Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 7 Underdog Picks And Preview

Identifying NFL Week 7 Underdog Picks and Bets

We move forward with NFL Week 7 underdog picks. The struggles on our underdog picks hit bottom last week with a pair of blowout losers. It was worse on personal betting as I bet the Houston Texans (+3.5) but did not include in the underdog picks on these pages. For the second straight week, we had another team with at least a 94% chance of winning the game outright late in the game. The Texans blew it allowing a late touchdown (after failing 2-point conversion minutes earlier that would have iced the game), and then allowed a touchdown in overtime to miraculously lose and fail to cover the point spread.

The NFL scoring surge fell back to 47.3 points per game last week and over/unders went 4-10. The season-t0-date scoring is still at 50.78 points per game and bookmakers are posting at least six games per week with totals above 50 points including three big totals in Week 7.

Green Bay at Houston – 57
Detroit at Atlanta – 54.5
Seattle at Arizona – 55.5

You can review more Week 7 market moves and lookahead to the Week 8 advance lines in my NFL weekly odds report.

You can also review a year-to-date Inside the Numbers stats update I provided through Week 6 that also looks at specific rushing numbers and stats I track weekly to assist me in handicapping.

Here is some Week 7 betting data from William Hill Sportsbook showing percentages of bets on teams and which teams are taking the most money (handle).

https://twitter.com/WilliamHillUS/status/1319740791862947840

Of course, our underdog picks are going to be less popular, but with a 3-plus year record on these pages posting underdogs now 83-66 ATS (55.7%) despite a poor run thus far this season, you can decide how to proceed.

A strong history of NFL handicapping success and strategies is on my side if you decide to follow along and use the information and picks as you feel comfortable.

Note these pick and lines were posted at Offshore Gaming Association previoulsy as part of my weekly Underdog picks and Insights. Check that site and link for all the game analysis. Lines are alwasy subject to change but posted as available usually on Friday.

NFL Week 7 Underdog Picks

457 Detroit (+2.5) at Atlanta – Lions Moneyline +110
464 NY Jets (+13) vs Buffalo – Jets Moneyline +465
468 Arizona (+3.5) vs Seattle – Cardinals Moneyline +155
472 Denver (+10) vs Kansas City – Broncos Moneyline +360

Detroit at Atlanta

Expectations were higher for both the Lions (2-3) and Falcons (1-5), and each team enters Week 7 off a win last week. The Falcons won after firing head coach Dan Quinn. But the dirty birds defense is still so deficient, allowing 432 yards per game to rank No. 31 in the NFL and 6.7 yards per play,

which is dead last in the league. Toss out the rushing numbers although a pair of former Georgia stars are capable of running wild in the Falcons Todd Gurley and Lions D’Andre Swift. But the Falcons pass defense gets torched week after week and have allowed each opponent and quarterback to pass for at least 300 yards. Now it’s Matthew Stafford’s turn, and with a more balanced attack last week that included 180 rushing yards and career-best day from rookie RB D’Andre Swift, the Lions can win back-to-back road games with a defense that also played much better last week in dominating the Jaguars. Atlanta is 0-3 SU/ATS at home this season.

 

Seattle at Arizona

Really like the Cardinals (4-2) here despite unbeaten and so fortunate Seattle (5-0) in a better situational and scheduling spot off a bye with MVP quarterback Russell Wilson. But with the Seahawks very deficient defense allowing a league-worst 471 yards per game and poorly coordinated by Ken Norton, Jr., the Cardinals will definitely capitalize with their talented weapons and leading receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who we expect to play after missing practice the last two days with an ankle issue. Arizona is on a short week but should continue their strong offensive performance in this NFC West division duel that’s been moved to Sunday Night Football. The Cardinals are off a pair of road wins and racked up at least 438 yards offense against the Jets and Cowboys and balanced the attack last week with 261 rushing yards. Quarterback Kyler Murray’s added value in running and moving out of the pocket should cause more trouble with Arizona’s offense also operating out of the no-huddle a league-high 37% of the time. The Cardinals defense is also much improved and gets pressure on the quarterback while tied for No. 6 in the league in sacks. Death in the desert for Seattle as their incredibly good fortune and win streak comes to an end.

We’ll keep firing for more birdies and green on the gridiron.

You can bet on it.