NFL Week 13 Betting and Handicapping ATS Situations

Playoff Push and Situational Betting Starts in December and NFL Week 13

Many sports bettors buried their bookies in Week 12, some wagering illegally and hopefully getting paid. The upcoming Supreme Court betting case ‘Christie vs. NCAA’ is going to have a major impact on the sports betting industry, with potential legalization opening up many more opportunities for sports fans and bettors, and revenue sources for the sports, racing and casino industries. The betting favorites went 9-3 ATS in Sunday’s Week 12 games, and many of those bettors are clamoring for more in Week 13.

To open the week, the Redskins went from a slight underdog to a 2-point road favorite at Dallas. That means lots of money came in on the Redskins, and much of it was from the betting public that won big last week. Final: Cowboys 38, Redskins 14. Dallas got physical and took offense against their big division rival, rushing the ball 42 times for 182 yards. Despite less than 300 yards total offense, the Cowboys (6-6) snapped their 3-game losing streak (and 0-3 ATS slide with all losses by 20+ points) and kept their very slight playoff hopes alive, while sending the Redskins (5-7) back home to D.C. to join our unruly president.

If you read my articles and followed Fairway’s Forecast in weeks 1-6, you were rewarded with plenty of profit playing the underdogs, going 16-8 ATS. Following a stay on the disabled list, which proved timely with so many favorites covering through the month of November, it’s time to reconsider the underdogs, contrary bets and those supported by betting situations and angles that may provide you some direction in your late-season NFL wagering.

Fundamental handicapping and match-up analysis are my primary focus, but situational analysis combined with some technical (patterns) parameters are part of the process and consideration when waging on both pro and college football. Teams, coaches, systems and players change, and that’s why trends, and especially team trends, can be more meaningless and systems and angles need to be relevant and make sense. There are significant differences in handicapping and wagering on those two sports, but in the NFL, you must be willing to get off your opinions on teams weekly, and evaluate the match-ups, situations and proven historical ATS situations while having an awareness of injuries and impact, situations and scheduling, motivation and weather at this time of year. While many teams are pushing for the playoffs, others are making plans for the offseason. The betting line is the ultimate equalizer, and plenty of playoff contending teams will be ‘taxed’ in the betting market at this time of year.

Here are some week 13 match-ups with analysis, and ATS situations and angles to consider:

Philadelphia at Seattle (+6)
Look no further than the top team this year, the Philadelphia Eagles (10-1), who are 9-2 ATS this season and laying up to 6-points at some sports books in their road game this week at Seattle (7-4), a team that has suffered many injuries but remains in the thick of the playoff race. The Seahawks are a home underdog for just the second time in their last 42 home games. The most recent home ‘Dog role was against the Falcons, who beat the Seahawks two weeks ago on Monday night 34-31 with the closing line favoring the Falcons (-1) after the Seahawks opened a 3-point favorite. That game and result could prove pivotal in the final playoff picture, as Atlanta (7-4) now holds a tiebreaker over the Seahawks should they end the season with the same record as wild card teams. The Seahawks have been within one score or held a lead in 113 of their past 115 fourth quarters. This is one of the biggest bet games of the week and another huge result for the sportsbooks – who need the home ‘Dog Seahawks.

Denver at Miami (+1.5) – Who wants to bet on these two bottom-feeders and bankroll busters? Denver (3-8 SU/2-9 ATS) is on a 0-7 SU/ATS super slide with their poor coaching and lack of leadership finding excuses and a scapegoat by firing the more competent and capable offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. Incredibly, the Broncos are taking the most money after Miami (4-7 SU) opened a 1-point favorite. Good luck figuring out these two teams and tendencies. The Dolphins have covered just 3-games this season and are on a current 0-5 SU/0-4-1 ATS slide. Miami has the worst stats profile in the league with a negative (-1) yards per play differential (offense 4.7, defense 5.7), and the Dolphins have allowed 6.4 yards-per-play over their last three games; only Tampa Bay is worse. Over the Dolphins last six contests in which they have failed to cover a point spread, Miami has allowed 34 points per game and at least 27 points in each contest. A good spot for QB Trevor Siemian to reassert himself as the team’s QB and leader after losing his starting job. Denver now plays 5-straight games against losing teams in December. But we’ve already cashed in our biggest season win total playing against the Broncos (under 8.5). Before you make your bet on the Broncos, see the Redskins/Cowboys contrary result and know this:

Fairway Fact: NFL non-division home ‘Dogs (or pick) are 96-68 ATS (58.5%) since 1980 if they enter on a 0-3 SU/ATS slide in their last three games. If their opponent has a sub-.500 record, the home ‘Dog is 29-11 ATS (72.5%). There is some hope and historical support for the Dolphins to snap out of their skid this week. One of these losers will break their long losing streak.

Minnesota at Atlanta (-3). The Vikings have taken money and the line has dipped to -2.5 at some leading sportsbooks. A battle of key NFC contenders as the Vikings (9-2) try to hold onto a top-2 playoff seed through December so they can secure a first round bye in the playoffs. The Falcons (7-4) are one game behind both New Orleans and Carolina in the tough NFC South, and the Vikings travel to Carolina next week.

Fairway Fact: Teams with a .750+ win percentages (Vikings) that are underdogs in December or January are 20-34 ATS (-25.8% ROI) the past 15 seasons. But under head coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikings are 7-1 SU/ATS vs. the NFC South including 3-0 ATS on the road in December.

LA Rams at Arizona (+7). What a story the Rams (8-3) have become. A 4-win team last year now in 1^st place and pushing for a NFC West division title with a top-4 offense. A solid money-maker that only proven defenses have been able to slow (MN and SEA). The ‘sharps’ are going to side with the contrary Cardinals (5-6) and the situation with the Rams off a big playoff-impacting win vs. the Saints and the Rams returning home to play the Eagles next week. As mentioned, Teams, coaches, systems and players change, and that’s why trends, and especially team trends, can be more meaningless and systems and angles need to be relevant and make sense. The Rams have not been a road favorite of 7 or more points since 2003. Public bettors won’t care, or that the Rams are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as division road favorite. They saw the Rams crush the Cardinals 33-0 in week 7 on the Sunday night spotlight. Fairway Fact: Arizona coach Bruce Arians is 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS at home against an opponent coming off a SU/ATS win. Buyer beware, even if you’re willing to pay the Rams tax and ride the hot and ‘good’ team against a ‘bad’ team.

Kansas City at NY Jets (+3). How quickly things change in the NFL. Following a 5-0 SU/ATS start when bettors couldn’t line up fast enough to get their money down on the Chiefs after a week 1 win at New England, the Chiefs are now 6-5 and just one game in front of the surging Chargers (5-6), who started the season 0-4. Perceptions change, but unfortunately many bettors patterns do not. Will Kansas City become the 3^rd team in the last three seasons to start 5-0 and fail to make the playoffs (Falcons and Vikings)? The Chiefs are on a 1-5 SU/ATS slide with their only win at home against disastrous Denver. Now it’s the Jets (4-7) who are taking money from the 5-point opener, and yes those same Jets who many predicted might not win a game this season. Surely nobody was betting on the Jets consistently this season, yet New York was 6-2-1 ATS until their recent 0-2 SU/ATS slide. The Chiefs current form and struggles are not good, but I trust one coach and team’s preparation in December much more than the other, so this is a home ‘Dog I’m not supporting and will pass and watch with interest or in-game opportunities. Fairway Fact: Teams that lost their previous game as a favorite of 10 or more points (Chiefs) have gone 35-23 (60%) ATS in their next game.

*ATS info is taken from various sources, don’t include pushes, and results can vary based on line moves and how records are recorded (opening, closing line, favorite or ‘Dog, etc.)

Article posted at osga.com.