Using Stability Ratings To Find Value In Early Season College Football Games

The college football 2025 season kicks off over the upcoming Labor Day weekend with some key Top 25 matchups including three top 10 showdowns headlined by No. 1 Texas from the SEC at No. 3 Ohio State, the defending national champions from the Big Ten. The Buckeyes have some major turnover in personnel and replaced their offensive and defensive coordinators with a new quarterback facing a fierce Longhorns defense. Stability in programs is far less with the transfer portal allowing players to switch programs like free agents, and be paid through Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) deals.

So I’ve included a handicapping strategy from Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) research team and modify it with my own stats and interpretation to assist you in islolating early season matchups offering value and betting opportunities in Weeks 1-4. I’ve outlined the stability ratings and more information you can bet on in my article at Off Shore Gaming Assocation, and added more below.

Stability Ratings

Stability ratings provide a plan to guide you with another handicapping tool in your search for value, winners and pursuit of profit.

Researching the teams, following the beat writers and reporting are part of the process beyond handicapping the games, stats and strategies in preparation for the season and weekly college football contests. That includes a handicapping system designed by a Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) researcher and editor that has provided another tool in finding value and matchup edges with stability ratings.

As outlined through VSiN, these stability ratings provide a total stability score for teams based on five different stabilizing factors:

– Head Coach
– Offensive Coordinator
– Defensive Coordinator
– Quarterback
– Overall Returning Starters

With so many transfer quarterbacks, including starters who left programs for other ‘opportunities’ (NIL $), the handicapping approach has changed along with the game and player movement. In 2021, more than half of the FBS teams (now 136) had at least 17 returning starters. That number was 69 teams, and over the past four seasons, an average of just 14 teams have had at least 17 returning starters including just 7 teams this season. There are also 30 new head coaches along with 112 coordinator changes this season, so stability is lacking as teams build chemistry, cohesion and stability within the program.

Right here in Las Vegas after two exceptional years rebuilding UNLV, the progam has an entire new coaching staff with Barry Odom leaving for Purdue in the Big Ten. Former Mississippi State and Florida head coach Dan Mullen takes over UNLV. The Rebels escaped with a win last Saturday 38-31 over Idaho State, but never sniffed the spread in failing to cover as a 30′-point favorite.

The stability score pointed that game out with UNLV’s changes, along with Kansas as a 31-7 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) winner with the Jayhawks experienced staff, quarterback and players against rebuilding Fresno State and their new coaching staff and less than 10 returning starters and new quarterback.

Stability Teams To Watch And Fade

Teams to watch from power programs who score highest in stability scores include Arizona State and Baylor in the Big 12, Clemson in the ACC and Illinois in the Big Ten. Also, Penn State, Texas and LSU are among other top teams with higher stability ratings behind the top-tier above.

Teams who are likely to struggle with instability in the early season as they try to gain traction from changes include Appalachian State and Marshall (Sun Belt), Bowling Green and Massachusetts (MAC), Florida Atlantic, Charlotte and Rice (American), Jacksonville State (Conference USA), New Mexico and UNLV (Mountain West).

Of course, there are exceptions to these guidelines and utilization in the opening four weeks of the season as last season Oklahoma State and Stanford were among the most ‘stable’ teams in these ratings but had terrible, underperforming seasons. But Texas and Ole Miss topped the list of stable teams and both won 10+ games with the Longhorns making the SEC Championship game and College Football Playoff.

You must adjust while understanding odds, movement, power ratings, stats, situational handicapping and strength of schedule along with injuries and rules changes and officiating that can impact your bets. Dig into box scores and stay stable in your own approach and avoid problem gambling as you research information you can bet on and watch and wager on the games.

The college football season kicked off with a handful of games last Saturday including the Top 25 matchup with No. 22 Iowa State a 24-21 winner over No. 17 Kansas State in a Big 12 contest in Ireland. Now it’s time to watch and wager on college football in the U.S. on not only the biggest games and Top 25 teams, but the smaller conference teams who also work year round to improve their game, standing and stability in the college football landscape.

Check back as we update strategies, stability and ratings with picks and opinions including Top 25 picks and matchups drawing the most watch and wager action.

You can bet on it.