NBA Handicapping – Laying Road Chalk

Laying Road Chalk – Beating The Bookmaker And The Myth

No team is hotter than the Atlanta Hawks, who have moved up to #2 in the NBA power rankings thanks to a 14-1 SU/ATS run the past month and enter tonight’s road tilt at Boston on a 9-0 SU/ATS streak.  The red hot Hawks have been on our card often as Members have enjoyed the Hawks profit-producing run including our Top Play 20* Big Bertha plays on the Hawks this past week laying road chalk against the then equally hot Detroit Pistons and at home in the Hawks whipping of the Wizards 120-89. Atlanta covered on the road again last night as 10-point chalk at Philadelphia in a 105-87 victory.  That win extended Atlanta’s single-season franchise record to 9-straight road wins.  And the Hawks aren’t just beating up on the weaker teams.  Atlanta is on a 16-4 SU tear vs. .500 or greater teams and have won 9-straight games against the stronger Western conference teams.

Atlanta Hawks v Orlando MagicIt may not seem like the spot to lay the road chalk tonight at Boston with a rising line up to 7.5 points, but you’ll see a proven point-spread parameter below that may help the Hawks extend their streak at least one more game tonight.  Atlanta is clearly playing great basketball with solid shooting, team chemistry and a determined and dominating defense that is tied for the league lead in scoring defense ( 97 PPG ), top-5 in efficiency defense and holds opponents to a Eastern-conference best 43.8 FG%.  Atlanta also has the league’s best assist/turnover ratio.

Road games at Boston followed by tough back-to-back road games at Toronto and Chicago this weekend will make it most difficult for the Hawks to extend their winning streak.  Both the Raptors ( 25-12 ) and Bulls ( 26-13 ) are leading their divisions, as are the Hawks ( 30-8 ) by 4.0 games over Washington.

If you follow me on Twitter ( @FairwayJay ), you know I tweet out many sports and gaming-related items daily.  That includes the recent tweet indicating that NBA road favorites are proving quite profitable this season.  In fact, after last night’s 3-2 ATS night for road favorites in which a pair of teams Miami and San Antonio closed as road favorites after opening as underdogs, single-digit road favorites are now 97-61 ATS – nearly 62% winners!  While this strong profit-producing road chalk play is not likely to continue at such a high-rate, know that there are long-term proven profiles that you can add to your handicapping arsenal that may prove ‘technically’ profitable if you can add in solid match-ups and the right situation.  The Hawks play back-to-back tonight and again Saturday at Chicago, which will be their fourth road game in five nights and a very tough challenge.

However, here is a situation to follow if you want to increase your chances of winning on a road favorite.   A team that is clicking offensively having scored at least 105 PPG in 3-straight games ( like the Hawks tonight ) cover the point spread better than 59% of the time when installed as a road favorite next game ( sample size nearly 400 games ).  If our road favorite is a mid-range single-digit chalk laying up to 10-points, they cash at a greater than 65% rate.  The Hawks may fly again tonight, but don’t be surprised if they take a rest this weekend as their streak comes to a halt against a fellow bird of prey in Toronto against the Raptors and in a very bad situational spot Saturday at Chicago.

 

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay