Player Profiles And Odds To Win The 2020 TOUR Championship And FedExCup
Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm have a head start this week in the TOUR Championship. The top 30 players in the FedExCup Standings play for huge money this week with NO CUT and the event concluding Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 7.
My initial TOUR Championship preview has the odds and format. As you watch and wager this weekend know there are odds to win both the TOUR Championship with the modified and staggard strokes-based scoring system (FedEx Starting Stokes) along with the winner of the 72-hole event.
Circa Sports in Las Vegas also allows you to bet yes/no on whether a player will win the FedExCup.
I’ve chipped in player profiles below of the top 10 players that will start with a strokes advantage. First place is worth $15 million with the runner-up $5 million and third place $4 million, and each player is guaranteed $395,000.
It’s not the best week to be betting outright winners, but there are opportuntieis in tournament and round-by-round match-ups along with in-play betting with scores changing each hole as the drama builds towards and during the final round at East Lake Golf Club on Monday.
My added TOUR Championship coverage at TheLines includes a breakdown of where the bets and money are landing from leading sportsbooks like BetMGM, FanDuel, DraftKings and William Hill.
Dustin Johnson starts at 10-under par and is taking more than 34% of the money and 14% of the bets to win the FedExCup at BetMGM. Jon Rahm starts at 8-under par and has more than 18% of the handle and greater than 8% of the bets. Wagers and volumn vary with the top bookmakers taking more bets with more customers. William Hill has a differenct breakdown of players taking the most bets and money with neither Johnson or Rahm at the top with lower odds.
The 2019-20 PGA Tour season concludes this week, as one golfer will become the FedEx Cup champion. ⛳️🏆
"Once people start betting it, they realize it’s one of the best sports to watch on TV." – Nick Bogdanovich
👀 the latest odds and trends ⬇️
— William Hill US (@WilliamHillUS) September 2, 2020
WHO HAS THE ADVANTAGE?
Here are the top players that will start with a FedEx Starting Strokes advantage. Included are some stats, past performance at East Lake, along with insight and information you can bet on to guide you towards more bets and winners this week at the Tour Championship.
Dustin Johnson: Starting Strokes (-10). Johnson’s most recent form is best in the field, which has allowed him to earn the No. 1 spot in Starting Strokes for the Tour Championship. Dustin won the Northern Trust opening FedExCup Playoff event and finished runner-up in both the PGA Championship and last week’s BWM Championship. Over the course of those three events and 12 rounds, Johnson ranked No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Total, Tee-to-Green, Ball Striking, Approach and Putting. Very impressive. But DJ shot 13-over par last year at East Lake for his worst performance on the course. His four previous tournament scores were -7, -2, -5 and -4 with three top-10 finishes.
Jon Rahm: Starting Strokes (-8). Rahm’s dramatic sudden death win last week over Johnson in the BMW Championship allowed him leapfrog one spot ahead of Thomas and gain an extra stroke in the push towards a Tour Championship victory and $15 million top prize. Rahm’s three appearances in the Tour Championship the last three years have produced scores of Even Par, -4 and -7 in 2017 when he finished tied for 7th place. His best Strokes Gained stats rankings at East Lake over the last 12 rounds are SG: Approach (3rd), Ball Striking (4th) and Tee-to-Green (5th). In his three most recent events, Rahm ranks No. 2 in SG: Total, Tee-to-Green and Ball Striking, and No. 1 in SG: Off-the-Tee.
Justin Thomas: Starting Strokes (-7). Since winning last month at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, Thomas has struggled a bit with his game while finishing outside the top-20 in three straight most meaningful events. However, his results at East Lake have been superb with four-straight top-7 finishes with a best runner-up finish in 2017 when shooting 11-under par. Thomas’ best Strokes Gained stats at East Lake his last 12 rounds are SG: Around the Green (2nd), SG: Off-the-Tee (3rd) and SG: Tee-to-Green (3rd).
Webb Simpson: Starting Strokes (-6). Webb skipped last week’s BMW Championship and is hoping the rest will pay off in Atlanta. Simpson has three top-five finishes at East Lake, but only one in the past three years when he tied for fourth in 2018 at 6-under par. His power and off-the-tee game is lacking. Simpson’s Strokes Gained stats over his last 12 rounds at East Lake do not suggest he’ll make up enough ground to win. His best are SG: Putting (4th), SG: Short Game (6th) and SG: Approach (7th).
Collin Morikawa: Starting Strokes (-5). Morikawa plays in his first Tour Championship this week. At the age of 23, Morikawa has three Tour wins including the PGA Championship last month and the Workday Charity Open in July. He was runner-up in a sudden death playoff at Colonial in the opening event following the shutdown caused by the health crisis and pandemic. Morikaw’s ball striking and short game have been superb, but his strokes gained stats in driving and off the tee have fallen off in his last three events – ranking outside the top-10 in his last 12 rounds overall. Morikawa did shoot 68-68 last weekend to finish T20 at the BMW Championship.
Daniel Berger: Starting Strokes (-4). Berger has not competed at East Lake the last two years, and the three years prior his best finish was tied for 15th place. In his last 12 rounds on the PGA Tour, Berger’s best stats are SG: Total (4th) and SG: Off-the-Tee (3rd).
Harris English: Starting Strokes (-4). English has competed once at East Lake and finished T22 in 2015. He shot up the FedExCup Standings with a runner-up finish in the Northern Trust. In his last 12 rounds on Tour, English ranks No. 1 in SG: Around the Green, No. 5 in SG: Short Game but outside the top-10 in driving and off-the tee stats.
Bryson DeChambeau: Starting Strokes (-4). Bryson the bomber has had two appearances at East Lake. He finished T12 last year at 4-under par and 19th in 2018. Over his last 12 rounds on the PGA Tour, DeChambeau is No. 2 in SG: Off-the-Tee and Putting. However, he’s really struggled in those last three tournaments in SG: Approach, Tee-to-Green and Around the Green, ranking outside the top-25 in each category.
Sungjae Im: Starting Strokes (-4). Sungjae Im finished T19 at 1-over par in his Tour Championship debut last year. In his last 12 rounds, he has no strokes gained stats that rank in the top-10, and overall his SG: Total ranks No. 28 in his last 12 rounds covering four events since the PGA Championship.
Hideki Matsuyama: Starting Strokes (-4). Hideki enters off a third place finish in the BMW Championship and was tied for the lead into Sunday playing alongside Dustin Johnson. Matsuyama’s tee-to-green game is elite, but putting problems have continued to hinder his hopes for more wins and high finishes. Matsuyama ranks 178th in SG: Putting this season, and in his last 12 rounds at East Lake, Matsuyama ranks dead last of the players returning this week. However, Hideki is No. 1 in SG: Approach at East Lake over his last 12 rounds and he finished top-10 each of the last two years.
We conclued the TOUR Championship with no tournament match-ups as some sportsbooks are not offering or others have the FedEx Starting Strokes included and odds not favorable to match-ups of interest. Tried to find match-up to play agaisnt a few players including Webb Simpson, and we’ll post or tweet anything of interest in Round-by-Round matches as available. Since the PGA Tour restart in June, we’ve posted a 9-4 record on these pages for full touranment match-ups.