Fairway’s Forecast Week 12: 49ers vs Seahawks

Rested 49ers off a Bye and Host Struggling Division Rival Seahawks

Another division winner from last year is struggling, as Seattle (6-4) joins Dallas and Green Bay as teams on the outside looking in at the playoffs as the season hits the home stretch. The Seahawks are the struggling with injuries and play three division leaders starting in December following their game at San Francisco this Sunday. But unlike the Cleveland Browns and their turkeys, the San Francisco 49ers have been competitive this season despite just 1 win. That includes in a 12-9 loss at Seattle as a big double-digit ‘Dog in week 2. The 49ers (1-9) picked up their first win of the season prior to last week’s bye when they beat the NY Giants 31-21. But read the reports surrounding the 49ers each week and you get a completely different vibe than those bashing the Browns. And for good reason, as head coach Kyle Shanahan, GM John Lynch and the San Francisco 49ers organization have a much better idea on designing a plan and implementing it. Unlike the clueless coach in Cleveland who says “I’m not interested in a plan.”

The current NFL football betting odds in Las Vegas

Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (-115)
San Francisco 49ers +6.5 (-105)

Total: 45.5

Back in week 2, we played and recommended the 49ers taking +14 at the leading offshore sportsbooks in their game at Seattle. Despite a complete change of personnel, new coaches, systems and struggles especially on offense, the 49ers hung tough despite only 23 minutes of ball possession and just missed getting the victory in a 12-9 defeat. Quarterback Brian Hoyer played, and he’s since been released and picked up by his former team New England. The 49ers traded for Patriots QB Jimmy Garappolo, but he’ll still be on the sideline as he’s learning the complex playbook and schemes of coach Shanahan. Rookie QB C. J. Beathard starts his 5^th straight game. Beathard has not played too well, be he’s at least competent and can make plays and minimize mistakes, unlike the rookie QB in Cleveland. Beathard played his best game against the Giants passing for 288 yards and 2 TDs on 19/25 passing with a QB rating of 123.4 as the 49ers balanced the attack with a season high 474 yards offense. He also rushed for a touchdown in the 49ers first victory of the season. The 49ers don’t run the ball enough for my liking (ave. 23 attempts/game for 101 ypg), but are top 7 in yards per rush (4.4) and even better in the last three games. With an unproven rookie QB having to pass more, there is more risk, but coach Shanahan has given Beathard some reigns and the offense as a group played its best last game.

Now playing better, off a bye and getting the struggling Seahawks at home with Seattle off a big Monday night home defeat to Atlanta, this looks like a very solid spot to support the San Francisco 49ers. Well aware that free safety Adrian Colbert (thumb) is likely out for San Francisco and the secondary is depleted, which also makes over the total a little more appealing. There is another concern for the 49ers and San Fran bettors as their best offensive linemen (RT) Trent Brown is now a game time decision with a shoulder injury sustained in practice. But the Seahawks defense is a shell of itself, as the secondary has been ravaged with injuries and this week no less than five linemen LB’s are questionable. The Legion of Boom is busted up, as Pro Bowlers strong safety Kam Chancellor and cornerback Richard Sherman are both out and the pass rush has been missing in action as DE Cliff Avril remains out. Safety Earl Thomas (hamstring) returned last week after missing two games, but he’s not full health. Cornerback Shaquill Griffin is out (concussion protocall). Penalties have been a major problem too, as Seattle leads the league in penalties per game (10) and penalty yards (88). The Seahawks are much more vulnerable against the pass, yet SF should also have some success running the ball as RB Carlos Hyde had a season-high 124 yards rushing in the week 2 match-up.

Seattle’s running game, without QB Wilson’s contribution, has been stuck in the sand, and recent results also suggest a stronger aerial attack is in order. However, the Seahawks offensive line is banged up and the 49ers will bring more pressure and players along the line, but Wilson does have a strong QB rating of 115 when facing the blitz and even better in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line.

When we last left posting our four weekly NFL underdog picks and plays, we were 16-8 ATS through six weeks before I was forced to go on the DL and take a break. If I were posting four plays, the 49ers as ‘Dog would certainly be part of ‘Fairways Foursome’ and pick pack. However, all these injuries on both teams make it more risky when wagering and the uncertainty that follows.

Key Stats and ATS Situations

In three divisional games this season, the Seahawks offense has averaged less than 4.1 yards per play.

• 12 points, 312 yards and 3.9 YPPL vs SF 49ers
• 16 points, 241 yards and 3.7 YPPL at LA Rams
• 22 points, 287 yards, 4.8 YPPL at AZ Cardinals

The 49ers defense is allowing an NFC-worst 133 rushing yards per game with no improvement in three recent games.

Teams with a win percentage of less than .400 are 30-6 ATS as home underdogs of more than 5 points following their bye week if their opponent is not also off a bye.

Fairway’s Forecast:

Seattle has won 8 consecutive games against San Francisco. They need this win badly to stay in the tough NFC playoff chase as three division leaders await Seattle the next three weeks. But teams often bleed when in need, and the Seahawks are injured and vulnerable. It showed in last week’s Monday night loss to Atlanta, even in victory over Arizona the week before when they were out first downed 23-12, lost at home to the Redskins with more mistakes, turnovers and 16 penalties, and escaped vs. Houston 41-38 when they allowed 500 yards to another rookie quarterback.  Injury impacts are noteworthy in this division contest, as is the situational scheduling spot favoring the 49ers. Take San Francisco +6.5 or 7 and don’t be surprised if the Seahawks struggles continue with another loss.

Article posted at osga.com.