NBA Conference Finals

Western Conference Finals

Golden State (-800) vs. Houston (+575)

The Warriors are a huge favorite in the Western Conference finals. Both the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets  won over 68% of their games during the regular season, and I have some strong situations and proven, profitable profiles in this series between Class A teams that will also include some historically strong totals plays.

League MVP Stephen Curry & runner-up James Harden settle the score in Western Conference Finals

Some of those did not work out in the LA Clippers and Houston Rockets series, as those teams played six straight playoff games over the total before Game 7 stayed under total and Members were rewarded with a Rockets side and total recommendation winner.  The Warriors were 4-0 vs. the Rockets in the regular season out-scoring Houston by an average of 115-100 and out-shooting the Rockets 50% to 40% FG. Here is a series preview of the Warriors and Rockets including the strong shooting display expected between league MVP Stephen Curry and runner-up James Harden.

Golden State was the best team in the league and finished the regular season on a 21-3 run and are 8-2 in the playoffs entering the Western Conference finals. The betting public will continue to ride the Warriors in the Western Conference finals series as well as Game 1 against the Rockets, but Houston does fit some solid Game 1 profiles with both teams entering the finals on a 3-0 SU/ATS run.

Eastern Conference Finals

Cleveland (-200) vs Atlanta (+170)

The Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers were the top two teams during the regular season and each team is also Class A (>.665).  Despite being the No. 1 seed and going 3-1 SU/ATS against the Cavaliers during the regular season, the Hawks find themselves a sizeable underdog in the series. All four games during the regular season were decided by 8 or more points.

The Hawks have led the regular season in assist rate each of the last three years, and Atlanta has assisted on 67.6 percent of their field goals; the highest mark of this year’s playoffs.

The Cavaliers have been the best first-half team in the playoffs outscoring opponents by over 18 points per 100 possessions. No other team has been better than +7.7 in the first half.

LeBron James has shot 7-for-46 from 3-point range, the worst mark among players with at least 20 attempts.

Here is a number preview of the Hawks – Cavaliers series.

Here is a look at some previous history of teams that entered the conference finals on a roll and some of the best teams in the NBA that did not reach the NBA finals.  Golden State is 8-2 in the playoffs and on a 29-5 run.

In 2012 the San Antonio Spurs won 18 straight games and entered the Western Conference finals on a 8-0 playoff run. The Spurs won Game 1 against the Thunder but failed to cover (-5.5), and then beat the Thunder 120-111 in Game 2; the first time San Antonio allowed at least 100 points in 10 playoff games. Riding an 18-game winning streak, the top-seed Spurs lost the next four games to the Thunder, all by five or more points while ending their season on a 0-4 ATS run.

In 2009-10, the Orlando Magic were on a 28-3 run following a sweep of their first two playoff series. The Magic (-6.5) lost game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals to the Celtics 92-88 and lost the series 4-2.

In 2008-09, the Cleveland Cavaliers were on a 13-1 run including 8-0 in the opening two rounds of the NBA playoffs. Overall, the Cavs were on a 26-3 run heading into the NBA finals before losing the opening game to the Orlando Magic 107-106 as 8.5-point favorites. The Cavaliers went 66-16 during the regular season including 39-2 at home. Seemingly invincible with LeBron James, the Cavaliers lost in the Eastern Conference finals series to the Magic 4-2 despite James averaging 40 pgg.

In 2004-05, the Miami Heat were on a 11-0 run entering the Eastern Conference finals but lost Game 1 to the Detroit Pistons 90-81 as 3.5-point favorites. The Heat lost Game 7 on their home court.

There are additional examples going back to the late 1980’s of powerful teams on hot runs entering the conference championship round that did not deliver or advance to the NBA finals. However, note that the 2000-01 LA Lakers put on one of the most dominating displays in NBA history, finishing the regular season with eight straight wins and then going 15-1 in the NBA playoffs with their only loss in overtime in the NBA finals.

Now you know some of the historical situations surrounding dominant teams, and the Warriors will have to beat a strong and resilient Houston team to reach the NBA finals.