Previewing And Betting The 2019 Kentucky Derby

The 2019 Kentucky Derby Is Wide Open – and Wet

Get ready for another rainy day and wet race track at Churchill Downs for the 2019 Kentucky Derby. The 145th running is gaining stream like the betting interest and players that will be pounding in their wagers at the windows and on mobile devices looking to cash in on America’s biggest horse race and event.

I provided Kentucky Derby previews, picks and analysis at Forbes along with coverage at TheLines with added picks and previews at PlayPicks.

News broke Friday morning that Haikal has scratched due to an abscess in his left front hoof, joining pre-race favorite Omaha Beach (throat), who scratched earlier this week with entrapped epiglottis.  Here were the adjusted odds prior to Haikal being scratched, and a jockey change has also been added with Mike Smith taking over aboard Cutting Humor.

Analysis of one of the 3 value bets provided in my Kentucky Derby betting article at Forbes.

#8 Tacitus (8-1)

The Wood Memorial winner trained by Bill Mott has a solid shot to challenge and win with his tactical speed sitting off the leaders. Tacitus is ridden by Jose Ortiz, who provides insight on the Kentucky Derby in an interview with TVG, and adds some thoughts on riding on an off track below. Tacitus won the Wood despite getting into severe traffic problems multiple times early in the race. He recovered and continued on with a lot of energy to win while posting strong speed figures and showing interest in more distance. Form cycle analysis indicates he’ll move forward again with strong breeding elevated on the stamina side. Tacitus is a big strong colt that has been working well and can definitely win the Derby providing great value. He should be included in exotic wagers with a top-three finish.

TVG: Does weather play a part in how the race unfolds? Is it much more difficult to ride in the rain and slop?

Jose Ortiz: Weather plays a big part. Not all horses handle the sloppy track the same as a fast track. If you are coming from behind it makes it more difficult to navigate with all of the kick back from so many horses. You have to have more goggles and will be changing them a lot.

2019 Kentucky Derby Odds

No. 1: War of Will (20-1)
No. 2: Tax (20-1)
No. 3: By My Standards (20-1)
No. 4: Gray Magician (50-1)
No. 5: Improbable (5-1)
No. 6: Vekoma (20-1)
No. 7: Maximum Security (6-1)
No. 8: Tacitus (8-1)
No. 9: Plus Que Parfait (50-1)
No. 10: Cutting Humor (20-1)
No. 11: Haikal (30-1)
No. 12: Omaha Beach (4-1)
No. 13: Code of Honor (10-1)
No. 14: Win Win Win (14-1)
No. 15: Master Fencer (60-1)
No. 16: Game Winner (4-1)
No. 17: Roadster (9-2)
No. 18: Long Range Toddy (30-1)
No. 19: Spinoff (30-1)
No. 20: Country House (30-1)
No. 21: Bodexpress (40-1)

 

Author: FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful handicappers and professionals. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay