NFL Inside the Numbers Week 12
Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 12 by @FairwayJay
This week we dig a little deeper into the stats and look into why some of our rushing stats haven’t delivered the profits as expected the past two weeks. For the season, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are covering the point spread 65% of the time. While that’s strong and something we can shoot for when handicapping point of attack play correctly and having it play out accordingly, those numbers and success rate in the rushing game are down from the over decade-long average of 75%. And in no season dating back to 2000 has this percentage ever been below 70%. I expect the strong rushing games to have success through the final 5 weeks of the season as the weather turns colder and teams run the ball a little more than league average thus far.
Lions vs Packers – Thanksgiving Day Special
With that in mind, be sure to listen to my NFL Week 13 Podcast as I discuss every game on the board for Thursday Thanksgiving Day and the entire Sunday card. There are some definite match-ups and contests where we can proficiently project a strong running game advantage for teams this week.
Each week during the NFL season I read the game recaps and load relevant stats into my proprietary data base. I use many of the stats and rushing numbers to assist me in sports investing and write my weekly NFL Inside the Numbers column to assist you in your pursuit of profit. A review of relevant stats and how to incorporate them into your weekly analysis of games is provide in this weeks NFL Inside the Numbers Week 12 article and I also discuss and incorporate these stats and situations into the weekly evaluation of match-ups and share them with you in my weekly NFL Podcast where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday games.
This week my NFL Inside the Numbers Week 12 takes a look at some strong rushing attacks that once again surprisingly did not fare too well. The Denver Broncos blew a 24-0 halftime lead at New England and lost in overtime 34-31. That’s almost unthinkable when you consider the Broncos are the leagues best team with the NFL’s #1 offense averaging 40 PPG and 451 YPG. Now consider that Denver rushed for 280 yards against the Patriots, and lost! We’ve had some ridiculous bad losses this year, and this one by Denver gets put behind us as another positive percentage play with huge rushing numbers that lost.
Despite some tough losses in Week 12, we still produced profit and a winning week on high volume while also going 4-1 on our Top Plays that included right side winners on the Rams, 49ers, Titans and Panthers/Dolphins under the total. Now let’s go Inside the Numbers and look at the ATS results and some of the rushing numbers as we utilize these stats and situations moving forward for more point spread prognosis winners and favorable Fairway Forecasts.
Broncos vs Chiefs rematch week 13
Betting and beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. But even when you handicap the games correctly and they even play out statistically as planned, you’re wagers can go up in smoke due to bad calls, unforeseen injuries, dropped balls and of course Turnovers, as TO’s will always have an impact on NFL games and especially against the spread (ATS). The Lions (5-0), Browns (4-0) and Bears (3-0) were on the wrong side of the turnover column in week 12 in SU/ATS losses. Teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are now 27-2 SU and 27-2 ATS this season. Teams that are exactly +2 in the turnover column in a game are 35-9 ATS this season including 24-2 ATS the past five weeks.
The Bucs (24 rush yds/22 attempts – won!!) , Dolphins (52/17), Browns (55/16) and Texans (77/21 ), struggled to get their ground game going. While the game flow, situations and score can impact a team’s game plan and use of the running game, it’s proven over and over, season after season that teams who fail to commit to the running game or lack consistency in the ability to run the ball and control the ball, clock and chains are more often on the losing side of the ledger, both SU and ATS.
Here are the ATS records of teams that fail to run the ball more than 20 times in a game and those teams than run the ball at least 30 times in a game. Yards per rush is not as important as controlling the ball, clock and chains. Having a quality or top-tier QB helps, but review these running stats again and use them in your handicapping to see if you can determine which teams will have success running the ball and/or stopping the run each week and which teams will commit to controlling and running the ball. Research injuries and their impact on both the running game/stopping run and potential match-up edges in the passing game.
Through week 12 games, teams that run the ball 20 times or less in a game are a combined 12-66 ATS this season. Conversely, teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game are 79-21 ATS this season (not including games where both teams run the ball 30+ times).
We’ll review more NFL Inside the Numbers stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Listen to my NFL Podcast posted early each week on Tuesday’s for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.
Stay on Course…
@FairwayJay
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