College Basketball Handicapping – Analysis of a Winning Wager

The Emotions of College Basketball and Analysis of a Winning Wager

The college basketball regular season came to a close Sunday, and CBS was in Evanston, Illinois to televise the final game at Welsh-Ryan Arena between the Northwestern Wildcats and Purdue

Boilermakers. A complete $110 million renovation was announced last summer for Welsh-Ryan Arena, and the emotional final game was also senior day as the Wildcats concluded their Big Ten season and what will be their first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance; a story that CBS play-by-play announcer Jim Nantz calls ‘the biggest story in college basketball.’

The latest bracketology update for the projected NCAA Tournament field has Purdue a #4 seed as the Big Ten regular season champions and Northwestern in the NCAA Tournament as a #8 seed. Northwestern won their eighth Big Ten game of the season in dramatic fashion March 1 on a 94-foot pass and layin at the buzzer to beat Michigan and send the fans into a frenzy. In the biggest play of the season and perhaps in Northwestern basketball history, Dererk Pardon caught the length of the court pass and kissed the glass with a layup at the buzzer. Coming off that emotional high and dramatic victory is part of the excitement and emotion of college basketball, and we though it would be tough obstacle for the Wildcats to overcome in their final game of the regular season, while also having to take on the Big Ten champion Purdue Boilermakers.

We provided a Top Play Big Bertha play on Purdue (-3.5) and also a bet ‘under’ the total. Members were also provided a recommendation to buy the 1/2-point as needed and also play the money line for a portion of their wager. Purdue, who is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, was 0-for-9 from the 3-point line in the 2nd half and just 4/19 from long range for the game. Tied at halftime, the Boilermakers built a 9-point lead with 6 minutes remaining, but the Wildcats still had some energy left to claw back and make it close to the end. We pulled through in a coin-flip finish against the spread (ATS) as Purdue hit 3-of-4 late free throws to win 69-65 for both a side and total winner. Boy, the linemaker is good (-3.5/137).

When handicapping and betting college basketball games, know that 40-42% of all college basketball games land within 5-points of the betting line. This one was right there.

Here is the analysis I provided to members, and also for osga.com members, where I am a featured writer and analyst for the Off Shore Gaming Association.

Purdue (-3.5) over Northwestern

What a win for Northwestern at home March 1 over Michigan. The 94-foot pass and layin at the buzzer gave them a 67-65 storm the courts victory over Michigan. It also secured the Wildcats first-EVER trip to the NCAA Tournament. The emotions of college basketball are the best, and now the Wildcats are in one of the worst possible situations coming off that long-lasting high. It’s senior day in Evanston, and the emotions will be even stronger in the final game at Welsh-Ryan Arena.

 Northwestern is 10-7 in the Big Ten and currently in 5^th place. Unfortunately, their opponent is the Big Ten champion Boilermakers (13-4). Purdue is supremely well-coached by Matt Painter, and the Boilers have the statistical profile of a champion with top-20 offensive and defensive efficiency, Big Ten-best scoring, free throws, scoring margin, rebounding margin, assist, and oh, top-5 in the country in 3-point shooting (41%). While the Big Ten seems a bit down, the Boilermakers are also a bit disrespected in NCAA Tournament seeding with many projecting a #4 seed. This team wants to move up, and they are in the right spot to win on the road. Purdue has already won at Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, and Maryland. The Boilermakers last road game was a pretty poor performance at Michigan when the Wolves shot lights out to snap the Purdue’s 6-game win streak. But the Boilermakers bounced back to bury state-rival Indiana worse than the final score indicated, 86-75.  Purdue is also 16-9 ATS this season, and the Boilers whipped the Wildcats 80-59 Feb. 1 shutting down Northwestern’s perimeter shooting while hitting 12-23 long range themselves and dominating the boards. Northwestern has a negative rebounding margin as one of the worst in the Big Ten. The Wildcats do play solid defense and give little away with turnovers, which is a credit to young coach Collins who has elevated the program and play. But Purdue is not only the stronger and better team at a short road price, but the situation and emotional edge couldn’t be better with Northwestern off their huge energy and emotional win. Purdue is a Top Play and the ‘under’ is worth a bet as well with Northwestern shooting 41% FG in Big Ten play to rank #13 with fewer possessions projected.