Phoenix Open Odds: Betting Favorites And Golfers To Watch
In my betting tips at TPC Scottsdale update for the Phoenix Open, I provide course information, golfers odds and information you can bet on. That includes looking beyond the top of the market players and adding some longshots.
I’ve also added more Tee-to-Green betting coverage for the Phoenix Open at TheLines.
No surprise many bettors are counting on the favorites again in Phoenix, as Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Jon Rahm (+600) are taking a higher percentage of outright win bets, and both at lower odds below
I correspond as a media member with sportsbook operators, directors and publicity managers for leading online sportsbooks. Here is some of the betting data leading into the event.
Phoenix Open Most Bet and Top of the Market Players
The top of the market golfers generate much betting interest each week on the PGA Tour. Yet those players at lower odds below Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy offer no value and are more risk than reward.
“The public has spread their action across many of the top golfers.” – Jason Scott, VP Trading, BetMGM.
BetMGM is high on McIlroy (+1200), and he’s the leader in handle with nearly 10% of the money bet to win. Just behind are Xander Schauffele (+1200) and Justin Thomas (+800).
The highest ticket counts or bets were also on those three golfers, which combined for nearly 18% of the outright win bets.
GOLFERS TO WATCH
While the golfers at the top of the odds board and power rankings take most bets to win, you can still find value and take a shot on other players while adding top finishing position bets. Last week we had some added notes in the ‘Golfers to Watch’ section on Patrick Reed (+2900), who went on to win the Farmers Insurance Open.
Other Golfers to Watch that had a payday in top finishing position included Sam Burns (T18) and Adam Scott (T20). Burns was also a top match-up play, which cashed before the weekend and added to the two tournament match-up winners the previous week at The American Express. For good measure, we chipped in a pair of round-by-round winners in two tweets sent out for Round 2 and Round 3 for the Farmers Insurance Open.
So there are ways to cash in with top finishing position and still get some good prices on mid-tier players and others at big longshot odds.
Here are some other Golfers to Watch at the Phoenix Open and players to consider in your ‘Fairway Foursome’ for outright win bets and/or top finishing position at TPC Scottsdale. Bettors may gain added information you can bet on for select tournament match-ups.
Sungjae Im (+3400 DraftKings): Sunjae Im was on his way to a top 10 finish last week until a 6-over 42 back nine blowup on Sunday dropped him to T32. Im’s putting is much better on Bermudagrass, and he ranks top 20 in this field on the surface. He’s also top 10 in this field in Strokes Gained: Total over his last 36 rounds and his ball striking remains strong along with his top 10 ranking in Off the Tee. Im finishing T7 here on debut in 2019, so he connected to the course and conditions. Thought his odds would be closer to +2000, and at this price he makes the Golfers to Watch list.
Rickie Fowler (+5000 DraftKings): The 2019 Phoenix Open winner has a strong profile on this course with two other top 5 finishes since 2016 and a T11. He’s +400 to finish top 10 this year. Fowler’s game fell way off last year, as his driver deserted him too often. He’s hit that club much better in his two recent tournaments, and his Approach play is coming around. We know he’s always been a solid putter, and Fowler’s preference for bermuda greens has shown here with six straight appearances of positive gains in strokes gained putting. Fowler was +1600 to win at Phoenix in 2020, and these odds are hardly reflect his course form and improving current play with his Strokes Gained: Total ranking No. 11 in this field over his last 36 rounds.
Max Homa (+7000 DraftKings): Max does not drive the ball accurately, but this desert course is more to his liking having finished T6 at 13-under last year following an over-par opening round. He’s a Scottsdale resident, and that was Homa’s second time in the event. He was playing better entering last year’s event with some strong GIR stats, but Homa has finished T18 and T21 the last two weeks in his opening two events of 2021. Homa is +550 to finish top 10 and +225 for top 20, and his best strokes gained stats over his last 36 rounds are SG: Ball Striking, Approach and Off the Tee.
Martin Laird (+17500 DraftKings): The further you scroll down the list of players, the bigger discrepancy in odds. FanDuel has Laird at +10000, while DraftKings is letting Laird go at +175000. That’s a huge overlay, as the 38-year-old Scottish golfer resides in Scottdale, and he ranks top 10 on Tour this season in driving accuracy and Greens in Regulation. Laird had three top 10 finishes in this event starting in 2015, and he was top 10 into the final round in 2019 before falling down the standings. Laird has played his best in the desert, and he hit the jackpot in Vegas last October with a victory. Prefer to see better current form as his strokes gained stats since his win are not noteworthy. Laird did, however, finish T17 in the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January to start the New Year.
Added chip-ins and notes: Russell Henley gets the mention as a Mulligan this week. He made the Golfers to Watch list at the Sony Open and finished T11. Now he’s more than twice those odds at +7500 and is coming off a well-needed week of rest. Henley has finished top 20 in two of the last four years at this event, but more importantly, he’s been striking the ball among the best on Tour going back many months. Henley’s driving accuracy is top-tier, as is his ability to hit greens and score, as he ranks top 10 in all three this season. Henley’s model profile for this event puts him at the top for Par 4 scoring and bogey avoidance.