FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Week 15

FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Week 15 & Game Analysis of San Diego at Denver

Line: Broncos -10.5 l Total:  56

The San Diego Chargers ( 6-7 SU / 7-5-1 ATS ) travel to Sports Authority Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos ( 11-2 SU/ 9-4 ATS ) for a rematch of their division game a moth ago.  Looks like mid-30’s temperatures at game time with clear skies light winds.  Plenty of ‘air balls’ expected to sail at Mile High and FairwayJay’s Free NFL selection week 15 projects plenty of passing yards and scoring.

Both QB Manning and Rivers have quick releases and deliver the ball accurately.  They are completing 68% and 70% of their passes respectively and rank #1-2 in the AFC with 4,522 and 3,882 passing yards (347/game and 298/game).   Equally impressive is that each QB passes for a strong 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Peyton Manning is likely to shatter numerous single season passing records as he’s also passed for 45 TDs with 9 INTs while Rivers has 26 TDs and 9 INTs.  Bringing pressure or blitzes is not too effective against these shot-gun signal callers, as they release quickly and have great command of their offenses, personnel and routes. They will pick apart zone defense, so while you’ll see less of that, a mix of coverage could be shown to prevent deep over the top passes.  More man-to-man is likely, which is bad for both teams as these pass defenses are suspect with the Broncos and Chargers both ranking bottom-5 in the league allowing near 270 passing YPG.  Against precision and top-tier QBs, we can project plenty of passing success again in this marquee division match-up Thursday.

The best deep defender is cover corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie of the Broncos.  He’ll likely cover rookie standout receiver Keenan Allen, who had 2 TDs last week in victory and is closing in on 1,000 yards receiving.  Veteran CB Champ Bailey was inactive last week (foot) and has not been cleared to play yet vs. the Chargers.  Defensive end Derek Wolf (ill) has four sacks this season but will miss the Chargers game.   Opponents pass the ball 40 times per game on the Bronco’s, so expect Chargers QB Rivers to pass plenty Thursday at Mile High.  For San Diego, former Broncos receiver Eddie Royal, now the Chargers second-leading WR with 500 yards, is questionable (toe). He leads the Chargers with 7 TD receptions, but QB Rivers has top targets Allen, TE Antonio Gates ( 68/776 ), RB Danny Wodhead ( 65 catches ) and WR Vincent Brown to distribute his passes.   We should also see more of big TE Ladarius Green in this match-up, as he’s give the Chargers a more flexible and multi-dimensional 2-TE offense in recent weeks and been targeted by QB Rivers at least five times each of the last three games.  San Diego should be scoring even more this season, but their red zone offense ranks #23 in the league in TD percentage, but that should improve against the Bronco’s suspect defense. San Diego ran the ball more in the first meeting this season with three RBs combining for 29 carries and each over 4.0 YPG led by Ryan Matthews ( 14/59 – 885 rush YTD ).  San Diego is #2 in the NFL in time of possession at nearly 33 minutes per game and will try to balance the offense again tonight.

The Broncos will be without WR West Welker and likely employ more 2-TE sets themselves with Jacob Tamme seeing more action while TE Julius Thomas leads the Broncos receivers with 11 TD receptions.  Both WR Damaryius Thomas and Eric Decker have surpassed over 1,000 receiving yards with over 70 receptions and 15 yards per catch.  There is no slowing down this Bronco’s offense with QB Peyton Manning in charge, and recall in the first meeting that Manning led first half TD drives of 73, 80 and 85 yards while passing 23 times in the first half.  Against a San Diego defense that sports a league-worst 6.6 yards per play against, Manning should post more big numbers with the Chargers needing turnovers and INT’s to slow the offensive onslaught.  Bettors take note however, that San Diego has been tied or led at halftime in 11 of their 13 games this season, and the Chargers have excelled and produced plenty of profit at Mile High going 6-0-3 ATS their last ten trips to Denver.

We could see some big kickoff returns tonight as the Broncos allow a league high 30 yards per kickoff return while the Chargers have allowed the most kickoff return yards.

I mentioned on my NFL Week 15 Podcast  that it’s difficult to play against the Broncos and especially at home where they average 42 PPG and have a record 4 players with 10 TDs this season.  But San Diego is still in the wild card picture and the Chargers offense, familiarity of the Broncos personnel and packages with coach Mike McCoy being the Broncos offensive coordinator last season and motivation to stay in the playoff hunt is enough to take the generous points being offered.  Totals bettors also note that the Chargers are 5-1 over the total their last six games as division road underdogs and the Broncos are 6-1 over/under their last seven home games against the Chargers.  In week 14 we witness a record scoring week in NFL history with 859 points scored, over 100 touchdowns and an average of over 53 PPG – more than 8 points higher than the average opening total.  The Broncos have gone 11-2 over/under this season despite record-high posted totals in many of their games.

Click on the link below for your opinion plays on Thursday Night’s Denver vs. San Diego match-up.

 

Already a member? Click here to log in.

FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Thursday Night Football