Turning for Home in the American League Wild Card Race
Twins Trying to Hang On in Bunched Up AL Wild Card Race and Push for the Pennant
At the start of September, the American League Wild Card race had seven teams within 3 games of the 2nd and final wild card spot. The Yankees were 3 games in front of the Twins for the top wild card, and seven others were in close pursuit of the Twins. The leading sports books were taking big betting action, and teams were pushing for the playoffs in baseball as football season kicked off.
The Indians were in the midst of a record-breaking run with 7-straight wins entering the September stretch. Then Cleveland clubbed every opponent in their base path, winning 15 more to start the month to make the record books with a 22-game winning streak. The Indians (93-57) have passed the Astros (91-58) for the best record in the American League, which would have seemed unthinkable a month ago. Now Cleveland is shooting for home field advantage throughout the American League playoffs with a shot to return to the back-to-back World Series as the AL champs.
But the push for the playoffs now has four teams battling for the two Wild Card entries and the 1-game play-in playoff game.
The Yankees have won 7-of-9 and still have a shot at the AL East title trailing hated rival Boston by 3 games. New York hosts Minnesota for 3 games to start this week, and then the Yankees finish their final 10 games against losing teams with 7 at home, where they are 43-28. The Yankees have the best division record in the AL East (39-28) and have six games vs. Toronto and three vs. Tampa Bay remaining.
The Twins (78-71) continue their push for the playoffs and are 2-games clear of the LA Angels for the final wild card spot. But Minnesota will have to put their strong road record to the test in the final two weeks. The Twins have the best road record (39-32) of the Wild Card chasing teams, and Minnesota is 7-7 over its last 14 games with 7 each home and away. But the Twins play their next 10 games on the road before 3 at home against the Tigers to close the regular season. The Twins have hung tough despite the absence of slugger Miguel Sano, who remains out with a shin injury since Aug. 20 and his 28 HR’s are sitting on the bench. After losing an AL-worst 103 games last year, the Twins are trying to be this year’s surprise playoff entrant despite the worst pitching staff ERA (4.66) of the remaining contenders.
The Angels (76-73) have been unable to make-up ground in the Wild Card chase, as LA has also gone 7-7 over its last 14 games. The Angels path to the playoffs will also be put to the test with their next six games vs. division-leading Cleveland at home and Houston on the road. Then to Chicago against the AL-worst White Sox before finishing at home against Seattle.
| Team | Record | Remainin Schedule |
| Yankees | 82-67 | Minnesota (3), at Toronto (3), KC (1) Tampa Bay (3), TOR (3) |
| Twins | 78-71 | at New York (3), at Detroit (4), at Cleveland (3), Detroit (3) |
| Angels | 76-73 | Cleveland (3), at Houston (3), at Chicago (4), Seattle (3) |
The Mariners (74-76) have fallen flat, losing 3-in-a-row at Houston and have won just 5 of their last 13. They sit 4.5 games behind the Twins for the final playoff spot, and need to win at least 5 of their next 6 games, all at home to have a shot.
Kansas City (73-76), Texas (73-76), Baltimore (73-77) and Tampa Bay (73-77) have all fluttered to the finish playing below .500 baseball in September when it counts. The Orioles especially were beaten birds losing 9 of their last 11 games to fall out of the Wild Card race.
So it’s the Twins or Angels likely to battle the Yankees in a 1-game playoff with the winner going to Cleveland or Houston for a best-of-5. The Yankees have other ideas with a division title still in the balance, and Boston is on the road for 6-straight this week against losing teams and finish with four games at home against Houston. New York will be favored at the sports books in all 13 of their remaining games, so a late stretch run by the surging Yankees is still a wild card possibility.
Fan Graphs still lists the Red Sox chances to win the AL East at 89%. The Yankees are 89% to secure a Wild Card, with the Twins (69%) and Angles (25%) battling it out to make the playoffs. The remaining teams with losing records have less than a 3% change to earn a Wild Card spot.
As you watch the American League teams push towards the playoffs, here is Fangraphs playoff probability as of today to win the American League Division Series, Championship Series and the World Series. The sports books are taking bets to win the Pennant and World Series, and the wild card teams are big long shots as expected.
| Team | ALDS | ALCS | World Series |
| Indians | 60.70% | 31.20% | 18.20% |
| Astros | 55.90% | 31.20% | 19.1% |
| Red Sox | 44.50% | 22.90% | 13% |
| Yankees | 26% | 11.30% | 5.80% |
| Twins | 7.90% | 2.00% | 0.70% |
| Angels | 4.20% | 1.10% | 0.40% |
