College Basketball Crowns NIT and CBI Champions this Week

NIT, CBI, CIT Crown Champions Leading into NCAA Tournament Final Four

Article posted at OSGA.com.

The Final Four is set in the NCAA Tournament and the odds to win are posted at the sports books in Las Vegas with North Carolina (+140) the favorite to tear down the nets as the national champion, followed by Gonzaga (+180), Oregon (+550) and South Carolina (+750). But the Mid-Major Madness continues in the other postseason tournaments that will crown champions this week. That’s where our winners and picks have produced the most profit with many more underdog winners (Dogs 17-11 ATS all NIT), while the NCAA Tournament has been a coin flip for us this year.

Mid-Major Madness headlines the College Basketball Insider (CBI) best-of-3 finals, and Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt) put on a high-flying offensive display to beat Wyoming (Mountain West) at home 91-81 in Game 1. That victory improved our NIT/CBI combined plays to 11-2 ATS. The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers were a 1-point home underdog, and since the inception of the CBI following the 2007 regular season, home underdogs are now 15-1-1 against the spread (ATS). Keep that in your archive for future CBI tournaments. The series shifts to Laramie, where the altitude is the highest in the country (7,165 feet), and Wyoming will try to win both games at home where the Cowboys are always their best winning more than 71% of their home games the last 11 seasons.

Leading offshore and Las Vegas sports books have posted the line and total for Game 2 on Wednesday, March 29. Game 3 if necessary is March 31 in Laramie at Arena-Auditorium.

Wyoming -7.5
Coastal Carolina +7.5
Total 156.5

Game 1 flew over the 153.5 total. Wyoming is 17-3 at home at Arena-Auditorium this season, including 3-0 SU/ATS in the CBI shooting better than 51% FG combined in three games. Overall, the Cowboys have cashed in 12 of 18 lined games at home this season including going 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS vs non-conference opponents. The Cowboys were a home underdog in one of those non-conference games and won, and in the other eight contests the average point spread was exactly 8 points. Totals went 5-4 over/under in those nine home games but the three highest totals were the three CBI games, all posted at 159 or higher and those games went 1-2 over /under. Wyoming has averaged 77 points per game this season vs NCAA board teams, including 80 PPG at home.

In the least-watched tournament, the College Insider (CIT) semi-finals are Wednesday, March 30 on campus sites. The home teams listed below are both the favorites.

St. Peter’s -3
Firman +3
Totals 124

MD Baltimore County -2.5
Texas A&M Corpus Christi +2.5
Total 157

In the National Invitational Tournament (NIT), the Final Four is set at Madison Square Garden in New York starting March 28.

Georgia Tech -2
Cal State Bakersfield +2
Total 124

TCU -2.5
Central Florida (UCF) +2.5
Total 133

Both these totals are up sharply from the opener with the sides holding steady at the sports books. Cal State Bakersfield is trying to break through as a mid-major, but history suggests it will be difficult for the Roadrunners. cal-State Bakersfield was the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) regular season champs and have won 25 games this season. They were only on the betting board five times during the regular season, but this experienced and seasoned team has blown up the sports books during the NIT, going 3-0 SU/ATS winning all three games on the road against solid entries California, Colorado State and Texas Arlington. Including the two WAC tourney games, all five of the Roadrunners postseason games have gone over the total. The reason that’s noted is that Cal-State Bakersfield is a defensive dominator, ranking top-20 in the country in scoring defense and No. 3 in the country in field goal defense, allowing just 37% shooting from the floor.

The crowd at MSG is going to favor Georgia Tech from the ACC, and few fans are likely to travel in support of Cal-State Bakersfield. In addition, mid-majors and especially those from the West Coast and Rockies have struggled in the 50 years the semi-finals and finals have been played at Madison Square Garden.

Pac-12 teams UCLA, CAL and Stanford (3x) have all won the NIT. The only other team to win the NIT from the Rockies and West is Fresno State. A total of 21 other teams from the West have failed to win the NIT, and 16 of those teams were not a member of the Pac-12 conference. Those 16 teams are just 4-12 straight-up (SU) in the semi-final round at Madison Square Garden, with only Fresno State emerging as the NIT champion.

The winner of that NIT semi-final game will play the TCU/UCF winner. Both those teams have experienced coaches in their first year at their new schools. TCU’s Jamie Dixon and Central Florida’s Johnny Dawkins have guided turnaround seasons for the programs, as both teams have improved by at least 10 wins from last year’s 12-win seasons. TCU is the highest-rated RPI team (67) remaining in the tournament. But UCF qualifies as a defensive dominator ranking top-5 in the country in scoring defense (61 PPG) and No. 1 in field goal defense (36.3). Central Florida coach Dawkins also won two NIT championships coaching at Stanford.

However, the Horned Frogs are the highest-rated team remaining in the tournament. TCU has the Big 12’s No. 2 rebounder (Williams), shot-blocker (Brodziansky, 80) and No. 3 assist man (Williams), but the Frogs missed out on the NCAA Tournament when they sunk down the stretch and lost their final seven regular season games. But a Big 12 conference tournament win over Kansas is part of TCU’s 5-1 run with five games going over the total. A tall order to take out the Knights and their dominant defense led by nation’s tallest player Tacko Fall (7’6), who has blocked 88 shots while averaging nearly 10 rebounds per game anchoring the middle and guyarding the rim. But TCU’s turnaround can be attributed to Dixon and his staff’s coaching of a cohesive group with four senior’s that have experienced the depths of TCU teams that went 0-18 in Big 12 play four seasons ago and won just two conference games last season. A great finish with two turnaround teams and the likely NIT champion coming from the Big 12 or American Athletic Conference.