FairwayJay’s FREE College Football Selection November 9

FairwayJay’s Free College Football Selection November 9 & Game Analysis of LSU at Alabama

Line:  Alabama -12.5 I Total:  55

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Much anticipated game on CBS and we’ll provide some thoughts, analysis and chip-in with a selection. FairwayJay’s free college football selection November 9 features a pair of fierce SEC West rivals who have battled for SEC supremacy in recent years. Alabama qualifies as a defensive dominator allowing less than 12 ppg, 320 ypg, 120 rushing ypg and 50% completions. They also run and pass for over 260 ypg in league games.  LSU runs for 100 ypg less than Alabama, but has the top-tier passing attack to take advantage of the ‘Tides weakness in the secondary.

Alabama ( 8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) remains the #1 team in the country while LSU ( 7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS ) is chasing the ‘Tide and shooting for redemption on Saturday, November 9, 2013. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 ET from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL.  Alabama continues to roll and the Crimson Tide enter this SEC showdown on a 3-0 SU/ATS run while beating each of their last three SEC opponents by at least 35 points.  In Alabama’s five home games, the ‘Tide has allowed just 0, 3, 0, 6 and 10 points last week vs. Tennessee.  In those games, the Crimson Tide have been a betting favorite of 28, 29, 54, 14 and 40 points. Over their last 36 home games, Alabama has allowed an average of 7.3 points per game and also gone 16-7 ATS their last 23 SEC games.  So despite top rankings and increasing lines, Alabama has provided plenty of profit for their betting backers.

This season the Crimson Tide have performed their best in SEC games averaging 536 ypg and a league-best 7.6 yards per play.  Alabama leads the SEC in rushing with 268 ypg and 6.9 ypr, and LSU could struggle to slow the ‘Bama pound the ground attack as the Tigers allow 182 rushing ypg. So it appears on the surface and examining the stats that the ‘Tide will be tough to stop again with their strong, balanced offense and dominating defense.  But as we saw with Oregon Thursday night, it’s difficult to sustain peak performance week after week in college football, and in the rugged and physical SEC, it’s just too tough to be your best with quality competition every week.

This week LSU will be ready to take their best shot. More statistical strength shows both teams passing for nearly 270 ypg in SEC games and Alabama allowing just 50% completions and 197 passing ypg; 50 passing ypg less than LSU’s defense.  However, a closer inspection of opponents shows that Alabama has not faced more than one quality QB and passing attack.  In their only game against a top offense and QB, Alabama allowed 42 points and 628 total yards in a 49-42 win over Texas A&M. That’s where QB Zach Mettenberger and the Tigers thrive Saturday.  Mettenberger is #2 in the SEC in passing yards and touchdowns, and LSU has two of the SEC’s biggest receiving threats in Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, who have combined for nearly 1,900 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. Beckham is second nationally in all-purpose yards with 207 per game. The Tide has struggled to settle on a cornerback opposite Deion Belue and as shown against Texas A&M, they are suseptable in the secondary.

Last year Alabama beat LSU 21-17 and both defenses were dominating units. This year, LSU has a great offense under coordinator Cam Cameron and this game could see more scoring than projected despite Alabama’s strong stat profiles on defense. Note that the over is 6-1 in Alabama’s last seven conference games and 8-1 over in the Tigers last nine games on grass and 7-2 over in the Tigers last nine games overall.  Most people are surprised to hear that LSU has won five of the last six meetings over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Over the past nine meetings, these two teams are separated by a combined 12 points with an average score of 41 points.

This is by far Alabama’s toughest home test, and while the stat profiles may suggest another margin win by ‘Bama, I’m not convinced.  Let’s support the solid situation and competitive history and bite with the Tigers to be their best with the extra week of preparation and planning.

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FairwayJay’s FREE College Football Selection for Saturday, Nov. 9