Inside the Numbers Week 14 NFL Betting

Handicapping and analyzing Week 14 stats

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Each week you can listen to my NFL Podcast recorded Friday’s where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday games.

Here are some Week 14 stats of note.

Week 14 NFL favorites went 10-6 straight-up (SU) and 9-7 against the spread (ATS), and for the season betting favorites are now 96-107-4 ATS (47.3%). We had another great week going 4-0-1 on Sunday with our two top play Big Drive winners on the Carolina Panthers and NY Giants.  We look to continue our strong December by evaluating the match-ups, situations and stats, and proficiently applying them for success.

Just one big turnover game last week as the Arizona Cardinals suffered 8 turnovers and were destroyed by the Seahawks 58-0. Seattle had the second-highest rushing total of the season with 284 yards while the Cardinals dismal league-worst offense continued their struggles with just 10 first downs, 154 yards offense at 2.7 yards per play. Teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are 40-2 ATS this season. Last year they went 34-3 ATS. Teams that are exactly +2 in the turnover column are 35-8-1 ATS, so you can clearly see the impact of turnovers in a NFL game both SU and ATS.

Last season (2011) betting favorites went 120-127-9 (48.6%) and in 2010 betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook.  Scoring for Week 14 averaged 46.5 ppg and over/unders went 8-8.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent went 7-2 ATS in Week 14. Our rushing guidelines have now gone 107-35 (75%); right at the 10-year average. If you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to more cashing more tickets and point spread winners.  Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more. The Patriots used their spread offense and proficient pass attack to take out the Texans with ease; much like the Packers did this season. Houston has just two losses this season but the better QB’s have had much success against the Titans top-tier defense. I’m always more cautious utilizing rushing game parameters late season as situations, playoff scenarios and motivation become more meaningful or lacking for teams that have tossed the towel.  Still, the situation surrounding the Falcons mostly meaningless game played out perfectly along with the point of attack play as the Panthers rushed for 195 yards on 32 carries while the Falcons ran the ball a week-low 11 times for just 35 yards.

Week 14 big ground gainers in rushing included the Seahawks (284 yards/42 carries) and Panthers (195/32) along with the Vikings (171/38), Redskins (172/35) and NY Jets 166/42). Note that teams that run the ball for at least 30 times in victory are now 109-23 ATS this season.  Teams that run the ball 20 times or less often lose and are now 6-69 ATS this season. Remarkably, the Eagles rallied late and beat the Bucs 23-21 despite just 29 rushing yards on 16 carries. Other poor rushing attacks in losses included the Falcons (35 yards/11 rush attempts), Cardinals (43/16), Bills (61/20) and Steelers (69/17).

Week 14 proficient passing attacks in victory included the Patriots (289 net passing yards) and Broncos (288). Yet note that three of the highest net passing yards performances all lost SU/ATS – Falcons (362), Saints (345) and Bears (320).

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Seahawks (493 yards/7.6 yppl), Panthers (475/7.0), Redskins (420/6.4), Patriots (419/6.0) and NY Giants (394/6.4). Inefficient offensive teams included the Cardinals (again – 154/2.7) and Dolphins (227/4.0).

Teams that run the ball for at least 200 yards in a game are now 21-5-1 ATS (81%) this season. Teams that run the ball for at least 150 yards in victory are 66-15-1 ATS (81%) this season.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Be sure to listen to my NFL Podcast each week for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay