NFL Handicapping – Analyzing The Division Odds And Potential Playoff Teams

NFL Handicapping – Which Teams Will Emerge As This Year’s Surprise Playoff Teams?

While many prognosticators and media members will focus on the NFL favorites when analyzing the division odds and potential playoff teams, history tells us some surprises are ahead.  There will be some surprise teams again this year as the turnover each playoff season is worth noting.  Over the past six seasons, the AFC and NFC have seen the following number of new teams in the playoffs from the previous season.

Year  AFC    NFC

2013 –  2       3

2012 –  1        3

2011 –  3       4

2010 –  3       3

2009 –  1       5

2008 –  3       3

So you can see on average that nearly half the teams ( 6 ) each playoff season were not in the playoffs the previous year, and the NFC has had the most turnover over the past six seasons.  Last season Carolina and Philadelphia won their divisions and were #2 and #3 seeds after missing the playoffs the previous season. Kansas City went from 2 wins to 11 wins and a #5 seed.  Defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore and 12-win Houston were considered serious conference contenders, and both missed the playoffs and the Texans fell off the cliff and won just 2 games.

In 2011 Houston and Denver were new division champs and #3 and #4 seeds while San Francisco surprised everyone with 13 wins to win the NFC West and secure a #2 seed.  In 2010 Atlanta was a surprise team with 13 wins and the #1 seed in the NFC while Chicago was the #2 seed after missing the playoffs the previous season. The New Orleans Saints broke through in 2009 and won the Super Bowl as a #1 seed after missing the playoffs the previous year.

So before you buy into any sure thing in predicting a division winner, conference champ or Super Bowl winner, know that the turnover of playoff teams from one season to the next is fairly significant.  Injuries along with scheduling can play a pretty big part in a team’s winning success and push to the playoffs and division titles.  Who are this year’s surprises and potential playoff turnover teams that can unseat last year’s playoff teams below?

In the NFC the Bears and Lions look like candidates to break through and emerge with a playoff position while the AFC has the potential for some big surprises with fewer teams showing strength – see the KC Chiefs last season.

 

Last year’s playoff teams were as follows:

Denver Broncos                 Seattle Seahawks

New England Patriots          Carolina Panthers

Cincinnati Bengals               Philadelphia Eagles

Indianapolis Colts                Green Bay Packers

Kansas City Chiefs              San Francisco 49ers

San Diego Chargers            New Orleans Saints

 

A look at the NFL odds to win the divisions is below.  This from CG Technology, operator of the Venetian Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas with current odds as of August 20, 2014 and previous odds following last season on February 25, 2014.

Click on the picture to enlarge and you can see that all four division champs in each conference are once again the favorites to win the their respective divisions with the exception of the NFC South, where the New Orleans Saints are now the favorite after opening co-favorite with the Carolina Panthers.

But with history as our guide, there is likely to be 5-6 new playoff teams this season with half the teams listed above falling short this year.  You can bet on it.

 

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