Betting Teasers Week 9 NFL

Evaluating Additional Wagering Opportunities – Betting Teasers Week 9 NFL

I often receive messages from clients and other ‘Fairway Followers’ about betting NFL teasers and games/teams of interest on the weekly card. As part of my selection service to members I do provide teaser plays and recommendations.  This week I’ll include one game/team I added to my betting teasers week 9 NFL plays. The game analysis is below supporting the Cleveland Browns.

The Baltimore Ravens ( 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS ) travel off a bye week to battle division rival Cleveland Browns ( 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS ) on Sunday, November 3, 2013. Kickoff from FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, OH is at 4:25 ET and the Browns will try to snap their 11-game losing streak to the Ravens.

Line: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 l Total: 41.5

Play:  Add Cleveland Browns +8.5 to your 6-point teasers

Much talk about the Ravens 11-straight wins over the Browns including 5-0 ATS at this site in Cleveland. More advantages for the Super Bowl champion Ravens include entering this division rivalry game off a bye.  Nearly 70% of the bets are on Baltimore this week.  But I expect the Browns to come strong and win this game outright; making +8.5 on the teaser line a solid play in our weekly portfolio.

From veteran inside linebacker D’Qwell Jackson this week . “This is our game right before the bye week, so a lot of guys have put in extra effort this week. I like what I’ve been seeing this week, practice, the tempo at practice, guys being focused on the small detail things. “I’m more than confident that we can come out with a win. We very desperately need a win. To win three straight and then, lose three straight and knowing that we’ve been so close, I like our odds.”

So do I, even though the Browns offenses struggled in the first meeting with the Ravens this year; a 14-6 loss in week 2 with now benched QB Brandon Weeden in charge.  Cleveland led 6-0 at halftime, and recall the Browns played that game without their top WR Josh Gordon (suspended).  He has nearly 600 yards receiving in six games.  Neither the Ravens or Browns reached 300 yards offense in that game, and the Ravens offense and production has been disappointing along with the play of their offensive line. So too has the Browns offense, but after a slow start at Kansas City last week in which the Browns only ran 6 plays in the first quarter for 11 yards, Cleveland got their offense going.  Backup QB Jason Campbell had success against the Chiefs stout defense and the Browns averaged 6.7 yards per play with 350 yards offense. Campbell was sacked just one time on 36 pass attempts and the Chiefs lead the NFL in sacks.

The Ravens are running the ball for a league-worst 2.8 yards per rush and gaining just 74 rushing yards per game. That’s a problem when trying to move the chains against the Browns AFC #1 yards per play defense.  Already struggling and shuffling along the offensive line, the Ravens suffered another blow this week with the loss of starting left guard Kelechi Osemele, now out for the season and set to have back surgery.  The revamped left side of the Ravens offensive line will now have a converted center playing guard alongside newly signed left tackle Eugene Monroe. The Browns allow just 4.6 yards per play and 320 ypg.  Nose tackle Phil Taylor can be a dominant force in the middle and will require combination blocks. It’s safe to say the Ravens will struggle with their new OL personnel and blocking schemes, and further problems against the Browns is that few defensive coordinators blitz as creatively and aggressively as Cleveland’s Ray Horton. He’ll bring plenty of pressure and attack the Ravens front to force RB Ray Rice to stay in and block  more; another weakness of the Ravens that has resulted in 20 sacks of QB Joe Flacco.  You can blitz more when you have a star cover corner like Joe Haden in the secondary.  Cleveland’s pass defense allows a league-low 6.0 yards per pass play, while the Ravens allow 8.0 yards per pass play; third-worst in the AFC. Browns WR Josh Brown should have a big game as he averages over 18 yards per reception and can attack a Ravens secondary that has allowed 10 pass plays of over 40 yards; second-most in the NFL. Browns leading receiver TE Jordan Cameron (49 catches/6 TD’s) is very versatile and can also has the speed to get downfield.  He will be a key target, as the Ravens have struggled with tight ends in coverage all season.  I also expect the Browns pedestrian running game (still better than Baltimore’s) to have more success this week with RB Willis McGahee to carry a bigger load than 9 carries last week.

The Ravens defense is average from the line of scrimmage, allowing 5.4 yards per play and 343 ypg.  Baltimore is 1-3 on the road and this line is clearly based on perception, series history, Baltimore’s bye and the Browns 3-game losing streak. The perception is that the Browns are still a bad team, and while they are not a playoff caliber team, their defense is now a near dominant unit and need I remind you that they out-played and beat AFC North leader Cincinnati on this field 17-6 in week 4.  The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. teams with a losing record and 1-3-1 ATS their last five division games. The Browns are 4-1 ATS their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  None of those games included QB Jason Campbell, but I expect him to play well enough and improve on last week’s performance that was on the road against a stronger Kansas City defense.

The Browns have their bye next week before traveling for another division game at Cincinnati. Look for a big effort from Cleveland and a victory as ‘Dog at the Dawg pound should be no surprise, making teaser bets on the Browns a prudent play.