NFL Inside The Numbers Week 8

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 8

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.  Each week we analyze the information and try to position our plays for success based on match-up advantages.  The running game and/or ability to stop the run is another way to isolate NFL point spread winners.

Here are some Week 8 stats of note.

Week 8 NFL favorites went 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS and are now 80-40 SU and 59-62 ATS this season.  Totals went  7-8 O/U and there were 740 points scored in 15 games for a weekly scoring average of  49 PPG.  I graded the Cardinals as favorite before money moved and made the Eagles the favorite at post.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success.  Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  This season, teams that are +3 or greater in the turnover column in a game are 25-0 SU and 24-1 ATS as the NY Jets ( 6-0 ) and Raiders ( 3-0 ) suffered turnover troubles in Week 8.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 6-5 ATS in Week 8 and are now 64-23 ( 74% this season – right at the historical average ). We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, QB play, weather and more.   As the season progresses with more data to digest, our handicapping and match-up analysis usually becomes stronger as we project more point spread winners.

Week 8 big ground gainers in rushing included the Texans ( 212 rush yards/ 40 carries ), Saints ( 193/31  ), Jaguars ( 176/30 ), NY Jets ( 175/33 – 6 turnovers! ), Cowboys ( 166/25 ), Dolphins ( 148/24 ), Chiefs ( 143/34 ) and Broncos ( 139/30 ).  Note these teams went 5-3 ATS and most ran the ball at least 30 times – another key indicator to success.  The Jets of course had 6 turnovers, and you’ll never overcome that regardless of the statistical dominance.

The Titans ( 36/13 ), Browns ( 39/25 ), Chargers ( 61/15 ), Lions ( 61/23 ), Colts ( 63/10 ) and Buccaneers ( 66/23 ) all struggled to get their running game going and it’s important to pay attention to offensive line and defensive injuries that effect weekly match-ups and personnel losses.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in Week 8 victories were the Steelers ( 639 yards/7.9 yards per play – wow! ), Saints ( 495/7.8 ), Patriots ( 487/6.9 ), Broncos ( 425/6.5 ) and Redskins ( 409/6.4 ).  The Eagles ( 521/5.9 ), Packers ( 491/7.8 ) and Colts ( 448/7.9 ) were very efficient in defeat.  Inefficient offensive teams included the Rams ( 200/3.9 ),  Bucs ( 225/4.0 ) and Panthers ( 266/4.8 ).   The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

Early Week 9 rushing projections with margin parameters appear to favor the Saints over Panthers, Dolphins over Chargers, Cowboys over Cardinals, 49ers over Rams, Broncos over Patriots and Seahawks over Raiders.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay