Betting Longshots At The Valero Texas Open

A lighter field at the Valero Texas Open, where I provided an early tournament preview at TheLines ahead of next week’s Masters. Just six of the top-40 players in the world rankings are playing at TPC San Antonio, including native Texan and Longhorns favorites Scottie Scheffler, who was runner-up in last week’s WGC Match Play in Austin. Fellow Texan Jordan Spieth is a betting favorite to win on the par 72 course that stretches to 7,435 yards with wind  usually a factor.

Valero Texas Open Odds

Valero Texas Open

J Spieth 12/1
S Scheffler 14/1
T Finau 14/1
H Matsuyama 18/1
A Ancer 20/1
C Conners 20/1
R Palmer 25/1
C Hoffman 30/1
S W Kim 30/1
C Tringale 35/1
B Steele 35/1
C Kirk 40/1
C Davis 40/1
Z Johnson 50/1
S Burns 50/1
M Kuchar 50/1

72 Hole Winning Score: 273.5

— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) March 29, 2021

COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION

• Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
• Location: San Antonio, TX
• Date: April 1 – 4 2021
• Par: 72 / Yardage 7,435
• Purse: $7.7 Million / Winner $1.4 M
• Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
• Greens: : Bermudagrass
• TV/Online: Golf Channel, NBC (Sat/Sun), PGA Tour Live
• Twitter & Hashtag: @valerotxopen
• Defending Champion: Corey Connors (2019)

The most bet golfers to win this week from sportsbook operator BetMGM:

Highest Bet Golfers to Win Tournament:

1. Jordan Spieth (+1000) 8.3%
2. Abraham Ancer (+2200) 5.2%
3. Ryan Palmer (+2800) 4.7%
4. Tony Finau (+1400) 4.1%
5. Scottie Scheffler (+1400) 4.0%

Highest Handle% to Win Tournament: 

1. Jordan Spieth (+1000) 14.4%
2. Abraham Ancer (+2200) 7.0%
3. Ryan Palmer (+2800) 6.0%
4. Tony Finau (+1400) 5.2%
5. Sam Burns (+5000) 3.6%
6. Scottie Scheffler (+1400) 3.5%

I’ve also added some Golfers to Watch at the Valero Texas Open. Those are players in the mid-range to big longshots, as we note that the last two winners of this event were huge longshots greater than +15000 in Corey Connors (2019) and Andrew Landry (2018). We chipped in a Golfer to Watch last week at the WGC Match Play who won his group at +350 odds and made it to the Final Four – Victor Perez (+15000).

You can read the stats and profiles of this week’s Golfers to Watch at TheLines, and I’ve added analysis on one of the four players below – Cameron Davis (+4100), Aaron Wise (+7500), Harry Higgs (+8000) and Matt Wallace (+11000).  

Matt Wallace was nearly half this price against a stronger field in the Honda Classic. He missed the cut at the Honda, but was T18 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Wallace has indicated he’s made strides in all areas of his game. It showed some last week when the 30-year-old went 1-1-1 in a solid group and played well in Austin at the WGC Match Play. His Ball Striking and Approach play strength should serve him well this week. On a tighter course where it’s tougher to hit fairways and greens this week, Wallace should perform well as he’s gained strokes T2G in his two recent U.S. Open appearances where hitting fairways is more difficult. Wallace’s Around the Green and Short Game have shown improvement over his last 36 rounds ranking top-20 in this field. The more regular European Tour player can find his groove better on this course before the Masters, where he’ll play next week after finishing T46 last year at Augusta. Wallace has finished third in the PGA Championship and 12th in the US Open both in 2019. At No. 60 in the world golf rankings, Wallace can fit well this week and outperform his odds for a top finish.

Fairway’s Favorites: All > than +3500 – Chris Kirk, Cameron Davis, Sam Burns and Lanto Griffin, who was a key match-up winner for us at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational in Feb.
Fairway’s Longshots: Aaron Wise (+7500), Harry Higgs (+8000), Denny McCarthy (+8000), Matt Wallace (+11000)

Tournament Match-ups: Chris Kirk (-132) over Branden Grace

Chris Kirk has two top-10 finishes in his last five events at the Valero Texas Open. More importantly, his game has really come along and he’s in solid form and will be focused to perform well. Kirk is top-10 in both SG: TOT and SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds, as well as Around the Green. His stats performances are much stronger than Grace, and Kirk has made 10 cuts in his last 11 starts with three top-25 finishes in his last four events. He’s also No. 1 in this field in Par 4 efficiency from 400-450 yards, and top-7 in bogey avoidance, which is a real issue for Grace. Kirk is a good fit this week at TPC San Antonio, and in this match-up with Grace, we’ve found a favorable match-up with a rising price.

Another tournament match-up winner before the weekend at the Honda Classic. Now 8-2 since posting from the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines,  and 11-3 since starting 2021 at the Sony Open.

A total of 23 golfers playing in the Valero Texas Open will head to Augusta next week to join the world’s best players at The Masters.