Fairway’s Football Forecast – Week 6 NFL Picks and Predictions

FairwayJay chips in his NFL Week 6 underdog picks looking to add to his profits from 11-7 ATS mark this season following a 16-8 ATS record last year. Follow FairwayJay has he fires for the flag and green in pursuit of more profit with his point spread prognosis. Two more outright underdog winners last week makes it 8 outright ‘Dog winners this season.

Identifying Underdogs and Parlays for Profit – Week 6 NFL Picks

Throughout the pro football season, we’ll post NFL picks, predictions and parlays with a focus on underdogs. Like our weekly college football picks and parlay for profit underdog picks and predictions, we’ll take a similar approach in the NFL. However, with fewer games each week, finding four underdogs to join Fairway’s Foursome is far more challenging. Still, we’ll Chip-in our thoughts and analysis, and perhaps modify our course management along the way.

All four teams with starting rookie quarterbacks won last week, and all four were underdogs – NY Jets, Browns, Bills and Cardinals, who picked up their first win. We had the Jets and Browns on our week 5 picks and Fairway foursome, and we’re hoping for some sustained success from Cleveland this week as they host the LA Chargers.

Do your best throughout each week to anticipate line moves and bet the best numbers, including with your NFL Week 6 picks. With so many offshore options and leading online sportsbooks to choose from and compare, it should be reasonable to expect using due diligence in your search for the best numbers. That said, we release these plays late in the week and can’t always provide the best numbers, but we’ll continue to chip-in our best to make more birdies and get the green.

Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth consideration, as many of these barking ‘Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright. Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your betting portfolio. We’ve had 8 outright underdog winners through 5 weeks while going 11-7 ATS.

In the NFL, competitively-priced underdogs are 6-points or less. We’ll add in some bigger ‘Dogs along the way like we did two weeks ago with the 49ers (+10.5) winner, as San Fran just missed the outright win. The Lions (+7) did protect their den when we used them in Week 3 to pound the Patriots as a big home ‘Dog. Straight wagers are the focus and prudent plays but we add some parlays and guidelines knowing too it’s difficult to not only hit a straight parlay, but especially a money line ‘Dog parlay. However, the payoff is sure sweet if it delivers. Know too that just 3 ‘Dogs on the 15-game Week 4 card won outright, and we had two of them in our Fairway foursome pick pack.

So join Fairway’s Foursome and follow along as we fire for the flag and go for the green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway’s Football Forecast.

NFL Week 6 picks and plays – three ‘Dogs this week. Shop lines at the leading online sports books  and at the Las Vegas sportsbooks.

254 Cleveland (pk) vs LA Chargers – Browns Money Line +100
261 Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Cincinnati – Steelers Money Line +110
274 Tennessee (+3) vs Baltimore – Titans Money Line +125

$20 3-Team Money Line Parlay = $169
$20 3-Team Parlay = 120

Los Angeles at Cleveland – We cashed in on the Browns last week in Cleveland’s 12-9 OT win as home underdog. We also nailed UNDER the total in that contest, and now the Browns are taking money against the Chargers. The line has dipped from the opener of -2, as the Chargers travel East for an early start and the Browns gaining confidence. All five Cleveland games have been decided by 4 points or less, and this appears to be another close one. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has a quick release to offset defensive pressure, and he uses his running backs often in the passing game, as they are among the best in routes and yards after catch. Rivers 8.1 yards per pass is superb, but Browns QB Baker Mayfield has been the best of the rookies while averaging 6.8 yards per pass. That despite Cleveland’s receivers leading the league in drop passes. The Browns have shown good balance using their running game, and the offense and Mayfield go from facing a top-tier Ravens pass defense last week to the Chargers lower-tier pass defense this week. Let’s play the better defense at home as the Browns go for very rare back-to-back victories.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – The Steelers are taking money at the sportsbooks and the line has dropped from +2.5. Cincinnati (4-1) picked up their second, or even third fortunate late win last week rallying from 17-0 in the second half to win 27-17 over Miami. The Bengals are 4-1 but being out-gained by 28 yards per game. See common opponent Atlanta and boxscore review to know that the Steelers are still a stronger team overall, but also more inconsistent. Running back L’Veon Bell remains out but looks like he’ll be returning soon, yet the high-powered Steelers offense remains strong with QB Big Ben targeting Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who each have 35 receptions this season. Teams are targeting the Bengals secondary, completing 27 passes per game for more than 275 yards per game. And the Bengals defense is allowing a league-high 53% conversions on 3rd down; on pace to be the highest rate in the last 15 years. Pittsburgh’s defense is not much better, but can use cornerback Joe Haden to shadow WR AJ Green, as Haden slowed Julio Jones and held him to season-low production. The Steelers defense also leads the league in sacks with 19, and Bengals QB Andy Dalton will be under more pressure this week. Pittsburgh has a bye next week, and a big effort to close in on the Bengals is projected knowing too the Steelers have beaten the Bengals six straight times and seven of the last eight on this field. Preseason line had the Steelers favored by 4 points in this contest, and we’ll play Pittsburgh to win.

Baltimore at Tennessee – Last week the Ravens were a 3-point favorite at Cleveland, and Baltimore plays its third straight road game laying the same price against a better Titans team. Some 3’s still available, as the Titans have taken a little money, and note too the lookahead line on this game more than a week ago was Baltimore -1. Both teams are 3-2, and the Ravens third straight road games puts them in a negative ATS situation that has cashed at just a 43% rate historically. Baltimore is also off two grueling division games plus overtime last week in the 12-9 loss at Cleveland that gave us side, total and money line wins. Tennessee burned many bettors last week and teaser players, as they lost at Buffalo 13-12 as a 6 point favorite at close. Titans OT Taylor Lewan will play, which was part of delay in reviewing injury reports and posting, and QB Marcus Mariota will also play. Tennessee does run the ball an average of 29 times per game, but just 3.7 yards per rush. But Baltimore is worse at 3.2 YPR, and both teams have played in a number of games with poor weather conditions that has suppressed scoring. Weather won’t be favorable again Sunday in Nashville with rain likely and up to 15 MPH winds already affecting the dropping total from 42. Dog and UNDER parlay preferred if you play it, and we’re on Tennessee.

Best wishes with your NFL Week 6 plays and parlays as you shoot for more green and profit from the experience.