Fairway’s Football Forecast Shoots for Profits and Parlays in the $1,000 Pro Football Challenge.
Each week during the NFL season, I post four (4) pro football underdog picks and plays. I came up with a fun idea and decided to post plays and provide NFL fans and bettors of all levels some selections and additional ways to bet these underdogs. Straight wagers, money line, and a money line parlay and straight parlay are part of our Pro Football Challenge.
We’ll use a $1,000 bankroll each week, and keep a running tab going throughout the season. The weekly links below will take you to our selections posted initially at the Offshore Gaming Association (osga.com), and can also be found on VegasSportsZone.com. Our goal is to provide winning selections and show a profit, knowing that it’s very difficult to hit a money-line underdog parlay, or even a straight 4-team parlay.
While straight wagers are a more prudent play, and we’ll document those results as well, I know from experience that bettors like a bigger score (like this one) with less risk. So I’ve included a pair of parlay for profit plays and a money-line wager on each of these underdogs. With fewer games each week in pro football, we’ll consider some very short favorites and include in our parlays and plays along the way.
Here’s how it works. We’ll use widely available lines and money-lines from both leading offshore sports books and Las Vegas sports books at time of post the end of each week.
FairwayJay’s $1,000 Pro Football Challenge – 4 Underdog Plays
A $200 wager on each team to cover the point spread ($800). A $40 wager on the money line for each underdog to win the game outright ($160).
A $20 wager on a 4-team Money Line Parlay ($20)
A $20 wager on a 4-team Parlay ($20)
Week 1: +$253 (3-1 week – 1 outright winner). 3-1 side plays +$380
Week 2: -$240…YTD +$13 (2-2 week – just missed 2 outright ‘Dogs including SF +14). 2-2 side plays -$40…YTD 5-3 = +$340
Week 3: -$34…YTD -$21 (2-2 week with 2 outright underdog winners). 2-2 side plays -$40…YTD 7-5 = +$300
Week 4: +$401…YTD +$380 (3-1 week with 2 outright underdog winners). 3-1 side plays +$380 YTD 10-6 =+$680
Week 5: +$476…YTD +$856 (3-1 week with 3 outright underdog winners). 3-1 side plays +$380 YTD 13-7 =+$1,060
Follow along each week as we shoot for more Winners and Green and Parlays for Profit.
NFL Week 5 betting review
Week 5 was a good one on our underdog plays, going 3-1 with three outright underdog winners and just missing the sweep again for the second straight week on the 49ers in yet another overtime loss. Now 13-7 YTD with some very close losses. We’ll keep Firing for the Green and try to avoid the Hazards in our weekly pursuit of profit.
| Matchup |
Open/Close |
Point-spread |
Highlights |
| Chargers at Giants |
Giants -4.5/-3 (45.5) |
Chargers, 27-22 |
Philip Rivers threw go-ahead TD pass to Melvin Gordon with 2:58 left. |
| Bills at Bengals |
Bengals -3.5/-3 (39) |
Bengals, 20-16 |
Randy Bullock’s 29-yard FG put Bengals ahead 20-16 with 3:33 left. |
| Jets at Browns |
Jets +2.5/-1.5 (41) |
Jets, 17-14 |
Josh McCown threw two TD passes and Browns missed two FGs and were stopped on fourth down at the 4. |
| Jaguars at Steelers |
Steelers -8.5/-7 (41.5) |
Jaguars, 30-9 |
Ben Roethlisberger threw career-high five interceptions, two returned for TDs. |
| Titans at Dolphins |
Dolphins +2.5/-1 (41.5) |
Dolphins, 16-10 |
Jay Cutler salvaged poor performance with tiebreaking 6-yard TD pass to Jarvis Landry in fourth quarter. |
| 49ers at Colts |
Colts -2.5/-1 (43.5) |
Colts 26-23 (OT) |
Adam Vinatieri kicked 51-yard field goal in OT to bail out Colts, who blew 14-point lead. |
| Cardinals at Eagles |
Eagles -6.5/-6.5 (44.5) |
Eagles, 34-7 |
Carson Wentz threw career-high four TD passes. |
| Panthers at Lions |
Lions -3/-2 (42) |
Panthers, 27-24 |
Cam Newton threw three TD passes and Carolina scored 24 straight points after trailing 10-3. |
| Seahawks at Rams |
Pick/Rams -2 (46.5) |
Seahawks, 16-10 |
Seattle forced five turnovers and scored 16 straight points after trailing 10-0. |
| Ravens at Raiders |
Raiders -2.5/-3 (40.5) |
Ravens, 30-17 |
Joe Flacco hit Mike Wallace on two deep passes and Ravens got fumble return for TD. |
| Packers at Cowboys |
Cowboys -2.5/-2.5 (52.5) |
Packers, 35-31 |
Aaron Rodgers threw 12-yard TD pass to Davante Adams with 11 seconds left to cap 75-yard, 62-second drive. |
| Chiefs at Texans |
Chiefs -1.5/-2 (45) |
Chiefs, 42-34 |
The Chiefs led 23-7 at halftime and never trailed. |
Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay
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