Thanksgiving Football Betting Guide

Read more details and analysis on each game and added insight in my article at Forbes.

Houston at Detroit

Both the Lions (4-6) and Texans (3-7) have been outgained in each of their last five games. Each team will have new head coaches next year. Call them turkey’s. The advance lookahead line on this game last week was Lions -1.5, and now Detroit is a 2.5 point underdog with the line leaning towards reaching 3.

Washington at Dallas

In Week 7, the Football Team crushed the Cowboys 25-3. Washington rushed the ball 39 times for 208 yards and out-gained Dallas 397 to 142. The Cowboys focus has been on the running game in their last three contests, rushing for 180, 144 and 133 yards with at least 30 rushing attempts each game. Dallas will try to snap out of a 1-8 ATS run on Thanksgiving Day, and the winner of this contest will move into first place in the NFC East with a 4-7 record. The lookahead line on this game was Cowboys -1.5 and now Dallas is laying 3 points with influence from the Cowboys upset win last week at Minnesota, 31-28. No NFL team has ever reached the playoffs with just six wins in a non-strike season. It may well happen in the unusual and unsettling COVID-19 season of 2020.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

A look at the playoff picture in the AFC and the Ravens are on the bubble and on the outside looking in. Baltimore (6-4) would miss the playoffs if they started this week. This Steelers vs Ravens match-up sets up as a desperate defensive duel between bitter division rivals. It may be a struggle for each team to eclipse 325 yards offense, and the Ravens are on a 9-1-2 agaisnt the spread (ATS) run as road underdog. In the 25 regular season games between these two teams when coached by Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, 14 have been decided by 3 points or less.

Watch the weather with rain in the forecast Wednesday and a chance for some rain Thursday night. Also, follow the COVID-19 list and injuries. The line moved up from Steelers -4 to -5.5 Tuesday with news that the Ravens are dealing with at least 10 positive COVID-19 tests.  Ravens head coach John Harbaugh confirmed that running backs J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram tested positive for the coronavirus, and would miss Thursday night’s game.

The Steelers are a league-best plus-12 in turnover margin this season, and Pittsburgh had a 4-1 turnover advantage in the Week 8 contest against the Ravens. The Steelers won 28-24 as a 4-point underdog. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles, and that was the issue as the Steelers heavy blitz schemes and pressure caused problems for Jackson and the offensive line. Baltimore still out-gained Pittsburgh 457 to 221, but the Ravens offense has gained just 306, 357 and 266 yards since losing to the Steelers.  Jackson also had three interceptions in last year’s game at Pittsburgh, but the Ravens won in overtime 26-23.

Best bet: Steelers and Ravens UNDER 45 points.