College Football Week 7 Underdog Picks and Plays

College Football Betting Analysis and Insight with Parlays for Profit

Throughout the college football season, we’ll post a 4-team Money Line parlay for $20 and list the potential payout. These four teams will all be Underdogs to win outright. We’ll call it Fairway’s Football Forecast – as part of our $1,000 College Football Challenge. So join Fairway’s Foursome as we take a Shot with Big Bertha for a big Birdie score.

Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth examining, as many of these barking ‘Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright.

Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your betting portfolio when you bet on more competitively-priced underdogs, as the payoffs at the sports books can be very rewarding.

As is annually the case during this stretch of the season, the over-reaction to some team’s performances, both good and bad, often sets up line value. We had Texas A&M (+26) as a big ‘Dog vs. No. 1 Alabama last week in the Crimson Tide’s 27-19 win. Some sports books won’t allow money line plays on big ‘Dogs, and in fact many sports books in Las Vegas won’t post money lines on underdogs greater than 2 touchdowns. Sad. On these pages, we cashed with LSU (+2.5), which was our strongest play of the day, and the Tigers took tons of money game day to close -1.5 in their 17-16 win at Florida. Another example of line moves and potential impact if you bet a bad number or chase the steam.

As you evaluate many of the results in college football, be sure you’re digging into box scores, key plays and turnovers that change momentum or outcomes, and not get stuck on scores. The sports books will make you pay a premium to back some teams riding high, or provide extra value on the ‘bad’ teams knowing most bettors won’t be interested in taking a tag with these ‘losers’. Regardless of your choice, try to find hidden stats or information that may show subtle or significant gains which may point you towards improved play and performance of teams ahead. And be sure you understand the emotional component and a team’s interest, as clearly Oklahoma (-31) thought they had a layup against Iowa State last week while looking ahead to this week’s Red River Rivalry with Texas, but Iowa State pulled the shocking upset 38-31.

Lets’ continue this exercise and College Football Challenge as we seek out some value and isolate underdogs that can bite and deliver the Green.

Check out the current lines, odds and scores from Las Vegas sports books.

Last week we went 1-3 ATS with one outright winner on LSU. That was our first sub-par week on these pages using four underdogs. But Fairway’s Football Forecast expects much better, and we’ll shoot for more Birdies and Green and look to control more of our shots and selections ahead. For the season, we now stand 11-9 ATS with eight outright ‘Dog winners. Let’s see if we can continue to build more profit into week 7 as we fire for the Flag and go for the Green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway’s Football Forecast.

Here’s a recap of some underdogs of note that won outright last week. There were many including lots of barking double-digit ‘Dog winners. We’ll keep to FBS games and opponents only.

• LSU (+2.5) at Florida – Tigers won 17-16
• Central Michigan (+11) at Ohio – Chippewas won 26-23
• Bowling Green (+16.5) at Miami Ohio – Falcons won 37-29
• Michigan State (+12.5) at Michigan – Spartans won 14-10
• So. Miss (+10) at Texas San Antonio – Eagles won 31-29
• UL Lafayette (+6) at Idaho – ULL won 21-16
• So. Carolina (+3) vs Arkansas – Gamecocks won 48-22
• Arizona (+7) at Colorado – Wildcats won 45-42
• UAB (+9.5) vs Louisiana Tech – Blazers won 23-22
• Iowa State (+31) at Oklahoma – Cyclones won 38-31
• Nevada (+5) vs Hawaii – Wolf Pack won

This week’s underdog plays – Shop lines at the leading offshore sports books.

178 Arizona (+2.5) vs UCLA – Wildcats Money Line +110

196 Georgia Southern (+7) vs New Mexico State – Eagles Money Line +220

208 LSU (+7) vs Auburn – Tigers Money Line +220

210 Minnesota (+4.5) vs Michigan State – Gophers Money Line +160

$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $1,098

$20 4-Team Parlay = $220

UCLA at Arizona – If you read my college football article this week about the nation’s strongest and most balanced offenses, you’ll see that Arizona is one of the 12 teams in the country that we identify. The Wildcats average at least 200 yards both rushing and passing. But it’s the Wildcats rushing attack, averaging 274 YPG (vs FBS) that will run wild against a sieve UCLA defense that is among the very worst in the country allowing more than 500 YPG including 283 rushing yards per game at 6.3 yards per rush. Both teams enter 3-2 after Arizona’s momentum-building win at Boulder last week 45-42 over the Buffaloes in a game both teams racked up more than 550 yards offense. Wildcats QB Tate had one of the best individual performances you’ll ever witness, running 14 times for 327 yards and four TD’s and passing for another 154 yards and a TD while completing 12 of 13 passes. UCLA beat the Buffs a week earlier at home 27-23 in another even yardage game. Off the bye week, the Bruins are getting some betting support, and no doubt QB Rosen will have success through the air against a bottom-tier Wildcat’s pass defense. UCLA cornerback Holmes will sit out the first half of this game after being ejected for targeting against Colorado, but it’s the entire UCLA defense that will be targeted and trounced by Arizona this week. In a high-scoring night time shootout, it’s death in the desert for UCLA as coach Rich Rod and the Wildcats finally beat the Bruins and coach Mora for the first time in six tries.

New Mexico State at Georgia Southern – Think this game will get much betting action? Remember, they all pay the same even when wagering on a winless Georgia Southern team (0-4). But this is a bad spot for New Mexico State (2-4), who’s on the road with long travel for the third straight week. Situational handicapping combined with a significant adjustment in price of more than 2 touchdowns from the start of the season suggests we have a solid shot with the winless Eagles. Georgia Southern has been blown out by Auburn and Indiana, and lost their Sun Belt opener last week to Arkansas State 43-25 taking back 9 points at home as the money flowed against the Eagles. But Georgia Southern out-gained Ark State 493-381 with their triple option attack running 63 times for 333 yards. Redshirt freshman QB Werts is starting to show signs of improvement and the rushing numbers from last week suggest things are coming together more on offense despite some serious red zone issues. Last playing on Wednesday and a little extra prep, the Eagles will play with pride knowing they beat this Aggies team last year 22-19 as a 14-point favorite. Teams like New Mexico State with a dreadful defense are not worthy of laying this price on the road, and the Aggies have allowed at least 27 points in five of their six games and enter off a disheartening 45-31 loss last week in a game the Aggies QB threw 6 INT’s and melted down after leading in the the 4^th quarter against the Sun Belt’s best Appalachian State. New Mexico State allowed 350 rushing yards in defeat after getting run over by Arkansas the week before 51 times for 230 yards. The Aggies are worn down in a bad spot with a defense allowing nearly 200 rushing YPG at 4.9 YPR. I know the Eagles run defense is statistically worse, and the Aggies have a top RB duo in senior Rose and speedster Huntley. But Rose is questionable following a knee injury last week, and regardless, the situation screams Georgia Southern as the off the radar ‘Dog of the week.

Auburn at LSU – LSU came through for us last week at Florida, and now the Tigers return home to face a stronger Tiger in Auburn. Not easy for most to play against an Auburn (5-1) team clicking on all cylinders while winning each of their last three SEC games by at least 21 points. The Tigers stat profile now shows them out-scoring opponents 36-13 and out-gaining them 453-288 with their lone loss against the defending national champs and dominant defense of Clemson. Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson leads the nation with 12 rushing touchdowns, but he’ll face his next toughest test against LSU’s defense that has also registered 20 sacks. Auburn’s running game was slowed vs. Clemson in a game they also allowed 11 sacks, and now they may be shuffling the offensive line with left guard Horton suffering a severe ankle sprain vs. Ole Miss last week. We take the value with LSU, who was favored in this game leading into the season and is getting healthier and stronger for the second half stretch. LSU lost this match-up last year 18-13 in a bizarre ending and it resulted in longtime LSU coach Miles being fired following the game. Now Miles and the 2007 championship team are being honored at this year’s match-up. The Bayou Bengals have  beaten Auburn 8-straight times at home, and in a key showdown in which defenses figure to control the pace and play, we take the points where emotion again figures to be high for the home team.

Michigan State at Minnesota – Both these teams played in weather-impacted games last week, and the Spartans enter off a big road win over rival Michigan. The energy and emotion was left on the field in a defensive duel that saw MSU hold on for a 14-10 win in the rain with the Spartans getting out-gained 300-252. The week prior MSU beat Iowa 17-10 in another defensive duel in which they gained just 300 yards in the Big Ten opener. A prime time night game loss to Notre Dame the week prior has to have Sparty needing a breather. The Gophers went into a hole last week after leading the entire way into the 4^th quarter. An extended weather delay due to torrential rain created a frantic finish that saw Purdue take the lead with just over a minute to go and tack on a pick-6 to seal the victory 31-17. That was the Gophers (3-2) second straight Big Ten loss, and new coach P.J. Fleck knows his young team has missed a number of opportunities the last two games while failing to create more points off turnovers. The total in this game is 40, and both defenses have been stout. The Gophers special teams are stronger, and in a lower-scoring game with less offense those special teams units can have a big impact. In another game in which our home team would have been favored early season and even as recent as two weeks ago, we think the Gophers can be Golden in picking up their first Big Ten win for coach Fleck.

Best wishes in your pursuit of profit and may all your ‘Dogs deliver the Green.

Check out the leading online sportsbooks,  including those with reduced juice, and this article posted at osga.com.