NFL Handicapping – Record Super Bowl Total Suggests Shootout between Patriots and Falcons

Fans and Bettors Look forward to Scoring Shootout and Prop Bets in Super Bowl

This article was posted at OSGA.com.

Prior to the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games, I wrote an article on the two conference title games and the playoff record total of 61 that was posted between Atlanta and Green Bay. The Falcons continued to fly in a 44-21 victory to send them to the Super Bowl, and QB Matt Ryan rolled up nearly 400 passing yards and 4 TDs; surpassing his total passing yards prop we recommended for the 2^nd straight playoff game.

In that championship game article, I also recommended playing ‘over’ 54 as an advance wager on the Super Bowl that a majority of the sports books were offering. Feeling the Super Bowl total would be higher upon completion of the conference championship games, there was some value on the advance Super Bowl total and an opportunity to lock in a better number with playback later as interested. Professional bettors and ‘sharps’ make these type of wagers often when the opportunity is presented, and in Las Vegas the Westgate SuperBook posts advance NFL lines for the following weeks games every week of the season.

However, considering the Super Bowl total was available to bet at 49 near Christmas, you can see the reaction and total movement based on the playoff results and public perception.  The sports books were not going to get burned again posting a lower total knowing the public was still going to bet over the total. The two Falcons playoff games had 56 and 65 points scored, and Atlanta games have soared over the total in 15 of 18 games this season, including 2 of the last 3 vs. the Saints and Packers when the posted totals were at least 58.5 points. Considering Atlanta will now face the NFL’s #1 scoring defense in New England (16 PPG), you can see why many sharp bettors and wise guys are going to be betting ‘under’ the Super Bowl total. Many will wait until close to kickoff to bet ‘under’, as the Super Bowl betting line and total will be driven by public money – more than any other game. The public will bet more money and have more tickets on the ‘over’ come game time, as value and stats are rendered less meaningful to recreational bettors. They see scoring and bet on the Falcons high-flying offense and the Patriots offense with QB Brady.

Sometimes teams just continue to outpace the market and expectations, including the linemakers numbers. That’s the case with the Falcons, who have been undervalued from a totals perspective while accumulating over 420 yards per game this season with a record 6.7 yards per play (YPPL). Historically, Atlanta’s offense ranks top-10 all-time in the NFL. The Falcons yards per play differential of +1.1 is bar far the best in the NFL (gain 6.7 YPPL, allow 5.6 YPPL), and the next closest is the Patriots (+0.7 YPPL – 5.9 offense, 5.2 defense).

So we really have two top entrants in this year’s Super Bowl which should provide more entertainment and scoring, unlike last year’s 24-10 Broncos win as a 6-point underdog over the Panthers, as Denver featured the league’s No. 1 dominant defense and we bet on them to deliver and they did along with the total staying well under the 45 points which was bet down to 43.5.

The super high total in this year’s Super Bowl means the Falcons and Patriots have to score more touchdowns and not settle for FG’s, and avoid turnovers in the red zone. Also, any key injuries during the game (QB, or like Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell last game vs NE), makes this very high total a potential risk for ‘over’ bettors. Still, have to believe both teams will move the ball very well, even with the Patriots great coaches and schemes, as the Falcons have taken flight to another level this season. The Falcons and Patriots are the two best offenses in football by many metrics and ratings. Atlanta has scored 33 or more points in 6 straight games. I’ve seen and reviewed plenty of ‘offense’ (ATL) vs ‘defense’ stats and the historical significance and results of such Super Bowl match-ups. But the Patriots have posted the best scoring stats based more on a softer schedule and facing sub-par quarterbacks, and New England often out-performs their stat profiles due to superior coaching, game-planning and opponents faced this season. Past history using some of these stats guidelines points to the Patriots and under. But this Falcons team has out-performed expectations while flying to new heights on offense and improving on defense despite an undersized defensive line. Speed and quickness is the Falcons formula on offense and defense, and they have taken advantage of the uptick in scoring and rules changes better than any other team this season.

Consider too that the Falcons and Patriots rank No. 1 and No. 3 in full-season points per game, No. 2 and No. 4 in yards per game, and No. 1 and No. 5 in yards per play. In two previous Super Bowls in which two offenses ranked top-5 in those stats, the final scores were Packers 35-21 over the Patriots in 1997 and Cowboys 52-17 over the Bills in 1992.

Look for the Falcons to keep the gas pedal down on offense, as they take advantage of the Patriots weakest area on pass defense (rank #14 pass yards against facing sub-par QBs). Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is likely calling his final game for the Falcons, and he’ll spread the field and let QB Ryan distribute the ball to his playmakers. The Patriots will try to minimize top WR weapon Julio Jones. New England was somewhat successful doing that last week at home in colder and windier weather against Steelers star WR Antonio Brown (7/77 yards, zero TDs), but Pittsburgh missed some scoring chances, dropped balls and failed to score a TD after a reversal with a 1^st and goal at the 1-yard line.

The Patriots should get their share of yards and points, and with mastermind coach Belichick game-planning to the Falcons weakness, he should be running the ball plenty with bruising back LaGarrette Blount and dynamo Dion Lewis. The Patriots faced five stronger defenses than the Falcons the last five games, and scored at least 34 points in four of them with only a road game in December at Denver against the Broncos top defense holding them in check. Atlanta allows 4.54 yards per rush inside the tackles which ranked No. 28 in the league. Both the Chiefs and Saints had success running the ball against the Falcons late in the season, and the Seahawks and Packers rushed the ball well and for big yards per rush attempts in the playoffs despite playing from behind against Atlanta. Both top QBs Brees and Rodgers passed for The Falcons also allow 2.05 yards per rush after contact, which ranks last in the league. If Atlanta struggles to stop the run, then the Patriots are likely to expose this match-up and pound the ball more often. After all, that’s what Belichick and his staff does, is find and expose an opponent’s weakness. Running the ball and controlling the ball, clock and chains by the Patriots while keeping the Falcons offense on the sidelines could keep this total from being reached.

Both QB’s Brees and Rogers passed 45+ times for significant yards, so Brady is likely to have another strong game as he tries for his record 5^th Super Bowl victory in the Patriots record 9^th Super Bowl appearance.

Some props to target: Shop sports books for best lines

Atlanta to have more 1^st downs

Shortest TD under 1 ½ yards

RB Devonta Freeman over 3.5 receptions

RB LaGarrette Blount over 60.5 rushing yards (56.5 in Las Vegas, -130 opened)

Total touchdowns by both teams over 6.5