NFL Inside the Numbers Week 2

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 2

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 2 provided great opportunities and I sent a email notice to all registered members at VegasSportsZone.com that a big week was forthcoming.   Note registration is free, but we delivered as expected to paid members with a 6-3 week including 2-0 on our Top Play 20* Big Bertha plays and 3-1 on all Top Plays.  That included outright underdog winners on the Bills, Browns, Rams, Bears and Eagles.  Many bettors over-react to Week 1 results and often weekly results in general, and we took advantage with some solid underdogs and situational play.

Join me this week as we shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron as we shoot for even more profit and success following a 10-4 combined week in CFB and NFL action last week.

Here are some Week 2 stats of note.

Week 2 NFL favorites went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS and are 18-14 SU and 12-20 ATS this season.  Scoring was down in Week 2 with an average of 42.6 PPG after Week 1 showed 44.75 PPG.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  Seven teams suffered turnover troubles in Week 2 as the Steelers (3-0), Lions ( 3-0 ), NY Giants ( 4-0 ), Vikings ( 4-0 ), Falcons ( 3-0 ), Raiders ( 4-0 ) and 49ers ( 4-0 ) all suffered negative turnover margins of 3 or more. Teams in this situation are now 0-10 SU/ATS this season.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent ( at least 30 yards ) went 10-3 ATS in Week 2. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners.  Clearly it’s not an easy forecast as few expected the Cowboys limited running game and attempts to explode at Tennessee ( 43/220 yards ) in their 26-10 Week 2 road win.  For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 2 big ground gainers in rushing included the new-look Cowboys ( 220 rush yards/43 carries ), Redskins ( 191/42 ), Texans ( 188/46 ), Bengals ( 170/45 ), Ravens ( 157/36 ) and Patriots ( 150/37 ).  The Saints lost despite 174 rushing yards and a 52 yard ground-game advantage over the Browns, but Cleveland ran the ball 30 times themselves and were getting over a TD as a home underdog in a good situation.  Note all those teams ran the ball at least 30 times and went 6-0 SU/ATS, and I’ll discuss the importance of that statistic and use in handicapping in future articles.

The Jaguars ( 25/10 ), Vikings ( 54/19 ), Lions ( 70/18 ) and Titans ( 82/13 ) all struggled to get their running game going and went a combined 0-4 SU/ATS.  The Bears ( +7 ) rallied to win  28-20 at San Francisco despite just 46 rushing yard and 17 attempts.

But the point of all this is that rushing stats and point of attack play again trumps passing prowess a majority of the time.  So regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Bengals ( 472 yards/6.8 yards per play ), Eagles (458/7.0), Packers ( 390/5.8 ) and Redskins ( 449/5.5 ).  Inefficient offensive teams included the Jaguars ( 148/3.1 ), Bears ( 216/4.2 ), Vikings ( 217/3.6 ),  Cardinals ( 266/4.4 ) and Dolphins ( 290/3.9 ).  The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay