Betting The ‘Dogs – Analysis of a Winning Wager

Mississippi State Rolls Over LSU – My Analysis Of A Winning Wager

This past Saturday we released our one and only 20* Top Play Big Bertha on Mississippi State (+10) and the Bulldogs went into Baton Rouge and buried LSU 34-29.    Mississippi State took tons of money game day and closed +7 as money line bettors were also rewarded with a big 3-1 price as the Bulldogs rolled-up 570 yards offense and dominated the point of attack with a 302-89 rushing edge.

I’ve mentioned previously that I write-up at least 20 CFB and NFL games per week.  Not all these games are worthy wagers but Mississippi State was our strongest play thus far this season.  I’ll write more in the weeks ahead about point of attack play and power offensive teams that run and pass for at least 200 yards per game.  You’ll see in my game analysis below the strength of Mississippi State this early season and that the Bulldogs win was no fluke. These (Bull) Dogs are the real deal and and one to watch in the SEC as I pointed out in my preseason foecast on Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs completed another winning week as Full Card Club members enjoyed a 7-4 CFB week on all plays and opinions provided and college football Top Plays are now 6-3 this season.  Over the past 2 weeks our CFB & NFL Top Plays are a combined 7-2 including 3-0 on 20* Big Bertha’s!  Get on my bag and join the hundreds who win thousands with Fairways Forecast.

LSU head coach Les Miles is 9-0 against Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs have only been within 10-points once since Dan Mullen became Mississippi State’s head coach in 2009.  But this year’s contest is expected to be closely contested as the Bulldogs are much improved.  Both teams open SEC play, and the Tigers are 57-7 SU at home under 10^th year head coach Les Miles while the Bulldogs are 0-10 SU against top-10 teams under Dan Mullen.  Those logs just give us value with this quickly-improving hungry underdog.

Mississippi State has rolled up at least 35 points in each of their first three games against lesser foes while holding two of them to 3-points or less.  The Bulldogs defense has 8-returning starters that allowed 14 points or less in their final four games last year and are playing stronger this early season.  The secondary is solid and the defensive front seven has been superb holding opponents to less than 2.5 YPR with senior DE Preston Smith playing better than any linemen in the SEC this season.  They will be challenged by LSUs open offensive attack, but Tigers sophomore QB Anthony Jennings has only completed 52% of his passes for 566 yards including just 43% against an inexperienced Wisconsin secondary in a 28-24 win.   LSU has relied on their stretch-and-hammer zone running game early this season with nearly a 3:1 run/pass play selection.  However, the Bulldogs defensive front is the strongest LSU has faced and will find it more difficult to penetrate and score in order to cover the double-digit impost. Mississippi State’s defensive profile shows them dominating at the point of attack allowing just 80 rushing YPG and 2.3 YPR this season.  Sure LSU is stronger and will pound the ground, but Mississippi State has the point of attack play on both sides of the ball to battle LSU and the points are plentiful for this barking Bulldog.

One of my favorite mid-to-late season situations to support is a underdog that has a strong balanced offense that both runs and passes for at least 200 yards.  The stats are more supportive with less variance than early season when teams pile up points and stats against weaker opponents. However, Mississippi State has piled up 260 rushing YPG at 5.3 YPR through 3 games and the Bulldogs have passed for 266 YPG and 9.0 Yards per pass play led by QB Dak Prescott.

The Bulldogs are on a 7-1 ATS run dating to last season and 4-0 ATS in SEC play.  The under is 6-1 in Mississippi State’s last seven road games and the Bulldogs are also on a 5-1 ATS run vs. a team with a winning record.  The motivation and momentum of a near equal Mississippi State team should give LSU everything they can handle Saturday night with a raucous environment in Death Valley in Baton Rouge.  LSU is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win and have covered less than 40% of their home games overall the past 10 years

LSU head coach Les Miles says Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott is as good a quarterback as there is in the SEC.  He’s a NW Louisiana native and a big, tough, passionate player and a true dual-threat who has passed for nearly 10 yards-per-pass and 700 yards with 9 touchdowns.  He’s also rushed for nearly 7 YPR, 2 TDs and 273 yards.  His four top WRs return including three seniors and RB Josh Robinson has over 6.2 YPR and 288 rushing yards.  But LSUs pass defense has allowed just 94 passing YPG this season and 40% completions.  A closely-contested game is expected and no surprise to this bureau if Mississippi State beats LSU for the first time since 1999.