College Basketball Handicapping – Sweet Sixteen Top Seeds

Sweet Sixteen Top Seeds

The Sweet Sixteen tips off Thursday, March 26, and I thought I would take you inside the numbers with past results for #1 seeds.  The past performance of Sweet Sixteen top seeds is proven, as #1 seeds are 82-22 SU since 1985.  Of note is that these top seeds are 23-0 SU vs. teams seeded #6 or greater.

This year’s three remaining #1 seeds and Sweet Sixteen pairings are listed below.

#1 Kentucky ( -13.5 ) vs. #5 West Virginia – Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

#1 Wisconsin ( -6 ) vs. #4 North Carolina – Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA

#1 Duke ( -5.5 ) vs. #4 Utah – Houston, TX

So with history as our guide, note that #1 seeds are 59-22 SU vs. teams seeded #4 or #5.  Recent history shows three #1 seeds losing the last two years to #4 seeds.

2014

#1 Virginia ( +2.5 ) lost to #4 Michigan State 61-59

2013

#1 Indiana ( -5 ) lost to #4 Syracuse 61-50

#1 Kansas ( -1 ) lost to #4 Michigan 87-85 in OT

In 2012, another #1 seed lost to #4 seed

#1 Michigan State ( -5.5 ) lost to #4 seed Louisville 57-44

In 2011, two more upsets of #1 top-seeded teams

#1 Ohio State ( -5.5 ) lost to #4 Kentucky 62-60

#1 Duke ( -9.5 ) lost to #5 Arizona 93-77

There is another statistical profile that points to #1 seeds being more vulnerable to losing to a #4 or #5 seed in this round.  It’s a solid situation that uses scoring margin as another criteria in pointing to Sweet Sixteen winners.  Email me if you would like these situations – [email protected].

If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to consistently research stats and profiles that produce profit, then become a Fairway Follower and join me as a Member for the rest of the NCAA Tourney.

Best wishes in the Sweet Sixteen and beyond, and may you profit from the experience.