NFL Week 1 Betting Breakdown and Circa Contest Update

A brief NFL Week 1 game day update and betting breakdown as bets continue to come in for Sunday Week 1 kickoffs. I provided an update at Forbes with a betting breakdown on games including the nine division contests openining weekend.

  • Miami at New England (-7)
  • Cleveland at Baltimore (-7.5)
  • New York Jets at Buffalo (-7)
  • Philadelphia (-5.5) at Washington
  • Chicago at Detroit (-2.5)
  • Indianapolis (-8) at Jacksonville
  • Green Bay at Minnesota (-2.5)
  • Arizona at San Francisco (-6.5)
  • Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3.5)

Plenty of ATS trends are floated out to the media and public from newsletters, touts and tipsheets offering a betting breakdown. Most of the trend talk and information is meaningless, but if you can find some that make sense or a system that can work and be supported with data and fundamental match-ups or situations, then incorporate it into your handicapping. But betting a trend blindly is just ridiculous.

The SuperContest at the Westgate and Circa Sports Contest  in Las Vegas will drive interest, and I’m participating in the Circa Contest this year. A majority of the contestants in those NFL contests have little chance of making the money or getting a payoff. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be fun and entertaining. Many recreational bettors take a shot and the ‘consensus’ picks you’ll see posted in social media and other platforms are another talking point. The new quarterly payouts offer contestants another change to cash in even if they are out of the race to win or make the top 50 by midseason. There are 3,148 entries in the Circa Contest this year.

I’d like to think I have a better chance as I’ve had back-to-back 60% seasons previously in the SuperContest and even started one year 16-3-1 ATS – which would be good enough to cash in a top-3 spot and payoff in the Circa Contest quarterly payouts. Those top-3 spots each quarter will pay out $25,000, $75,000 and $187,000.

I’m posting NFL underdog picks and analysis again this season as well looking to continue a pretty solid 3-year run of 77-54 ATS (58.5%).

In the Circa Contest, the seven most selected teams to cover the static point spread in Week 1 are: Rams, Titans, Bills, Cardinals, Browns, Steelers and Falcons. With more than 3,100 entries and a top prize of $1 million to the winner, bettors will be following their Week 1 picks and bets closely.

You can bet on it.

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay
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