Monday Night Football Handicapping Week 6

Monday Night Football Handicapping – Indianapolis at San Diego

Monday Night Football week 6 features the the 2-3 Chargers hosting the 4-1 Colts and the Monday Night Football debut of QB Andrew Luck.  Turnovers have contributed to these two teams records as the Colts are +6 in turnover margin while the Chargers are -8 following 5 giveaways to the Raiders last week in defeat. Part of the perception of the Colts play now has them as a 2-point road favorite.  The Chargers boast one of the leagues stronger statistical offenses, as San Diego is averaging 402 ypg and 6.2 yards per play to rank top-5 in the NFL.  Indianapolis is averaging 362 ypg at 5.6 yards per play; also above league average. Unfortunately, the Chargers defense has been dreadful, allowing 406 ypg to rank #28 while the Colts allow 330 ypg. San Diego sack specialist and former Colt Dwight Freeney is out for the season following a torn quad muscle two weeks ago; further weakening the Chargers defense with the loss of an experienced leader.

From a point-of-attack perspective and line of scrimmage play, the Colts have committed to running the ball more, as they average 30 rushing attempts per game to the Chargers 25.  The Colts also get the return of fullback Stanley Havili (ankle) for this game, which should help the production of Colts RB Trent Richardson. We can expect Indianapolis to feature more balance on offense in this match-up as the Chargers allow 4.9 yards per rush but opponents have only run the ball an AFC-low 120 times on San Diego. Yet Colts QB Andrew Luck should turn in one of his best passing games of the season against a Chargers pass defense allowing 288 passing ypg and league-worst 70% completions and 8.6 yards per pass attempt.

The Colts defense is better suited to slow the aerial assault of Chargers QB Philip Rivers, as Indianapolis allows 201 passing ypg and 57% completions to rank top-5 in both categories. Rivers is among the top-5 league leaders with 322 passing ypg, 73% completions, 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 110 QB rating. He passed for over 400 yards each of the past two games despite offensive line injuries and shuffling up front. TE Antonio Gates will be a go-to guy as Rivers has done well despite a sub-par WR core with the top wide receiver posting 22 receptions. While the Colts defense is also deficient against the run allowing 4.8 ypr, Indy is slowly getting healthier with the return DL Ricky Jean-Francois this game. Strong safety LaRon Landry will miss his fourth-straight game with  high-ankle sprain.

Indianapolis is the least-penalized team in the league at less than 30 ypg. The Colts have covered 8-straight games vs. teams with a losing record, and while some of the match-ups look favorable vs. the Chargers, some situations do not. The Colts beat the strong Seahawks 34-28 last week at home in a game they were out-gained by over 100 yards. Seattle gained 423 yards against Indianapolis with a banged-up offensive line and in a difficult schedule and travel spot. It’s worth noting that Seattle’s strong, physical defense the past few years has taken its toll on opponents the following week. Now favored on the road following a home ‘Dog win, the Colts could  get ‘Bolted’ by a Chargers team that has dominated AFC South teams over the years, going 21-3 ATS.

I can’t make a solid case for either team although the situational factors and some technical indicators point to the Chargers. Yet despite a high-total of 50, it appears both teams will have enough success and passing attempts to warrant more big plays in the passing game. Each team averages 64 plays per game; right near he league average. Both Chargers home games went over 50 points this season, yet the Colts two road games both had less than 41 points scored. The Colts 27-7 road win at  San Francisco was most impressive, so playing outdoors on grass should hardly slow down the Colts offense, especially against the deficient defense of the Chargers.

I’m not involved in this game, but lean over the total as the preferred play.

@FairwayJay