NFL Inside the Numbers Week 4

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Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 4

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 4 had the Patriots and Titans on their bye week. Betting favorites went 11-4 SU and 6-8-1 ATS and totals went 6-9 over/under with the lowest scoring week of the season averaging 42.6 points per game. Silly trends should usually be avoided noting that last year in 2014 saw week 4 as the highest scoring week of the season. We had another great week as Members enjoyed a 3-1-1 Sunday with a late addition loser on the Bears/Raiders ‘over’ 44 that was 16-14 at halftime. We released just two side plays to members and went 2-0 with the Jets and Vikings delivering the green. Those that bet the best number and on game day won with ‘under’ 43.5 or 44 on the Broncos/Vikings, which we released at 43 for a push.

Here are some Week 4 stats of note.

Tough break for Cowboys (+3) bettors after they scored a late TD to tie the game only to have the Saints miss a chip-shot 30 yard field goal in the closing seconds and then win 26-20 with a long 80-yard touchdown in overtime. The Steelers (+3) managed to do the same missing a pair of field goals leading by 3 to ice the cover before poor play calling & management cost them in overtime as the Ravens pick up their first win of the season 23-20 last Thursday. Both the Ravens and Steelers had big rushing days with 191 and 167 yards, but poor total yards per play at 4.6 and 4.2. Some additional eye-catching stats showed the Dolphins 0-for-12 on third down and the Jets with 15 penalties for 163 yards in their beat down of the floundering fish, 27-14. The Bills had 17 penalties for 135 yards in a 24-10 home loss to the NY Giants. The Cardinals suffered their first loss despite 447 yards offense and 6.3 yards per play while controlling the ball for 33 minutes. Losing is what happens when you turn the ball over three times and your opponent does not as the Rams hold on to win 22-20. The 49ers had just 8 first downs and for the second-straight week San Francisco failed to reach 200 yards on offense.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  Three more teams suffered turnover troubles in Week 4 as the Texans (4-0), Bucs (5-1) and Cardinals (3-0) all suffered negative turnover margins of 3 or more in SU/ATS losses. Teams in this negative turnover situation are now 1-12 SU/ and 0-13 ATS this season and just one team last season won the game with a negative 3-or-greater turnover differential.  Dallas won the game but did not cover in week 1 this season despite a 3-0 turnover disadvantage.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent ( at least 30 yards ) went 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in week 4, as the Jaguars somehow failed to win despite the rushing, total yards and even +2 turnover advantage. The Jags covered even the sharply adjusted number of +4 once Colts QB Andrew Luck was declared officially out, and Indy won 16-13. For the season, this rushing guideline and situation is 34-10 ATS (77%). We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners.  Clearly it’s not an easy forecast and when a team falls behind by margin like the Jets in week 3, they often have to abandon the running game (16 rushes NYJ) . Yet New York got back to their strength and ground game in London in week 4 and pounded the Dolphins wiht a 207-59 rushing advantage in a easy 27-14 win and cover. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average. Pay attention to offensive line play and key injuries along the line as those can greatly affect the teams rushing attack and game plan.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 4 big ground gainers in rushing included the NY Jets (207 rush yards/43 attempts), Ravens (191/39), Steelers (167/33), Rams (164/26), Packers (162/233, Broncos (144/24), Jaguars (142/28), Falcons (135/35) and Redskins (127/32).  Follow rushing attempts stats and look for teams and match-ups where you anticipate them running the ball at least 30 times in a game, as that is another key indicator to point spread and winning success.

The Lions (53/18 & 28/19 in week 3), Texans (54/17), Dolphins (59/11) and Bills (55/24) all struggled to get their running game going in defeat and so too did the Colts (68/24) in victory.

But the point of all this is that rushing stats and point of attack play often trumps passing prowess a majority of the time. When you have a few top-tier quarterbacks that can overcome a poor ground game or use it as a short passing attack (Manning), sometimes a lack of a running game can work out. A dominant defense helps. But regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL. We have the adjust to the rules and changes in the game allowing for more passing game success and now more scoring in recent seasons, but the game is still about blocking, tackling, running and catching and the team that controls the line of scrimmage, establishes a running game (or more attempts) and minimizes turnovers is often the team that comes out on top.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 4 victories were the Bengals (445 yards/8.97 yards per play ), Chargers (438/7.2), NY Jets (425/5.9), Falcons (378/5.9), Broncos (344/6.5), Rams (328/6.4) and Saints (438/6.3), who were an average 5.3 yards per play before the 80 yard touchdown in overtime. The Redskins (417)and Packers (362) both won and covered, but were average efficiency at 5.4 yards per play.  Inefficient offensive teams included the 49ers (196/3.9 & 156/3.1 in week 3 – ouch), Dolphins (226/3.9), Raiders (243/4.3), Steelers (263/4.2) and Lions (256/5.80. The Panthers (244/4.3) beat the turnover prone Bucs & QB Winston despite a poor offensive showing. The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.