Round 2 Of 2020 NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights Still Stanley Cup Favorites

The bubble is shrinking with eight teams remaining. Dallas upset Colorado last night in Game 1 of their Western Conference showdown. as Round 2 started Saturday and eight teams remain in the 2020 NHL playoffs. The adjusted series price at DraftKings is now Colorado (-122) a small favorite against Dallas (+102) after the Avalance opened the series as a -225 favorite.

I chipped in with some 2020 NHL playoffs coverage at TheLines with insight and information you can bet on for the start of Round 2. I’ve added some of the coverage on the Golden Knights versus Vancouver below ahead of Game 1 Sunday night.

The Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning also open Round 2 of the Eastern Conference playoffs Sunday at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario. It’s a most anticipated series between Atlantic division rivals and the top two teams in the East during the regular season.

I bet the Lightning (-115) to win the series and  provided some insight on the match-up at TheLines which I’ve also included below.

Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning open Game 1 a slight -115 favorite with the total 5.5 (Under -134). The puck line is Tampa Bay -1.5 (+225). The games are expected to be tight, just like the series line at DraftKings Sportsbook with a -109 moneyline for either side.

Tampa Bay won the season series 3-1 and then the round robin seeding game as well. Every contest was decided by one goal except for an empty net tally to seal a 5-3 Lightning win at Boston five days before the pandemic ended the regular season in March. That game set the tone with high intensity and competitive juices as 26 penalties were called including five misconducts. The difference when the two teams battle in the playoffs is that Boston now plays without star goaltender Tuukka Rask, who opted out of the bubble and playoffs. His replacement, Jaroslav Halak, has the worst Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of any goalie remaining in the playoffs.

Boston does get their leading scorer back just in time against the Lighting, who led the league in goals during the regular season. Winger David Pastrnak returned last game after missing three contests with an upper body injury. He picked up a pair of assists in the series clinching win over Carolina, and Pastrnak’s return is key as the Bruins dominant goal scorer this season with 48 and 95 points. Pastrnak had 20 power play goals for Boston’s elite power play unit, and 3 goals 2 assists against the Lightning in five games.

While the Bruins top scorer returns, the Lightning continue without their captain and top scorer Steven Stamkos. He’s yet to appear in the playoffs and is rehabbing from core surgery March 2. Stamkos had 29 goals and 66 points in 57 games, trailing only linemate Nikita Kucherov (33/52 and 85 points). Stamkos led the Lighting with 10 power play goals, but fellow center Brayden Point has picked up the slack in the playoffs with a team high five goals and 10 points including a pair of overtime winning goals against Columbus in Round 1. The Lightning’s depth showed against Columbus too, as the third line was pivotal in their play racking up 68% of the expected goals 5-on-5 when they were on the ice – according to Evolving hockey.

Center Blake Coleman, a February addition from New Jersey, is an outstanding two-way player and defensive forward who adds offensive ability as a 20-goal scorer. The Lighting are deeper and also have Vezina Trophy winning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy and four-time Norris Trophy finalist Victor Hedman anchoring the defense. Hedman is one of the elite blue line players and top scoring defensemen with 55 points this season, which is tops among defenseman remaining in the playoffs.

After going 0-3 in the round robin, the Bruins bounced back as the No. 4 playoff seed and took out Carolina in five games. But four of those were one-score contests and only once was Boston able to score more than three goals in regulation. It took four third period goals in Game 4 to win 4-3. Boston ranked No. 25 in the league in Scoring Chances For this season, and without more offensive punch and weaker goaltending, it’s going to be tough to take out Tampa Bay even with Samkos out of the Lightning lineup.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks joined the NY Islanders in pulling off Round 1 upsets. Vancouver eliminated the defending Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues, and now the Canucks are the biggest underdog in Round 2 against top seed Vegas. The Golden Knights are -305 to beat Vancouver and advance to the Western Conference Finals while the Canucks takeback as underdog is +245 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Game 1 shows Vegas (-186) favored against Vancouver (+160) and the total 5.5 (Over -124).

From a goals for and goals against perspective, these two teams were nearly even during the shorted regular season. Vegas scored 227 goals and Vancouver 228. The Golden Knights allowed 211 and the Canucks 217 – and Vegas played two more games than Vancouver. But the equality ends there. In its short history, Vegas is 8-0-2 against Vancouver. The Canucks are the only team in the league that has yet to defeat the Golden Knights in regulation.

The Knights will start goalie Robin Lehner, a late season acquisition from Chicago who played four of the five Round 1 playoff games against the Black Hawks; his former team. The Swede has been a sweet pickup for Vegas, posting an 8-1 record and .904 save percentage in his brief time with the Golden Knights. Veteran goalie Marc-Andre Fleury was superb in his game against Chicago, and will likely still see some time in net as long as Vegas continues to advance. Vegas is the least penalized team remaining in the playoffs, averaging just six minutes per game thus far in the 2020 postseason. The Knights fended off 11-of-12 on the penalty kill against Chicago. Meanwhile, Vancouver has drawn a league-high 57 penalties in 10 playoff games leading to 47 opportunities on the power play, which also is tops in the league.

The Canucks power play ranked No. 4 in the league during the regular season. Vegas is deeper and more talented than Vancouver with balanced scoring and strength from wingers Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone and Reilly Smith. Centers Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson add to Vegas’ strong forecheck and defenseman Shea Theodore joins Vancouver’s Quinton Hughes as one of the top-5 scoring defensemen remaining in the playoffs. The Knights depth and third line of Alex Tuch, Nick Cousins (from Montreal) and rookie center Nic Roy were dominant against Chicago and give Vegas the edge over Vancouver. Roy joined the Knights in early March and played two games before the pandemic cut short the regular season. He picked up his first goal at Edmonton and Rogers Place where the Western Conference playoffs are now held. No team in the NHL has been better than the Golden Knights at even strength since the restart. Vegas leads the league in shot share at 60.16 percent, and also scoring-chance share (60.06 percent) and expected goal share (62.82 percent), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Vancouver was outshout and had far less puck possession against St. Louis, but was able to win the series thanks to stellar goaltending by Jacob Markstrom and strong finishing ability by the Canucks top forwards. The speedy Canucks have actually been outshot and out-chanced in seven of their nine games in the playoffs going back to their opening series win against Minnesota. But Vegas has superior depth and is much stronger.

Vancouver’s top three scorers are winger J.T. Miller and centers Elias Pettersson and Bo Horvat, all former No. 1 draft picks. Pettersson, Miller and Brock Boeser have combined for 12 postseason goals as a dangerous top line. Goaltender Jacob Markstrom is a big, veteran netminder who has turned himself into one of the better goalies in the league the past three seasons. Markstrom did not allow more than three goals in a game against the Blues in a six-game series win. Dallas was able to upset Colorado in Game 1 Saturday, but don’t bet on a Vancouver victory over Vegas Sunday or in this series.

Current Odds to Win the 2020 Stanley Cup

DraftKings Sportsbook odds Aug. 23

• +313 Vegas Golden Knights
• +478 Tampa Bay Lightning
• +506 Boston Bruins
• +572 Colorado Avalanche
• +628 Philadelphia Flyers
• +911 Dallas Stars
• +939 New York Islanders
• +1689 Vancouver Canucks