NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 1

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 1

Throughout the NFL season, I go inside the numbers and review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.  Week 2 provides great opportunities as often there is an over-reaction to  Week 1 results and you may recall my record-breaking Week 2 from the 2009 season when me and my clients went a perfect 10-0 ATS on the ten plays I provided. I also had my best week 1 ever this past week in NFL point spread prognosis, while also providing my clients with a huge week of winners that included a 4-0 Top Play sweep.  Join me this week as we shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron and profit from my experience and well-rounded game.

Here are some Week 1 stats of note.

Week 1 NFL favorites went 10-6 SU and 5-10-1 ATS. Some close calls and line moves affected the spread results, along with some totals results. We were in with the Titans/Vikings ‘under’ 41.5 in Minnesota’s defensive duel and 2 defensive scores lifting the Vikings to a 24-16 win. The total closed 40 on game day. We also had the Broncos/Panthers game ‘under’ the total with another move downward, but picked up the win when the Panthers missed a long game-winning field goal in the closing seconds which impacted the total result. While we had some solid ‘Dog winners on the Bucs, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, Jaguars and Lions,

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation. The Titans (3-0) suffered a negative 3-turnover differential in Week 1 with two of them being returned for touchdowns by the Vikings.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 8-2 ATS in Week 1. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 1 big ground gainers in rushing included the Raiders (167 yards/26 attempts), 49ers (150/42), Chargers (155/32), Panthers (157/32) in their close loss to the Broncos (148/29), Steelers (147/30), Eagles (133/34) and Texans (129/35). Note all those teams ran the ball a higher percentage of plays, with many at least 30 times. I’ll discuss the importance of that statistic and use in handicapping in future articles.

Teams that struggled to get their ground game going included the Jaguars (48 rushing yards/26 attempts), Falcons (52/22), Redskins (55/12) and Bengals (57/19), along with the Titans (64/22) and Vikings (65/28) in their defensive duel which we projected. The Rams had a week-low 10 first downs with just 65 rushing yards. These teams went 1-4 ATS when not playing each other.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Raiders (486 yards/7.6 yppl), Lions (448/7.0), Steelers (435/6.4), Eagles (403/5.5), Bengals (381/6.8) and Buccaneers (371/6.1). ). In defeat, the Saints (507/7.8), Colts (450/6.6) and Redskins (384/7.0) put up yards with efficiency. But you also need to note how those yards were accumulated and if a team was playing from behind and against a prevent defense or softer coverage, as the offensive stats can become somewhat padded and skewed.

 Inefficient offensive teams included the Rams (185/3.1 and just 10 first downs), Bills (160/3.3 and 11 first downs), Ravens (208/4.7) in their defensive grinder against the Bills, Dolphins (214/4.0), Bears (258/4.8), Packers (294/4.9) and Browns (288/5.8 and just 21 minutes of possession).

The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

The Raiders overcame 14 penalties for 147 yards to get the last minute 35-34 shootout win on a 2-point conversion. The Rams embarrassment themselves on Monday Night Football with additional discipline issues of 10 penalties for 102 yards. The Bills continued their undisciplined play with 8 penalties for 89 yards, a signature of coach Rex Ryan teams. Buffalo led the league in penalties (9/game) and penalty yards (78/game) last season.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.