College Football Week 3 Underdog Picks and Plays

College Football Betting Analysis and Insight with Parlays for Profit

Throughout the college football season, we’ll post a 4-team Money Line parlay for $20 and list the potential payout. These four teams will all be Underdogs to win outright. We’ll call it Fairway’s Football Forecast – so join Fairway’s Foursome as we take a Shot with Big Bertha for a big Birdie score.

Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth examining, as many of these barking ‘Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright.

Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your betting portfolio when you bet on more competitively-priced underdogs, as the payoffs can be very rewarding.

For the next four weeks, there will be some significant line adjustments based on results and adjusted power ratings. As is annually the case during this 4-week stretch, the over-reaction to some team’s performances, both good and bad, often sets up line value. Many bettors will have a tougher time supporting ‘bad’ or poor performing teams early in the season. Such is the case with big ugly ‘Dog Baylor this week, and even Boston College in their Catholic school rivalry with Notre Dame. But the proof will be in the pudding, and it’s up to us and you to have the Balls to play value and not fall for the bait that is often an inflated line against a poor performing team.

Check out the current lines, odds and scores from Las Vegas sports books.

That said, college football is often a momentum sport, so the trick is the find the treat for those teams that can bounce back from poor performances, and other ‘Dogs playing well but not getting enough credit in the marketplace or playing a team that is not as good as their current play has shown.  We do play favorites, and are willing to ride a hot hand. But for this exercise and College Football Challenge, we’re looking to isolate underdogs that can bite and deliver the Green.

In last week’s Fairway’s Football Forecast, we went 3-1 ATS on our college picks and plays, and those three underdogs all won outright including 10-point puppy Middle Tennessee State. Let’s see if we can perform that well again this week with even bigger underdogs on our card.

Join Fairway’s Foursome and follow along as we fire for the Flag and go for the Green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway’s Football Forecast.

Here’s a brief recap of some underdogs of note that won outright last week. We’ll keep to FBS games and opponents only.

Middle Tennessee State (+10) at Syracuse – Blue Raiders won 30-23

Oklahoma (+7.5) at Ohio State – Sooners won 31-16

Duke (+3) vs Northwestern – Blue Devils won 41-17

UTSA (+11’) at Baylor – Roadrunners won 17-10

Georgia (5.5) at Notre Dame – Bulldogs won 20-19

San Diego State (+3) at Arizona State – Aztecs won 30-20

Central Michigan (+3) at Kansas – Chippewas won 45-27

UNLV (+6) at Idaho – Rebels won 44-16

New Mexico State (+7.5) at New Mexico – Aggies won 30-28

Illinois (+4.5) vs Western Kentucky – Illini won 20-7

This week’s underdog plays – Shop lines at the leading offshore sports books.

111     Kentucky (+6.5/7) at South Carolina – Wildcats Money Line +215

155     Purdue (+7/7.5) at Missouri – Boilermakers Money Line +230

186     Wyoming (+14) vs Oregon – Cowboys Money Line +450

210     San Diego State (+9.5) vs Stanford – Aztecs Money Line +280

$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $4,325

$20 4-Team Parlay = $220

Kentucky at South Carolina. SEC opener for Kentucky, and both teams enter 2-0. The ‘Cocks have hardly been game while getting out-gained by both their opponents including 504-246 in their opening game phony win at NC State. Last week lowly Missouri outgained them but SC won again, and the Gamecocks have been better on special teams with 2 KO return TD’s while also taking advantage of turnovers. In the process, South Carolina has significantly out-performed the linesmaker’s expectations. Many have given the ‘Cocks a rise in their power ratings, but this is still an impotent offense that will try to rise up in their home opener. Kentucky has not performed too well in their opening two games while going 0-2 ATS, but they didn’t want to show their hand in victory last week yet still rushed and passed for more than 200 yards each in a balanced attack. That’s good enough for us, as is the hidden and strong special team’s advantage for Kentucky. We don’t anticipate the SC offense to put up too many points against the more experienced Wildcats that have 17 starters back from last year. Kentucky won last year’s meeting for their 3^rd straight over South Carolina, and this line would have been closer to 3 if played opening week. Kentucky knows they can beat this team, and we’ll take the value and count on the ‘Cats to fight and claw their way to their first money-making victory with a solid shot to win outright.

Purdue at Missouri – Here is an upwardly mobile Purdue team that finally got rid of a crappy coach, and the Boilers have quickly bought into new coach Brohm’s beliefs. Purdue is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS after battling tough against Louisville in their neutral field opener and them impressively dispatching Ohio, one of the MAC’s top teams 44-21 with a very strong, balanced offensive attack. We’ll ride the momentum of the Boilermakers improved offense against a bottom-tier SEC team that had turnover troubles in last week’s loss to South Carolina. Missouri head coach Odom fired his defensive coordinator following that defeat, only adding more troubling signs and potential chemistry issues early in the season.

Oregon at Wyoming – Solid spot for a big ‘Dog take against the Ducks in the high altitude of Laramie. We had Oregon as a bounce-back team this season, and a 2-0 start has them going good under new coach Taggart. Their power rating has been adjusted significantly, but this is a tricky spot for Oregon to show well, and especially with a still deficient defense. Off a redemption win over Nebraska last week in which they built a huge lead with a powerful balanced attack and then failed to cover double-digits in a 42-25 victory, Oregon must now travel for the first time this season with their Pac-12 opener on deck at Arizona State. Wyoming was better than the score in their opening week loss to Iowa, 24-3. But the Cowboys have a gun-slinger at QB who will be playing at the pro level, and their defense may be able to do enough against the Ducks speed and offensive attack. Lots of value in this line and room to maneuver, as Oregon was (-1) on preseason Game of the Year lines in Las Vegas. Know too that Wyoming beat a better Boise State team on this field last year catching the same number of points.

Stanford at San Diego State – Another outright ‘Dog we supported last week in victory but not on these pages was San Diego State, who went on the road and beat Arizona State 30-20 with 279 rushing yards at 6.5 yards per pop. Now the Aztecs take aim at home against a stronger Pac-12 entrant Stanford, who got buried at the point of attack last week. In what could be a defensive duel, we like the points and defensive guru Rocky Long. We don’t like Stanford coming off a beating by USC in which the Trojans both rushed and passed for over 300 yards in a 42-24 crushing of the Cardinal. Many probably like a Stanford bounce back, but San Diego State fits a very strong ATS situation as undefeated home ‘Dog off a SU/ATS win. Combined with Stanford’s loss and poor point-of-attack showing last week against Pac-12 power USC, we back the big home ‘Dog with some bite.

Best wishes in your pursuit of profit and may all your ‘Dogs deliver the ‘green’.

Check out the leading online sportsbooks,  including those with reduced juice, and this article posted at osga.com.