NFL Inside the Numbers Week 13
Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 13 by @FairwayJay
Last week we had a huge week in our point spread prognosis Fairway forecasts as clients were rewarded with a 9-3-1 week on all our rated plays, opinions and teasers. That included a Top Play teaser on the Lions and Panthers, who both out-rushed their opponent in dominating fashion as we projected. In fact, the Lions delivered our Thanksgiving feast and Top Play Big Bertha winner as they pounded the Packers 40-10. The past 2 weeks our NFL Top Plays are 6-2. As we discussed last week and review again this week, weather is playing a part and having an impact on not only the outcomes and scoring, but also how teams run their offense and call the plays. Last week a season-high 15 teams ran the ball at least 30 times, and you’ll want to watch the weather and check the forecasts again this week as the East Coast is scheduled to have precipitation and colder temperatures in many NFL locations in week 14.
Be sure to listen to my NFL Betting Podcast Week 14 for more insight into this week’s games, weather and projected advantages at the point of attack as we continue to evaluate the Fairway fundamentals that consistently produce point spread profits in the NFL.
Defensive dominators – SF vs Seattle highlights Week 14 card
Each week during the NFL season I read the game recaps and load relevant stats into my proprietary data base. I use many of the stats and rushing numbers to assist me in sports investing and write my weekly NFL Inside the Numbers column to assist you in your pursuit of profit. A review of relevant stats and how to incorporate them into your weekly analysis of games is provided in this weeks NFL Inside the Numbers Week 13 article and I also discuss and incorporate these stats and situations into the weekly evaluation of match-ups and share them with you in my weekly NFL Podcast where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday games.
Betting and beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. But even when you handicap the games correctly and they even play out statistically as planned, you’re wagers can go up in smoke due to bad calls, unforeseen injuries, dropped balls and of course Turnovers, as TO’s will always have an impact on NFL games and especially against the spread (ATS). Last week we lost a tough game on the Buffalo Bills, as Atlanta scored a late TD and then won in overtime. The Bills also had two late costly turnovers. Following the game, the Bills had legitimate concerns with a key interference call that impacted the outcome late. The Titans (4-1) were on the wrong side of the turnover battle and it cost them dearly despite out-gaining division rival Colts at Indianapolis. Tennessee had a 367 to 264 yard advantage and out-rushed the Colts 164 to 104 while running the ball 36 times. Many other stat advantage for the Titans in that game, but you can see the impact of turnovers in the results, both SU and ATS as the Colts pushed in a late TD to cover in a 22-14 win. The Cardinals had a rare cover/win despite a 3-0 turnover disadvantage. That game moved from 3 to 3.5 for the Eagles as favorite on game day as Arizona RB Ellington was ruled out. We released the Eagles at -3 on Friday, and unfortunately if you watched the end of that game, it was a tough push as the Eagles were set to kick the late FG and win by 6 points but a defensive penalty on the Cardinals coast Eagles betting backers. Teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are now 29-2 SU and 28-2-1 ATS this season. Teams that are exactly +2 in the turnover column in a game are 37-9 ATS this season including 26-2 ATS the past six weeks.
Vikings RB Adrian Peterson surpassed 10,000 career rushing yards in week 13
Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent went6-4 ATS in week 13 following two sub-par weeks. For the season, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are 82-44 (65%) YTD. Teams that had strong offensive showings in total net yards and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 13 were: Lions (561/7.1), Bronco (535/8.1), Vikings (496/5.8 in OT), Patriots (453/6.6), Dolphins (453/5.7), Seahawks (429/6.2) and Panthers (426/6.8), Week 13 big ground gainers in rushing that won included the Lions (241 rush yds/ 43 attempts), Vikings (246/40 following last weeks 232/43), Panthers (163/34) and Bengals (164/38). The Bills suffered defeat despite 195 rushing yards on 31 carries as C.J. Spiller returned to the lineup healthier and rushed for 149 yards.
The Packers (24 rush yds/15 attempts) , Saints (44/15), Raiders (50/25) and Bucs (66/20 ), struggled to get their ground game going in defeat. Tampa Bay has just 88 yards rushing the past two weeks. While the game flow, situations and score can impact a team’s game plan and use of the running game, it’s proven over and over, season after season that teams who fail to commit to the running game or lack consistency in the ability to run the ball and control the ball, clock and chains are more often on the losing side of the ledger, both SU and ATS.
Here are the ATS records of teams that fail to run the ball more than 20 times in a game and those teams than run the ball at least 30 times in a game. Yards per rush is not as important as controlling the ball, clock and chains. Having a quality or top-tier QB helps, but review these running stats again and use them in your handicapping to see if you can determine which teams will have success running the ball and/or stopping the run each week and which teams will commit to controlling and running the ball. Research injuries and their impact on both the running game/stopping run and potential match-up edges in the passing game.
Through week 13 games, teams that run the ball 20 times or less in a game are a combined 13-69 ATS this season. Conversely, teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game are 87-25 ATS this season (not including games where both teams run the ball 30+ times).
Here is some segment stats and handicapping for your review as you evaluate the upcoming match-ups in week 14 and try to determine which teams will have the edge at the point of attack and in rushing the ball and/or stopping the run. Over the past 3 games, teams with the worst ground games and lowest average rushing per game are: Steelers (65/game), Cardinals (74). Saints (79), 49ers (80), Browns (84), Jaguars (87) and Bucs (91).
The strongest ground games the past 3 games and teams with the highest average rushing per game are: Vikings (203/game), Broncos (172), Rams (170) and Lions (150) – all four teams at least 35 rushing ypg higher than their season average. For more rushing stats including attempts per game, yards per game, yards per rush and more, click here.
We’ll review more NFL Inside the Numbers stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Listen to my NFL Podcast posted early each week on Tuesday’s for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.
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@FairwayJay
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