suspension has taken the line back up for Thursday’s opening game. Minnesota is the biggest line move Monday night from underdog to a 2.5-point favorite.

Pittsburgh at New England (-6.5 / -3) – Now -7  

Green Bay at Chicago (+4, +6.5)  – Now +7

Kansas City at Houston (-2, -1.5) – Now -1

Cleveland at NY Jets (-1.5, -3)

Indianapolis at Buffalo (+3, +2.5) – Now +3

Miami at Washington (+2.5, +3) – Now +4

Carolina at Jacksonville (+3.5, +3)

Seattle at St. Louis (+3.5, +3.5) – Now +4

New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5, -2.5)

Detroit at San Diego (-1.5, -2.5) – Now -3

Tennessee at Tampa Bay (-3, -3)

Cincinnati at Oakland (+3, +3.5)

Baltimore at Denver (-4.5, -4) – Now -4.5

NY Giants at Dallas (-5.5, -5.5) – Now -6

Philadelphia at Atlanta (+1.5, +1) – Now +3 Monday night

Minnesota at San Francisco (-3.5, +1) – Now +2.5 Monday night

Below I’ve outlined a situation that may help you in your initial evaluation and Week 1 analysis with so many tightly lined games this season,

Teams that won 7 or more games last season and are road underdogs of less than 7 points have covered just 35% of their games over the past 100+ occurrences. There are six teams that fit that profile in Week 1. You can do a little research to determine those six teams as part of this profile, or EMAIL ME ([email protected]) and I’ll fire you those teams in this negative base profile. 

Also, many bettors can’t stomach betting on the ‘bad’ teams, even if the value supports such. Yet teams that won 6 games or less last year have covered better than 56% of their Week 1 games over the last 140+ occurrences. However, when we add the parameter of those teams as road underdog of less than 7 points we see a strong historical situation that has proven very profitable as these ‘ugly’ underdogs cover at a 74% ATS rate on the last 60+ occurrences. A few teams fit this Week 1 profile, and you can request those in an email to me or follow me on Twitter and send a tweet or direct message.

In addition, there are five teams that open the season with back-to-back road games. Should any of these teams lose their road opener as underdog and find themselves as underdog again, we’ll be looking their way with a solid proven profile in Week 2.

Follow along for more ‘Fairway Facts’, insight and analysis and best wishes in your pursuit of profit this season.