Issue 6 – Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ERS – Monday November 19, 2012

Backup QB’s will lead the Bears (7-2) and 49er’s (6-2-1) when Chicago visits San Francisco for a Monday Night Football marquee match-up. Weather will be a non-factor with game time temps near 60 degrees and lighter winds at Candlestick Park. Quarterbacks Jay Cutler and Alex Smith have both been ruled out with concussion symptoms following last week’s games and Jason Campbell and Colin Kaepernick will make their first starts of the season in the national spotlight game. The betting lines have adjusted with the 49er’s bet down to a 3-point favorite and total also down to 35.

The Bears run the ball an average of 29 times per game, but will find it difficult to penetrate the point of attack against a 49er’s front that allows just 95 rushing ypg and 3.7 ypr. The Bears run defense is equally tough (92/4.2), but will try to slow the 49er’s #1 rush offense averaging 170 ypg and 5.6 ypr led by Frank Gore (753 yards) and Kendall Hunter (316 ypg). The difference tonight is that QB Kaepernick brings additional mobility and run/pass option with great running and scrambling ability to extend plays and avoid pressure. In limited playing times and roles this season, Kaepernick has run for 8.4 ypr on 21 carries with 3 TD’s and 61% completions for 200 yards and nearly 8 yards per pass attempt.

Campbell has been an adequate QB in his NFL career but seems to struggle with coverage and check downs. In nine games this season the Bears have only gained more than 360 yards two times. They won’t reach that on the road with Campbell at QB as the Bears turn to their running game even more and dump offs in the passing game. San Francisco’s pass defense is solid and ranks top-5 in the NFL, so it’s tough to envision a less-than-accurate passer like Campbell consistently connecting to his big-play receiver Brandon Marshall (67/904 yards) when the 49’ers can focus on him with no other Bears WR having over 200 yards receiving this season. Running back Matt Forte will be the focus in the running game and he has the team’s second-most receptions (22). San Francisco has held four opponents to 6-points or less but were beaten on this field by the NY Giants 26-3 as the Giants similar running game to the Bears pounded the ball 37 times on the ground for 149 yards. That’s easier to do when you have a big lead and Eli Manning at QB, but the Bears are unlikely to get out in front unless their strong defense and special teams create big plays, turnovers or touchdowns. The 49ers also have excellent special teams units and those specialty players on both sides could play a big role in field position and game-changing plays tonight.

The Bears just held a similar balanced offense of Houston with a strong running game to 215 yards and 3.5 yards per play in a 13-6 home loss (sub-par weather). The Bears managed just 8 first downs and 249 yards at 4.4 yards per play (NFL Ave 5.4) last week against Houston, and Chicago’s offense has struggled in step-up games scoring just 6, 13 and 10 points vs. three better teams of Houston, Detroit and Green Bay. The Bears defense and turnovers were the difference against Dallas and similar in their opening week win over Indianapolis, who showed us yesterday again how suspect their defense is when the Colts were blasted by the Patriots 59-24 (a winner for us). The Bears defense has been the league’s best holding opposing quarterbacks to the lowest combined QB rating, and note the Bears have faced some top-tier QB’s this season.

San Francisco led the league last season with a +28 turnover ratio. This season their defense is actually stronger and stingier despite less takeaways. They are very physical and aggressive. The development of third cornerback Chris Culliver and solid play by starting CB’s Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown have helped the 49ers become a top-tier pass defense. Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio’s system accounts for various looks and mixes coverage well. The 49ers are also playing more man coverage with their safeties over the top than they did last year, which seems to suit their secondary. While there is less sacks and INT’s, the 49ers are allowing fewer passing yards and less than 60% completions. They have the players, schemes and ability to double-cover the Bears only reliable passing game threat in WR Brandon Marshall.

I keep various statistical and point spread stats and profiles in NFL games. In competitively lined contests (6 points or less), the straight up (SU) winner of the game covers the point spread just over 90% of the time (92% last year and 91% this year on over 100 games). In other words, you should consider betting a portion of your bankroll on the money line (ML) if you like underdogs in these competitively-priced NFL games, as they also win outright enough to make the ML a worthy wager. If you like the favorites in these games, the betting line rarely comes into play so if the favorite wins they also cover a large majority of the time. If fact over the past 5 weeks, NFL favorites of 6 or less points that won the game SU are 25-1 ATS. The only favorite to win the game and not cover the competitive point spread? The Ravens (-3) last night in their 13-10 win over Pittsburgh (a winner for us on the Steelers). Clearly it’s not easy to even pick the SU winner in these competitively-lined games. But I prefer the San Francisco side this week and the line is actually being bet down with Monday’s announcement of QB Alex Smith being ruled out.

Despite a low total and some playmakers on offense, defense and special teams, this should still be a game dominated by two very physical and strong defenses that each rank top-5 in yards allowed. The Bears lead the NFL in takeaways and touchdowns, and Kaepernick could struggle in the passing game under pressure. But his mobility and ability to make plays on the move could be a real bonus against the Bears. Campbell has started 70 games in six seasons, but I still don’t trust him in this road match-up to make key passing plays on third down to keep drives alive. Technically speaking, teams with winning records are just 27-50-1 ATS (35%) on the road on Monday night if they lost their previous game. Fairway’s Forecast calls for a 49er’s lower-scoring victory.

Stay on course,

FairwayJay