College Football Handicapping – Late Season Fatigue

Evaluating Emotion and Identifying Signs Of Late Season Fatigue

We’re in the closing weeks of the college football season and late season fatigue, emotion and defensive erosion needs to be evaluated.  Emotion can play a significant part of handicapping college football, and no greater time than late season when rivalry games, last home games, conference titles and a final four playoff berth are at stake.  Same too with teams out of the bowl game picture ( towel tossers ), as their season has been lost and especially disappointing for players and teams that had higher expectations.  While many handicappers including myself analyze and apply statistical profiles of teams, there is a real opportunity to uncover more point spread winners if you understand emotion and the human element of physical wear and tear on players and teams as they push towards the finish.

The conundrum of momentum vs. letdown and determining whether a team will play to their potential and stat profiles is part of the point spread puzzle.  The big rivalry games are at the forefront of the late November schedule and add another incentive and motivation to all teams whether they are experiencing a winning or losing season.

But the wear and tear of a long season brings a number of factors into consideration as players battle bumps, bruises and try to continue at a peak performance level.   One way to identify teams that are wearing down and showing signs of fatigue is through an evaluation of recent results and note some erosion in defensive performance and statistical profiles.  Review team schedules and note teams that have played stronger opponents week after week and know it’s more difficult to sustain a strong and high-level of play following a number of tough, grinding games.

Such was the case with Utah last week at home vs. Oregon, as I tweeted that the Utes could be wearing down following five-straight Pac-12 games decided by 3-points or less in regulation.  We had a play on the Ducks, and while Utah was facing the juggernaut offense of Oregon, it should still be noted that the fatigue factor following a string of big games cannot be discounted in the final result; a 51-27 destruction by the Ducks in which Utah’s defense allowed 504 yards after allowing an average of less than 385 YPG and just 21 PPG in their previous 8 games.

In my articles providing team’s bye week schedules, you can note that a late-season bye becomes more valuable to teams as they regroup and become refreshed for the upcoming games.  Even playing a lesser non-conference opponent can be an advantage as big conference teams get a reprieve from the weekly grind of a tougher conference schedule.  Perhaps that will prove such for #1 Mississippi State this week when they travel to Tuscaloosa to take on #5 Alabama in a most meaningful game for final four playoff positioning.   Note that Alabama had a bye November 1 and is off their grueling 20-13 overtime win at LSU last week in which the Tigers pounded the ground with 56 rushing attempts against the ‘Tide.

Same too with emotion as teams like Ohio State are in a significant letdown situation at Minnesota following a ‘all-in’ effort in their win at Michigan State last week.  That 49-37 redemption win allowed the Buckeye’s to take over first-place in the Big Ten East division over the Spartans.

Along with the fatigue factor and situational handicapping comes the late season weather watch, as some teams have been playing in warmer and hot weather and that also wears down players and their body as they try to compete in some meaningful late-season games.  Colder and/or windy weather requires players to battle through the elements, which can be more mentally draining and affect performance.

Note too teams that run a spread offense and/or play at a faster pace to run more plays, as often times those teams defenses are on the field for more plays which of course wears them down.  Longer games and more energy exerted by these defense.  We took advantage of such a situation in October when Cal went through a three-game stretch of high-scoring shootouts in which their defense was on the field an equivalent of closer to 16 quarters instead of 12 over a 3-game stretch.  Washington was rested and ready off a bye and delivered us an easy 31-7 winner as a underdog.

A simple stats search of opponent’s plays per game will show you that the Cal Golden Bears allow nearly 88 plays per game against; as their defense is on the field for more plays than any other team in the country.  You can segment those stats and evaluate team’s last three games vs. season-long stats, and apply the potential late-season fatigue by noting statistical variances in performance.

Teams that have allowed an average of 83 or more plays against over the last three games ( approx. 10 more plays per game than the national average ):

Arizona, Ball State, Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas, Marshall, Maryland, New Mexico, MTSU, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA and USC

As you evaluate these late-season contests, dig deeper into not only the stats, but recognize the situations involving momentum, letdown and the fatigue factor.  Grade out a team’s performances in recent weeks based on the emotional and physical toll it took on them and the energy they put forth.  Use a 1-10 scale, and I use this in predicting such energy and emotion for teams before the season even starts.  Ohio State vs. Michigan State?  Max energy and grade for both teams, and especially the Buckeye’s. When you can identify teams that are likely to be worn out and/or not at their emotional peak to deliver a quality performance, you’ll have another edge against the bookmaker and start to realize even more value in the point spread.

Your power ratings, stat profiles and evaluations are still significant and you clearly have to make adjustments, but as you become more proficient in identifying emotional and fatigue factors and add this to your arsenal, you’ll cash more winners.   That’s because you understand a team is not going to bring their best or play to their potential ( letdown ) and stat profiles because they just don’t have enough gas left in the tank.  Thus, you’ll not only cash more ( easy ) winners, but not be surprised when a team like Texas A&M ( +23 ) wins outright over Auburn ( 41-38 on November 8 ), as you’ll look back and realize that Auburn was physically and emotionally spent following their back-and-forth grueling game against Ole Miss in which they escaped with a late 35-31 win.  That game followed a 42-35 shootout against South Carolina in which the Tigers defense was on the field for 86 plays.

As you see, attrition and the fatigue factor is real at this time of the season, and if you can identify such situations you’re going to have more tap-in birdies and point-spread winners.