NFL 2023 Week 4 Underdog Picks And Preview

FairwayJay’s 6 year record posting NFL Underdog Picks is 58%, and previous 8-straight winning seasons greater than 57% on nearly 650 plays

I’ve posted my updated NFL 2023 Week 4 underdog picks at Off Shore Gaming Association, where I provide picks by Friday each week along with other underdogs in considertion mid-week. Full analysis of the games of interest also provided, and I chip-in more NFL Week 4 coverage in Forbes with key games including Miami at Buffal and additional information you can bet on.

NFL Handicapping Success, Strategies and Sports Betting Stories

The line moves are always worth monitoring, and trying to get ahead of, but we don’t control market moves. You can get an early look at the Week 4 lookahead lines and compare them to the current lines. Note the adjustment from Baltimore -2.5 on the lookahead line to Cleveland -2 current line.

Week 4 Odds, Lines & Matchups

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We enter Week 4 at 5-5 ATS with 4 outright winners to start the season, and the 6-year record posting underdog picks is now 167-122 ATS (57.8%) with 96 outright underdog winners. That includes a 70% season in 2021 going 28-12 ATS with 21 outright winners.

Also check out other NFL 2023 Week 4 underdog picks, opinions and considerations in my coverage at OSGA, along with any additions here over the weekend.

Miami (+3) at Buffalo – Dolphins Moneyline +135
Houston (+3) vs Pittsburgh – Texans Moneyline +125
New York (+9) vs Kansas City – Jets Moneyline +330

Miami at Buffalo – You can read more of my MIA/BUF game analysis in Forbes, along with a total recommendation supporting less scoring than projected with the total down from 54 to 53.5. The Dolphins offense has been the most potent through 3 weeks with MVP favorite QB Tua Tagovailoa leading the offense averaging a league-best 8.4 yards per play and unsustainable 43 points per game. I like the run game setup as well with Dolphins rookie RB De’Von Achane off an AFC Offensive Player of the Week performance with 4 total TD’s and 203 rushing yards. The Dolphins defense is legit with top DC Vic Fangio able to scheme to the opponent and limit explosive plays. The Bills are tough and QB Josh Allen and the offense will also turn towards more running, misdirection and short passing as they face more Dolphins defensive pressure. This matchup was a shootout in last seasons playoffs won the by Bills 34-31. But Tua didn’t play in that game, and he’s a difference maker with his lethal WR’s Hill and now Waddle returning this week.

Pittsburgh at Houston – This is a bad spot for the Steelers, who are one of six teams that have been out-yarded in each game this season (PIT, IND, CHI, TEN, NYJ). Pittsburgh’s defense has bailed them out creating 3 TO’s last week at Las Vegas in a Sunday Night Football victory, and 4 TO’s in a phony Monday Night Football win the previous week over division rival Cleveland, when the Steelers had just nine first downs, 55 rushing yards and 255 total yards (CLE 405). Houston is getting the best rookie QB play from CJ Stroud, who has passed for more than 900 yards with 4 TD passes and ZERO interceptions. He’s completing 77% of his passes and been very solid vs man coverage while facing the third-highest pressure rate with a unsettled offensive line. Playbook notes that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 12-21-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite coming off a win, including 1-11 ATS during the first six games of the season.

Kansas City at New York Jets – I’m adding the Jets despite the line dip to +9 and even +8.5 in spots. My yardage projections and yardage are closer in this contest, less than 80 yards difference with the Jets stronger defense and a lower total (41.5). These plays and bets are more difficult to make for most bettors and recreational players, who get caught up in the recent results and hype like that surrounding KC TE Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift. But we’ve cashed-in more often than not over 6 years of 58% ATS underdog winners including during our 70% season in 2021. Some of the ugliest ‘Dogs that year in the Lions, Texans and Jaguars (+14) won outright when the quarterback play was questioned as it is here with the Jets and Zach Wilson. And what about the Cardinals (+12.5) huge upset of the Cowboys last week? The Chiefs blowout of the Bears last week and the Jets 15-10 home loss to the Patriots with just 171 yards offense (2.8 YPPL) makes it look easy for the Chiefs this week. But that’s not how the NFL works most the time, and especially when wagering. We could get embarrassed again like last week’s blowout losses by the Broncos and Commanders, but we’ll stick with it and count on better play and the Jets running game to get untracked with an under the total bet also in order along with a first half bet on the Jets (+6.5). Contrary call knowing too that the Chiefs are the most bet team with the most spread money bet at greater than 90% at one leading online sportsbook (BetMGM). For what it’s worth, the Chiefs are 0-7 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, which also shows how recency bias plays a part. The Chiefs went 8-2 SU but just 1-8-1 ATS during a stretch last season starting about this time with six of those as 8-point favorite or greater. We’ll take the ‘On any given Sunday’ approach.

Also, in advance of next week’s NFL games, be sure to check out the Week 5 lookahead lines.