NFL Week 11 Steelers-Browns Betting Preview And Grudge Match

I’ve added more coverage to my NFL Week 11 picks, including a game preview in Forbes for the Steelers-Browns AFC North matchup and grudge match on Sunday, Nov. 19. The low over/under game total of 33 points is 32.5 at selection sportsbooks including FanDuel. That’s tied for the lowest NFL game total in the past 10 years.

Check out my NFL coverage in Forbes for NFL Week 11 along with some added information you can bet on for the Steelers-Browns game. Game previews from team beat reporters and advance stats from Dr. Bob Sports.

The betting line has moved around since Browns QB Deshaun Watson was injured vs. the Ravens in Week 10 and now out for the year with a fractured shoulder. The Browns went from a -3.5 point favorite, to +1 and pick ’em, then -1, -1.5 and over the weekend up to -2.5. The game total has falled sharply to 33, and 32.5 at FanDuel and select leading online sportsbooks.

I bet and picked the Browns (-1) and here is an added best bet on ‘under’ the game total by Dr. Bob which he provided for my coverage in Forbes.

  • The Browns will start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is averaging just 2.0 yards per pass play on 41 pass plays filling in for Watson earlier this season.
  • Thompson-Robinson should be better than that in his second start with more time working with the 1st team in practice. But Cleveland’s offensive line could be without its top 3 tackles and Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller.
  • Check the Week 11 injury reports.
  • The Steelers will likely call for a lot of screen passes, but Cleveland’s defense is 3rd in the league defending running backs in the pass game, based on success rates.
  • Running the ball probably won’t work either, as the Browns defense ranks 4th in rush success rate allowed.
  • The model predicts a total of just 29.9 points and the Steelers tend to play lower scoring games than expected on the road, as head coach Mike Tomlin tends to be even more conservative away from home.
  • The Steelers are 47-15-2 Under in road games when the total is 49 points or less since early 2015, including 3-0 Under this season.

Read more Steelers-Browns game preview in my coverage in Forbes with matchup info, advanced stats and information you can bet on. Also, a NFL midseason betting report I provided in Forbes.

 

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay
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