Monday Night Football Handicapping Week 8

Monday Night Football Handicapping Week 8 – Seattle at St. Louis

Line: Seahawks -13.5  l  Total:  43.5

Back-to-back division road games for the Seahawks, who last played Thursday, October 17 and dominated the Cardinals in a 34-22 win.  The Seahawks are proving to be one of the top teams in the NFL, and in this Monday Night Football handicapping week 8 match-up, Seattle has some strong advantages. Seattle’s season stats profiles and adjusted numbers bear out their ranking among the top teams. The Seahawks are a strong, balanced team on both sides of the ball.  As I often discuss, they do things that are essential to winning consistently over time, and covering point spreads.  The Seahawks are near the top in running the football and stopping the run. That allows other phases of offense and defense to perform and be more productive.

The Rams have sub-par stats and their adjusted numbers are worse. St. Louis has the worst yards-per-play differential in the league; even worse than the Jaguars.  Rams QB Sam Bradford suffered a season-ending ACL injury in last weeks loss, and Kellen Clemons will make his 13th career start at quarterback. Tough opening assignment for him, as the Seahawks defense is the best in the NFC allowing just 282 ypg including a pass defense that ranks #1 in the NFC allowing 190 passing ypg.  The Seahawks hold opposing QBs to a NFC-low 66.1 QB rating and also lead the NFC in sacks with 24.  Slow the opponents running game?  No problem for the Seahawks, who allow an average of 91 rushing ypg including an average of 68 rushing ypg their last three games. Seattle allows an average of  just 1.4 points in the first quarter, so they shut down opponents early, force them to play from behind and dictate the style and type of game plan. Only Houston was able to shut down Seattle and force them to the air more playing from behind late, and the Seahawks defense delivered again in a stunning comeback win. St. Louis has no such defensive strength, and will try to control the ball on the ground and in short passing game.

Meanwhile, St. Louis is allowing a NFC-worst 126 rushing ypg.  Opponents run the ball at the Rams a NFC-high 47% of their plays at an average of 4.2 ypr. Rams coach Jeff Fisher prides himself on defense and aggressive, physical play. Expect the Rams to bring one of their best efforts of the season in this Monday Night Football handicapping week 8 game on national TV.  But the Rams are being run over and surprisingly six of their seven games have gone over the total as St. Louis allows an average of 26 points per game.  The Rams were 11-3 ATS as underdog last year, but just 1-4 ATS as ‘Dog this year.  While the odds are stacked against the Rams in this Monday Night Football handicapping week 8 game, know that the Rams fit a proven, profitable profile as a double-digit home underdog.  Since 2009, double-digit home underdogs are 18-2 ATS.  There has been one such situation this season in week 1 when the Bills (+10′) covered as home ‘Dog against the Patriots in a 23-21 win. And with a nearly 130 game sample over the past 25 years, double-digit home underdogs have covered the point spread at a 61% success rate.

Not in the Rams favor is the home crowd, which has averaged near 55,000 this season and about 10,000 fans below capacity. Even less fans are likely to be in attendance Monday night as the Cardinals are playing Game 5 of the World Series less than a mile away at Busch Stadium. Since laying double-digits on the road is a poor percentage play in the NFL, and the Rams don’t match-up well in this contest and now start a backup QB, the total is where we look for potential profit.  Against a comparable top-tier and physical opponent at home, the Rams were run over by the 49ers 35-11. They were out-rushed 219-18 in that Thursday night embarrassment. To avoid a similar result on Monday Night Football, the Rams will need to run the ball more and try to control the ball, clock and chains. I expect Seattle to run the ball often with bruising back Marshawn Lynch averaging 20 carries per game and nearly 600 rushing yards this season.  Five of the last six games between these two teams have gone ‘under’ the total with none of those under the total winners reaching 34 combined points. In a division game with a stronger effort from the home underdog, well give an opinion on ‘under’ the total.