Analysis of Winning Wagers and Outright Underdog Winners

Saturday College Football Underdog Winners and Parlays for Profit

October 14 was another good one for FairwayJay, as he nailed 3 more college football barking ‘Dogs including two that won outright. Now 14-10 ATS on the year with these weekly underdog plays, including 10 outright underdog winners. FairwayJay is still shooting for his first 4-0 sweep after just missing again last week with his lone loss on a late TD to cover by 1 point. But a few more emails and comments for the effort and forecasts.

“Thanks for a big overall card again Saturday, Fairway.  7-2 on side plays and you nailed your Top Play total on Arizona/UCLA.  I bet a few small parlays including the Arizona and over and your analysis was spot on with the Wildcats rushing for 457 yards!  I took a shot on some other money lines that you hit with side winners too and just missed a big money line with Utah. Keep firing the winners, and I look forward to the weekly plays and love reading the analysis.” 

Here is the recap of the two outright underdog winners with analysis on Arizona and LSU that FairwayJay posts initially at Off Shore Gaming Association (osga.com).

178 Arizona (+2.5) vs UCLA – Wildcats Money Line +110

208 LSU (+7) vs Auburn – Tigers Money Line +220

UCLA at Arizona – If you read my college football article this week about the nation’s strongest and most balanced offenses, you’ll see that Arizona is one of the 12 teams in the country that we identify. The Wildcats average at least 200 yards both rushing and passing. But it’s the Wildcats rushing attack, averaging 274 YPG (vs FBS) that will run wild against a sieve UCLA defense that is among the very worst in the country allowing more than 500 YPG including 283 rushing yards per game at 6.3 yards per rush. Both teams enter 3-2 after Arizona’s momentum-building win at Boulder last week 45-42 over the Buffaloes in a game both teams racked up more than 550 yards offense. Wildcats QB Tate had one of the best individual performances you’ll ever witness, running 14 times for 327 yards and four TD’s and passing for another 154 yards and a TD while completing 12 of 13 passes. UCLA beat the Buffs a week earlier at home 27-23 in another even yardage game. Off the bye week, the Bruins are getting some betting support, and no doubt QB Rosen will have success through the air against a bottom-tier Wildcat’s pass defense. UCLA cornerback Holmes will sit out the first half of this game after being ejected for targeting against Colorado, but it’s the entire UCLA defense that will be targeted and trounced by Arizona this week. In a high-scoring night time shootout, it’s death in the desert for UCLA as coach Rich Rod and the Wildcats finally beat the Bruins and coach Mora for the first time in six tries.

Auburn at LSU – LSU came through for us last week at Florida, and now the Tigers return home to face a stronger Tiger in Auburn. Not easy for most to play against an Auburn (5-1) team clicking on all cylinders while winning each of their last three SEC games by at least 21 points. The Tigers stat profile now shows them out-scoring opponents 36-13 and out-gaining them 453-288 with their lone loss against the defending national champs and dominant defense of Clemson. Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson leads the nation with 12 rushing touchdowns, but he’ll face his next toughest test against LSU’s defense that has also registered 20 sacks. Auburn’s running game was slowed vs. Clemson in a game they also allowed 11 sacks, and now they may be shuffling the offensive line with left guard Horton suffering a severe ankle sprain vs. Ole Miss last week. We take the value with LSU, who was favored in this game leading into the season and is getting healthier and stronger for the second half stretch. LSU lost this match-up last year 18-13 in a bizarre ending and it resulted in longtime LSU coach Miles being fired following the game. Now Miles and the 2007 championship team are being honored at this year’s match-up. The Bayou Bengals have  beaten Auburn 8-straight times at home, and in a key showdown in which defenses figure to control the pace and play, we take the points where emotion again figures to be high for the home team.