NFL Inside the Numbers – Week 1 by @FairwayJay

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – Inside the Numbers

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Each week you can listen to my NFL Podcast where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday games.

Here are some Week 1 stats of note.

Week 1 NFL favorites went 12-4 straight-up (SU) and 7-8-1 against the spread (ATS).  We kicked off the NFL season with a ‘over’ the total winner in the Thursday night Broncos win over the Ravens, 49-27. Totals were 8-8 (over/under) in Week 1. Sunday saw some surprising results to many, as the ugliest ‘Dogs on the board (Bills, Titans, Raiders) all covered with the Titans winning outright. Close calls are often the name of the game in the NFL with many contests decided in the later stages of the fourth quarter.  Week 1 didn’t disappoint in that regard, as the Bills and Raiders suffered close SU losses, while we suffered with underdogs Panthers and Falcons as they blew chances to not only win their games late, but failed to get the money. We went 2-0 on NFL totals and also had Dallas as a top-play winner Sunday night.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  The Giants were the lone team to suffer such a deficit (6-1) in the turnover column in Week 1 and you saw the result, a 36-31 loss at Dallas.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 6-2 ATS in Week 1. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 1 big ground gainers in rushing included the dynamic new Eagles offense (263 rush yards/49 carries! At 5.4 ypr). Surprisingly, there were no other teams that had a dominant run game in victory. The Raiders (171/5.2) lost late despite out-gaining the Colts 372-274, but a 2-0 turnover deficit cost them in defeat.

The Dolphins (20 rush yards), Steelers (32), Giants (50), Ravens (58), Bengals (63), Packers (63) and Bucs (65) all struggled to get their running game going with 23 or less rushing attempts in defeat (except the Dolphins, very rare 20 rush yards in victory). All others lost SU/ATS (Bengals push).

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Broncos (510 yds/7.5 yppl), 49ers (494/6.4), Lions (469/6.1), Eagles (443/5.8) and Saints (419/6.3). Inefficient offensive teams included the Jaguars (178/2.5), Titans (229/3.6) and Bucs (250/4.2).

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Be sure to listen to my NFL Podcast each week for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay