College Football Week 4 Underdog Picks and Predictions

Identifying College Football Underdogs and Parlays for Profit

A strong Week 3 on these pages showed a 3-1 result isolating underdogs with three outright ‘Dog winners. We continue our risk vs. reward and search for value and live underdogs in our weekly pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth examining, as many of these barking ‘Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright. Such was the case with our easy outright winners last week on Syracuse (+3) 30-7, North Texas (+7) 44-17 and San Diego State (+6) 28-21, a game in which the Aztecs dominated at the point of attack with a 311-36 rushing advantage. Syracuse also used a strong rushing edge (222—62) to smash the Seminoles of Florida State.

Teams that out-rush an opponent by at least a 2-1 margin in a college football game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. That’s a long term proven profile going back nearly 20 years, so if you can handicap that part of a game correctly and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to more winners and profit. Try to isolate which teams are likely to run the ball very well, or slow the opponents running game, and that will point you in the right direction and assist you in point of attack play and analysis.

Of the 55 lined FBS games last week, there were 11 outright underdog winners of +3 or more points. We nailed three of them as part of Fairway’s Foursome. We missed our double-digit ‘Dog, but note that there were some huge upsets last week with BYU (+23.5) winning at Wisconsin and Akron (+21) embarrassing another Big Ten team by whipping the Northwestern Wildcats 39-34. We’re going to take a shot at two big underdogs this week, so read more below along with the list of those 11 outright winners.

The significant line adjustments and moves continue, as there are at least 7 games this week in which the betting line is 10 or more points from where it would have been opening week. That’s what happens where you have non-conference mismatches between Power 5 programs and weaker teams in Group 5 or FCS. Totals continue to move significantly, and if you chase big moves, it can often bite you like last week’s Alabama 62-7 final (total closed 71), in which ‘Bama led 49-7 at halftime. Ouch.

The power ratings, performances and perceptions continue to change as the bookmaker makes adjustments in price. Some of the adjustments are an over-reaction, some not enough, and others are just inflation in price due to top teams crushing their early season opponents. That’s the case with the top-2 teams in the country, as both Alabama and Georgia have won by huge margins in their 3-0 start and are laying big prices again this week in SEC play.

We’re going to attack a marquee match-up this week with a big ‘Dog protecting its home turf in the SEC. The sportsbooks took more money last week, as underdogs went 37-27-2 ATS overall, but some of the biggest favorites did roll to huge spread-covering wins like Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi State and Penn State.

The linemaker can only inflate the prices to bet on these powerful higher-ranked teams knowing most bettors will keep riding those horses to the finish line until it kicks them off or sh*ts on itself.

It’s up to us and you to have the balls to play value on capable teams and even some of those perceived ‘bad’ teams that may be in for a correction. Or at least show some semblance of positive stat profiles in some key areas, which can be point of attack play and a positive yards-per-play differential. Avoid laying points with teams struggling in those areas, and you’ll start to see better results in your point spread prognosis.

Bet college football underdogs at Elite-Rated reduced juice sportsbook 5Dimes.

Follow along in Fairway’s Foursome as we fire for the flag and go for the green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway’s Football Forecast.

Here’s a brief recap of some underdogs of note that won outright last week. We’ll keep to FBS games and opponents only, and list them in schedule rotation order from last week.

Temple (+16) at Maryland – Owls won 35-14
Syracuse (+3) vs Florida State – Orange won 30-7
Troy (+10.5) at Nebraska – Trojans won 24-19
Pittsburgh (+3.5) vs Georgia Tech – Panthers won 24-19
BYU (+23.5) at Wisconsin – Cougars won 24-21
LSU (+10) at Auburn – Tigers won 22-21
UAB (+4) vs Tulane – Blazers won 31-24
Duke (+6) at Baylor – Blue Devils won 40-27
North Texas (+6.5) at Arkansas – Mean Green won 44-17
Akron (+21) at Northwestern – Zips won 39-34
San Diego State (+6) vs Arizona State – Aztecs won 28-21

This week’s underdog plays – Shop lines at the leading online sportsbooks.

324 Purdue (+7) vs Boston College – Boilermakers Money Line +210
380 Texas (+3) vs TCU – Longhorns Money Line +125
383 Louisiana Tech (+21) at LSU – Bulldogs Money Line +1,000
404 Missouri (+14.5) vs Georgia – Tigers Money Line +500

$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $9,187
$20 4-Team Parlay = $220
$20 3-Team Money Line Parlay = $817 (minus La Tech)

Boston College at Purdue – In our continued search for value and pursuit of profit, we buy on winless Purdue (0-3) against unbeaten Boston College (3-0). Those results have provided a full TD of value from opening week, and Purdue has lost all three home games by a combined 8 points while out-gaining each opponent, including Missouri in last week’s last second loss to the Tigers 40-37, who we will also line up with this week. The Boilers are averaging nearly 200 rushing and more than 325 passing yards per game against a stronger slate than Boston College, who has beaten nobody of significance and that includes Wake Forest. Boston College does run the ball well and has a capable pass defense to slow the ‘Boilers pass attack and QB Blough, who set a Purdue passing record last week with 572 passing yards. Boston College enters the top-25 AP Poll this week with their best start since 2007 when some QB named Matt Ryan was at the controls. Rankings don’t matter except for program visibility, public perception and something more for the media to talk about. What does matter is money, and no team has collected more than Boston College, who is on a 12-0 ATS streak in regular season games dating to last season. But we’re betting on the ‘Boilers and coach Brohm to snap that streak as we collect the cash and do it doggy style looking for another outright winner.

TCU at Texas – The eye test says TCU (2-1) has more speed than Texas (2-1), and the Horned Frogs showed some in last week’s neutral site loss to Ohio State, 40-27. TCU allowed over 500 yards and 2 defensive scores in defeat while also rolling up more than 500 yards offense themselves. Now they travel in-state to Austin against a Texas team we played last week as a small home favorite and the ‘Horns used a blocked FG return TD to blow out USC in the 3rd quarter of a 37-14 win. Texas out-rushed USC 160 to minus-5, and that running game and defense puts us back on the Longhorns despite TCU winning the last four meetings. The Longhorns will be fully focused and gained some momentum with last week’s effort and head coach Tom Herman and the ‘Horns were 5-1 ATS as ‘Dog last year with their only non-cover against TCU in a 24-7 defeat. Hook ‘em.

Louisiana Tech at LSU – Conference USA’s La. Tech (2-0) enters off a bye week, and the Bulldogs should be more motivated to play SEC big brother in the state of Louisiana. What a conference sandwich spot for LSU, who pulled off the double-digit ‘Dog upset last week at Auburn on a come from behind last second field goal, 22-21. Now the line goes up and the Tigers exhale in a letdown spot. In defeating two softies to start the season. La. Tech has averaged 42 points per game and more than 525 yards offense with a balanced attack. Love veteran coach Skip Holtz, who is at his best as a barking ‘Dog with a log of 11-3 ATS as road ‘Dog the past four seasons including 3-0 ATS away last year. LSU’s defense will present a strong challenge, but La. Tech’s defensive front and secondary is solid. A big step up in class for certain,  but recall the Bulldogs took SEC’s South Carolina to the wire in a low-scoring 1-point road loss last season. To reinforce our point on value, this line would have been 14-15 opening week. The Tigers are overachieving, and also 0-4 ATS in their last four games as favorite vs. non-conference opponents. Oh, and LSU lost to Troy on this field last year laying 21. Great spot for a motivated big barking ‘Dog.

Georgia at Missouri – Key SEC East clash, and another inflated line for #2 ranked Georgia (3-0). Sure it’s tough to step in front of a bulging Bulldog that has buried its three opponents while scoring 40+ points each game. The Dawgs are also 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games away from home. But must take here on the vastly underrated Missouri Tigers (3-0), who feature a future NFL quarterback in Drew Lock, a 1st team SEC QB last year who passed for nearly 4,000 yards with 44 TD’s and returned for his senior season to play for top mind and former NFL offensive coordinator Derek Dooley. Locke has shown more poise and patience to go along with his strong arm, and has an 11-1 TD-to-INT ratio and more than 1,000 passing yards this season for a high-powered Missouri offense. The Tigers have scored at least 40 points in its three victories while averaging nearly 600 yards per game with a solid and veteran offensive line. Missouri is also improved on defense, especially against the run allowing less than 80 rushing YPG this early season. Plenty of points still expected, and did you know Mizzu has won their last 9 regular season games and scored at least 40 points in each victory? The Tigers last loss was to these Georgia Bulldogs, 53-28. Great bet on Missouri if you have the balls.

We had one of our very best weeks in college football last week with 8 winners total that included our 3 outright underdog winners on these pages, and we see many more underdogs worth supporting this week, even bad teams that are tough for many to bet.  A few Fairway favorites will also be in our portfolio this week as we continue our pursuit of profit and analysis to better inform and assist others with handicapping and approach shots that put the percentages in our favor to produce profit.

Article posted at osga.com.