Ten Road Favorite in NFL Week 1 Set Stage For Upsets

We’re back for more NFL coverage and picks for the 2022 season following a sensational 70% season picking only underdogs last year and going 28-12 ATS. That runs the 5-year record posting only NFL underdog picks to 130-91 (58.8%). Past history over an 8-year span of documents NFL picks on nearly 650 plays (favorites, underdogs, totals) also shows better than 57% ATS winners documented by an independent company for professional handicappers.

None of that matters to bettors following along as a new season begins. We’ll kick it off with a chip-in on the Thursday night opener between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams (+2.5). I chip-in a preview for TheLines, and add other coverage and picks at Offshore Gaming Association, Forbes and other outlets.

I’ll add links here to reference along with some sports betting data from leading U.S. online sportsbooks, where the betting favorites will again prove to be the more popular bets. But as we’ll point out and add in our weekly underdog picks, the underdogs will be the sides we’ll support more often starting in Week 1 with a record 10 home underdogs to kick off the 2022 NFL season!

Buffalo at Los Angeles

  • Home teams are 16-3 in the Thursday night season openers (11-4-4 ATS). Playbook newsletter and database also notes defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs during the first six games of the season since 1980.  See my added analysis at OSGA and Week 1 underdog picks.

I bet the Rams and actually like ‘over’ 51.5 more. I’ll add links to my weekly underdog picks at OSGA as posted and you can follow along and check out the added insight and analysis along the way.


I provided a NFL Week 1 preview back in August noting the record 10 road favorites along with this Week 1 angle.

Divisional home underdogs are 16-6-1 SU and 19-4 ATS in Week 1 since 2009.

  • New Orleans at Atlanta (+5.5)
  • Green Bay at Minnesota (+2)

There are three other division games in Week 1.

  • Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-6.5)
  • New England at Miami (-3.5)
  • Las Vegas at LA Chargers (-3.5)

Check back for more updates and NFL coverage.

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay